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Trained pro, crazed fan agree on outcome

My wife and I follow the same college football team, but it's still a mixed marriage of sorts.

I'm a trained, professional sports journalist. Melinda is a crazed fan.

I view the game from a detached point of view with no emotional investment in the outcome. She lives and dies with every play.

I'm the critic. But she's more critical.

There is no middle ground with her. The team is never just OK or pretty good. It's either hopelessly inept or virtually unbeatable.

For example, take last year's 10-3 team. Her typical pregame assessment: "We'll probably lose." Her typical postgame assessment: "We won't win another game."

That was last year.

Last Saturday, she asked, "Where's the national championship game?"

"Miami," I said.

"I want to go," she said.

"You want to see Southern Cal and Oklahoma?" I asked.

"We're going to be there," she said. "Nobody's going to beat us. I can feel it."

UT 31, Auburn 27: This isn't about a feeling. It's about research.

In the past three years, Auburn is 4-7 on the road against teams who finished the season with a winning record. In those 11 games, Auburn averaged only 16 points.

The Tigers might have the best running-back tandem in the country but they still don't have enough offense to outscore the Vols in Neyland Stadium.

Georgia 13, LSU 12: You could pick an All-SEC defense from these two teams alone. The Tigers' defense looked in 2003 form against Mississippi State, but Georgia could be even better with the return of middle linebacker Odell Thurman, who was suspended for the first three games.

Georgia quarterback David Greene hasn't been at his best this season, but he's still an improvement over LSU's Marcus Randall and JaMarcus Russell. Against these defenses, both offenses will look as ugly as Uga VI.

Florida 34, Arkansas 30: A quarterbacking odd couple should make for great entertainment.

Florida quarterback Chris Leak looks right out of a how-to-play-quarterback video. Arkansas quarterback Matt Jones looks as though he's making up the offense as he goes along.

South Carolina 20, Alabama 17: This is one of the biggest games of the Lou Holtz era.

The Gamecocks play Ole Miss in Columbia next Saturday and are at Kentucky the following week. With a victory over the Tide, they should be 6-1 with two weeks to prepare for a home game against UT on Oct. 30.

It's just the kind of breakthrough game the Gamecocks always lose. So why am I picking South Carolina?

Answer: I can feel it.

Vanderbilt 23, Mississippi State 20: Picking the Gamecocks to win a key game is almost as ludicrous as picking the Commodores to win any game. Picking both to win an SEC game on the same day is even more absurd.

Since South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992, the Gamecocks and Commodores have never won a conference game on the same weekend. But like the bumper sticker says, "History happens."

Kentucky 27, Ohio 10: The Wildcats revert to their Indiana form and actually score a touchdown. For Kentucky fans who like to plan ahead, the Wildcats' next scheduled touchdown is Oct. 30 against Mississippi State.

Ole Miss 37, Arkansas State 17: Rebels fans are encouraged to celebrate this victory long and hard.

Their next five games are against South Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas and LSU. And there will be no Manning to the rescue.

Top 25: Oklahoma 52, Texas Tech 24, Miami 27, Georgia Tech 10; Texas 45, Baylor 13; West Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 24; Ohio State 34, Northwestern 17; Florida State 45, North Carolina 10; California 34, Oregon State 31; Purdue 27, Notre Dame 23; Fresno State 34, Louisiana Tech 17; Minnesota 31, Penn State 17; Michigan 41, Indiana 17; Wisconsin 27, Illinois 20; Arizona State 34, Oregon 30; Louisville 45, East Carolina 7; Boise State 55, SMU 20; Oklahoma State 41, Iowa State 20.

Record: 78-9 (.896) overall, 49-38 (.563) against the spread.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.

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