Suppose someone would have offered to bet you in 1989 that neither Oklahoma nor Southern Cal would finish in the top 10 in football for all of the 1990s.

You probably would have said, "How much?" And you would have lost it all.

Now that the Trojans and Sooners are competing for national championships again, it's even harder to believe neither one cracked the final top 10 in the 1990s. They're proof positive that no matter how good your football program is, there's no guarantee it will stay that way.

They also prove it's easier to hire the wrong coach than the right one.

Oklahoma won three national championships in the 1950s under coach Bud Wilkinson. It won three more under Barry Switzer in 1974, 1975 and 1985. And it won another national championship under Bob Stoops in 2000.

But in between Switzer and Stoops were Gary Gibbs, Howard Schnellenberger and John Blake. How could anyone go 12-22 in three years at Oklahoma? Ask Blake.

USC won national championships under coaches John McKay and John Robinson. And finally, it won another one last year under Pete Carroll.

While the Trojans won five national titles from 1962 through 1978, they didn't even finish in the top 10 from 1990 through 2001.

They went through a series of coaches. They even brought back Robinson, whose coaching sequel was nothing like the original.

Carroll succeeded where his predecessors failed. He accomplished for USC what Stoops did for Oklahoma. Like Stoops, he didn't take long.

Stoops won a national championship in his second season at Oklahoma. Carroll won a national title in his third year at USC.

Not only have they won big and fast, they have their programs in position to contend for another championship in 2004.

1. Oklahoma: The Sooners suffered fewer losses than either USC or LSU and should be primed to finish what they started in 2003.

2. Southern Cal: The Trojans have added the nation's top-ranked recruiting class to an already talented team.

3. LSU: Seven starters return from the nation's best defense, and the Tigers can build their offense around sophomore tailback Justin Vincent, the MVP of the SEC championship game and the Sugar Bowl.

4. Texas: No, the Longhorns won't beat Oklahoma but they could beat everybody else. Quarterback Vince Young occasionally looks like a tall Michael Vick, four starters return in the offensive line, and linebacker Derrick Johnson will again anchor the defense.

5. Georgia: Three All-SEC players — end David Pollack, linebacker Odell Thurman and safety Thomas Davis — will make for a great defensive nucleus, and the offense still has quarterback David Greene to lead a veteran unit.

6. Miami: Quarterback Brock Berlin will have to improve because the defense won't be as good. The Hurricanes' schedule will include eight teams which played in bowls last season.

7. Wisconsin: The Badgers' strong offensive line, which returns intact from last season, will be even better with a healthy Anthony Davis back at tailback. The non-conference schedule is soft, and Wisconsin won't have to play Michigan.

8. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have some of the same concerns as arch-rival Michigan: a new quarterback and a revamped front seven on defense. At least, the Wolverines must play in Columbus this year.

9. Michigan: The Wolverines must break in a new quarterback and replace four starters on their defensive front seven. Quarterback Matt Gutierrez, who replaces John Navarre will be throwing to a talented group of receivers.

10. Florida State: The Seminoles return nine offensive starters but their defense must be rebuilt. Opening at Miami on Labor Day looks ominous.

11. West Virginia: With 16 starters returning, the Mountaineers could win the watered-down Big East.

12. Tennessee: The Vols will play Florida, Auburn and Georgia in the first four games, but they could win out after the second Saturday in October.

13. Auburn: The Tigers return only two starters from their front seven on defense. Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown will again give Auburn the best pair of running backs in the SEC, but quarterback Jason Campbell remains a question mark.

14. Kansas State: The Wildcats lost 12 starters, but that's no big deal under coach Bill Snyder, who has repeatedly replaced good players with more good players.

15. Clemson: The Tigers will return 14 starters, including star quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, from a team that finished strong in 2003. However, Clemson must play both Miami and Florida State on the road.

16. Utah: Seventeen starters return from a 10-2 team. If the Utes win their opener against Texas A&M, they could make a run at the top 10.

17. California: Coach Jeff Tedford is college football's hottest offensive guru and has talented quarterback Aaron Rodgers to execute his creative plan. The defense returns eight starters but remains a work in progress.

18. Fresno State: If quarterback Paul Pinegar recovers from a torn chest muscle suffered last season, the Bulldogs should win the WAC. They return 17 starters, including what could be their best offensive line.

19. Louisville: The offense is loaded, but the Cardinals must shore up a defense that gave up 42.8 points per game in its last four outings.

20. Texas Christian: The Horned Frogs are deep at all the skill positions on offense. They lack starting experience but not speed on defense.

21. Memphis: After their first bowl season in 32 years, the Tigers are capable of winning their first Conference USA title. They return all 11 starters from an offense that averaged 444.5 yards per game.

22. Toledo: The Mid-American Conference's premier offense should have few problems scoring, but the Rockets must replace the front four on defense.

23. Purdue: The offense could be the best in the Big Ten. It better be to make up for a defense that lost eight starters.

24. Florida: Quarterback Chris Leak gives the Gators a chance every Saturday, but the Gators' inexperienced secondary too often will give opponents a better chance.

25. Nebraska: Although new coach Bill Callahan has concentrated on revamping the offense, defense is still the team's strength.

John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.