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Hamilton monitoring all bowl scenarios
It's that simple.
But then, what if?
What if Auburn, seemingly unstoppable and hungry to impress voters, steamrolls the Vols en route to a Bowl Championship Series bowl?
And, what if, South Carolina coach Lou Holtz announces this bowl game will be his last, making the already-attractive Gamecocks appear pretty as peacocks to bowl and television representatives?
"I have talked through every potential scenario,'' UT athletic director Mike Hamilton said. "I feel pretty good about where we are, but I'm monitoring all the scenarios.''
Hamilton, then UT's first-year athletic director, came in on the back end of the bowl scene last year and was left scrambling to avoid a return trip to the Peach Bowl.
As it turned out, a 10-2 UT team ranked No. 6 in the nation and tied atop the SEC East Division couldn't avoid the trip to Atlanta.
Remember?
Georgia, the SEC championship game loser, went to the Capital One Bowl in Orlando, Ole Miss went to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and Florida -- a team the Vols beat head-to-head -- was selected by the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla.
The Outback's decision to select the local Gators over the 10-2 Vols created an uproar in the SEC league office, but commissioner Mike Slive was powerless to do anything about their selection.
The Outback Bowl was merely exercising the options in its contract, which lasts for yet another year.
The Vols might be shunned by the Outback Bowl again, though Outback representatives aren't ready to tip their hand at this point and are still considering scenarios for six teams.
Hamilton has spoken with Outback Bowl president Jim McVay and said the two "understand each other's situation." At this point, Hamilton has hopes that the renewed enthusiasm UT fans have shown for this year's Vols could sway bowl officials.
Hamilton has assured all bowls that UT would sell its ticket minimum, and then some. In the case of the Outback, the minimum is 11,000 seats.
But there remain scenarios where UT might need to settle for a trip to the Peach or the Music City Bowl in Nashville should it not take care of business against Auburn.
At this point, Hamilton said he's not willing to guarantee more than the ticket minimum to any bowl -- as Auburn did with the Citrus Bowl (now Capital One) in 2000, a move that led to the Vols getting shipped to the Cotton.
Here's an updated look at the Vols' various bowl scenarios:
Sugar Bowl: Becomes a certainty should the Vols score an upset victory in their rematch with Auburn in the SEC championship game.
Odds: 10-to-1.
Most likely opponent: Boston College
Outback Bowl: Becomes a possibility if UT loses to Auburn, Georgia beats Georgia Tech and goes to the Capital One, and LSU drops one of its final two games and is selected by the Cotton.
The Outback, however, could opt for a 7-4 South Carolina team over UT should the Gamecocks defeat Clemson. The Outback might still take USC at 6-5 if coach Lou Holtz announces his retirement.
The Outback might also reach for Florida if the Gators upset Florida State and put a new coach in place before the New Year's Day kickoff.
Probability: 3-to-1.
Most likely opponent: Iowa/Wisconsin.
Capital One Bowl: Becomes a possibility if UT loses to Auburn and Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, and, LSU loses to Ole Miss or Arkansas.
Probability: 12-to-1.
Most likely opponent: Wisconsin/Iowa/Michigan
Cotton Bowl: Appears to be the most likely bowl spot for the Vols should they lose to Auburn, and LSU wins out and is selected by the Capital One, and the Outback chooses Georgia over Tennessee.
Probability: 2.5-to-1
Most likely opponent: Texas/Texas A&M winner
Peach Bowl: It could happen yet again if Georgia beats Georgia Tech and is selected by Capital One, and LSU loses one of its final two games and is selected by the Cotton, and the Outback jumps on the travel-friendly Gamecocks from South Carolina.
Probability: 20-to-1
Most likely opponent: Virginia Tech/Miami/Virginia
Music City Bowl: Becomes a possibility if the Peach scenario plays out for Tennessee and Hamilton elects to deal the Vols out of what would be a fourth trip to Atlanta over the past three years. Even more real if UT stumbles against Kentucky or Vanderbilt, but still manages to go to the SEC title game and loses to Auburn.
Probability: 20-to-1
Most likely opponent: Purdue/Michigan State/Ohio State
Independence Bowl: A possibility with a UT loss to Kentucky or Vanderbilt, and another loss in the SEC title game, and, if South Carolina, Alabama or Florida score an upset win this weekend.
Probability: 105-to-1
Most likely opponent: Colorado/Texas Tech/Missouri/Iowa State
Games To Watch:
Tennessee-Vanderbilt: Style points count for the Vols as they try to enhance their status in the polls and give UT reason to believe this year's bowl will be different than the past two.
South Carolina-Clemson: The Gamecocks greatly enhance their status with a win over the Tigers and become a much larger threat to Tennessee in the Outback scenario. The allure of Holtz and South Carolina's ability to bring 30,000-plus to second tier bowls can't be underestimated.
Florida-Florida State: The Gators become more attractive for the bowl officials in Tampa with a win over Florida State. Florida's even more attractive if they give coach Ron Zook the boot after the game and bring the new guy in for the bowl.
Alabama-Auburn: Could an Alabama upset over Auburn trump the Vols out of the Cotton? Probably not, but an Alabama-Texas matchup would certainly draw some interest and lead to some anxious moments for UT officials.
LSU-Ole Miss: A Rebels' upset here isn't good news for Vols' fans interested in a New Year's Day trip, as it would unseat LSU as the favorite to go to the Capital One and likely place 9-2 Georgia there instead.
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