You might not know who will be Tennessee' starting quarterback by the end of the 2004 season. But no matter who emerges as UT's No. 1 quarterback, you can count on him being better than average.

Although UT might not always have a future first-round draft pick at quarterback, it invariably has one of the top four or five quarterbacks in the SEC.

That's not just recruiting. That's good evaluating.

Look how much difficulty the NFL has judging quarterbacks. For every Peyton Manning, there's a Ryan Leaf. For every Donovan McNabb, there's an Akili Smith.

If the NFL can be so wrong so often, it's a wonder college coaches ever get it right. They have neither the time nor money to invest in the recruiting process. They rarely see a quarterback play in person more than once.

"It's a little bit of a crapshoot, there's no doubt," UT offensive coordinator Randy Sanders said.

And the stakes are huge. Signing the wrong quarterback could set your program back a year or more.

Suppose Peyton Manning had been a bust, instead of a UT All-American. Or suppose Casey Clausen hadn't been good enough to start as a true freshman.

If you're right about a quarterback, you can benefit for years. Manning and Clausen each started four years for the Vols.

With so much on the line, coaches have to look for much more than the obvious in evaluating a quarterback. Everything counts.

Ole Miss coach David Cutcliffe, who was an offensive coordinator at UT, is evaluating a quarterback recruit even when they're having dinner.

"I want to see how long it takes for him to make a decision on what to order," Cutcliffe said. "If a guy sits there all day trying to make a decision, he's probably not going to be my quarterback.

"Think how decisive you have to be as a quarterback. You've got 2.5 or 2.7 seconds. You live with that decision once the ball leaves your hand."

Cutcliffe has an advantage over the average college coach. He coached Peyton Manning at UT and Eli Manning at Ole Miss. He knows how a great college quarterback prepares, practices and performs.

Kentucky's Rich Brooks, who has been a head coach in the NFL and college, also knows what to look for.

"One, you want ability," Brooks said. "Two, he has to have intelligence, and three, he has to have a big desire to be successful and be a leader. He has to have the ability to understand everything on the field."

Arm strength and athleticism are more easily determined. The rest, as Sanders says, is a "crapshoot."

"You talk to high school head coaches, principles, teachers, the secretaries in the office," Sanders said. "You talk to everybody you can to find out as much as you can.

"Can you trust it? Not always. But you have to form your own opinion."

Even if you see and hear all the right things, you still can't be sure. Some athletes peak earlier, some later. Moreover, you can't be sure how the best high school athletes will adapt to a different level of competition.

"You don't know how they will respond to being around a lot of great athletes," Georgia coach Mark Richt said. "And there's no way to know for sure how he will react to the job. In our league, there is as much pressure as there is in the NFL."

As much pressure as there is on a college quarterback, there's just as much on the coaches trying to recruit them. One mistake can get you beat.

John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.