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Where are we going bowling?
Is it going to be Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta or maybe even Tampa?
The answer: It probably doesn't matter, if your concern is how it will affect the Vols' bowl hopes.
UT athletic director Mike Hamilton has visited with representatives from all of the bowls and feels he has laid a good foundation.
But for all of Hamilton's efforts and good will, barring Tennessee scoring an upset win over Auburn in the SEC championship game, the Vols' postseason bowl plans hinge on how other teams fare.
Assuming Tennessee beats Vanderbilt next Saturday and Kentucky on Nov. 27 and plays in the SEC championship game, here's a breakdown of the five bowl options for the Vols.
(Remember, all bets are off on the probability factors if Vandy or Kentucky upset Tennessee)
The first option, the Sugar Bowl, would become a certainty should the
Vols score an upset victory in their rematch with Auburn.
Probability: 14-percent.
Most likely opponent: W. Virginia.
The second option, the Outback Bowl, is the most likely bowl for the Vols should the Tigers better UT in the SEC title game and other favorites win out.
Probability: 50-percent.
Most likely opponent: Iowa.
The third option, the Citrus Bowl, becomes a possibility if UT loses to Auburn and:
A) Georgia beats Auburn and Georgia Tech and slips into the BCS as an at-large, and, LSU loses one of its final three games to Alabama, Ole Miss or Arkansas, or,
B) Georgia loses to Auburn and Georgia Tech, and, LSU loses to Alabama, Ole Miss or Arkansas.
Probability: 15-percent.
Most likely opponent: Michigan
The fourth option, the Cotton Bowl, could be where UT spends New Year's if the Vols lose to Auburn and: LSU wins the remainder of its games and is selected by the Citrus Bowl, and, Auburn and/or Georgia Tech defeats Georgia and the Outback chooses the Bulldogs over the Vols, and Alabama loses to LSU or Auburn.
Probability: 15-percent
Most likely opponent: Loser of Texas-Texas A&M
The fifth option, the Peach Bowl, becomes a possibility if Georgia splits with Auburn and Georgia Tech and goes to the Citrus Bowl and, LSU wins out and goes to the Cotton Bowl and, South Carolina wins at Florida and at Clemson and is selected by the Outback Bowl, and Alabama loses to Auburn and LSU.
Probability: 3-percent.
Most likely opponent: Virginia Tech/Miami/Virginia
The sixth option, the Music City bowl, becomes a possibility if Tennessee stumbles against Kentucky or Vanderbilt, but still manages to go to the SEC title game and loses to Auburn. Also, South Carolina, Alabama and Florida would need to beat the odds and close their seasons with at least one more upset victory apiece.
Probability: 2.5-percent.
Most likely opponent: Ohio State-Purdue winner
The seventh option, the Independence bowl, becomes a possibility with a UT loss to Kentucky or Vanderbilt, and another loss in the SEC title game, and, if South Carolina, Alabama and Florida score upset victories. Then, both the Music City and the Independence Bowl would have to choose Florida over Tennessee, and the Gators would get to choose their bowl game.
Probability: 0.5-percent.
Most likely opponent: Kansas State/Nebraska/Texas Tech
AUBURN: Could be competing for a national title in January, or could be playing a bowl game in Florida or Texas. The Tigers have a tough road ahead with Georgia, Alabama and likely Tennessee in the SEC championship game. If the Vols upset the Tigers, Auburn is likely headed to the Citrus Bowl or the Cotton Bowl.
GEORGIA: Should the Bulldogs beat Auburn and Georgia Tech, they could make the BCS as an at-large, but they might need both Texas and Utah to lose for that to happen. Georgia played in Orlando last season, but their geographic proximity makes them an attractive team for the Florida bowls.
LSU: The Bayou Bengals haven't been to Orlando in 25 years, and hasn't been to Florida since 1988. If LSU wins out, its an attractive option with a rabid fan following a shiny national championship rings from the 2004 Sugar Bowl.
TENNESSEE: The Vols didn't travel well to the Citrus Bowl in 2002 to play Michigan, and with a loss in the SEC championship game UT loses more luster. Mike Hamilton is selling the bowls on the idea that the Big Orange nation will travel to follow a young, promising team.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Can the Gamecocks beat Florida or Clemson? An 8-3 or 7-4 South Carolina team would travel well and would be attractive to the bowls, especially if coach Lou Holtz announces that this is his last game before retirement.
ALABAMA: The mighty Crimson Tide needs to beat LSU or Auburn to enhance their bowl status. Alabama hasn't been to a bowl since winning the 1999 SEC Championship Game, and would bring legions of fans to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta or the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
FLORIDA: The Gators need to win another game to avoid the bottom-of-the-barrel SEC bowls. With a win over South Carolina or Florida State, and a new coach in place before the bowl game, the Gators would bring some momentum. Who would have thought a Florida-Miami Peach Bowl was a possibility?
REMAINING SEC SCHEDULE:
Nov. 20
Auburn at Alabama, TBA
Arkansas at Mississippi St., TBA
Florida at Florida State, TBA
Ole Miss at LSU, TBA
South Carolina at Clemson, TBA
Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 12:30 p.m.
Nov. 26
LSU at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m.
Nov. 27
Georgia Tech at Georgia, TBA
Kentucky at Tennessee, TBA
Mississippi St. at Ole Miss, TBA
Dec. 4
SEC championship game
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