Don't start dreaming of BCS title game

In the state of Alabama, Dreamland means only one thing. It's the name of a barbeque joint famous for ribs and white bread.

However, Dreamland also is a state of mind during football season.

It's a fantasy land populated by folks who believe Tennessee could somehow sneak into the national championship game by running the table in the regular season, and winning the SEC championship game.

Time for a reality check.

Even if Phillip Fulmer's Vols do win out, they have as much chance of leapfrogging nine to 11 teams into the national championship game as you or I have of claiming $250 million in the lottery.

Tennessee (5-1) is No. 13 in this week's coaches' poll and No. 11 by writers in the Associated Press rankings.

Since the Bowl Championship Series began in 1998, no team outside the top 10 in either poll in mid-October has ever come close to qualifying for the national title game. In fact, 3.6 is the average mid-October poll ranking of the 12 teams that have played in the BCS title game since 1998.

Check out the mid-season rankings for the participants in the BCS title games:

• Oct. 18, 1998: Tennessee (No. 3 AP, No. 4 coaches) defeated Florida State (No. 6 AP, No. 6 coaches).

• Oct. 17, 1999: Florida State (No. 1 AP, No. 1 coaches) defeated Virginia Tech (No. 4 AP, No. 4 coaches).

• Oct. 15, 2000: Oklahoma (No. 3 AP, No. 4 coaches) defeated Florida State (No. 6 AP, No. 6 coaches).

• Oct. 21, 2001: Miami (No. 1 AP, No. 1 coaches) defeated Nebraska (No. 3 AP, No. 3 coaches).

• Oct. 20, 2002: Ohio State (No. 4 AP, No. 4 coaches) def. Miami (No. 1 AP, No. 1 coaches).

• Oct. 19, 2003: LSU (No. 9 AP, No. 9 coaches) def. Oklahoma (No. 1 AP, No. 1 coaches).

When the first BCS standings of the season are announced this afternoon, you'll notice some significant and confusing changes.

For one thing, no longer will the weekly AP and coaches rank of each team be averaged. In the old system UT's poll average would be 12 (No. 13 coaches, No. 11 AP).

In the new system, each team's AP poll vote total is divided by the maximum perfect score of 1625. Thus, UT's AP vote total of 999 points is divided by 1625, which yields .615.

In the poll of 61 coaches, UT's point total of 815 is divided by a possible perfect total of 1525, which yields .534.

So, Tennessee's score of .615 and .534 in the two polls will account for two thirds of its BCS ranking. The other one-third will come from six computer rankings - Sagarin, Hester, Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Massey and Wolfe. The New York Times withdrew.

There is some good news for the Vols.

UT is No. 7 in the most recent adjusted version of the Sagarin ratings the BCS uses, which is calculated without margin of victory as a factor. The Vols have eked out close wins over Florida, Georgia and Ole Miss, which would have hurt them under the original 1998 system that used margin of victory.

If you're thoroughly confused, click on BCSfootball.org.

Got it?

Dreamland is about ribs and white bread. Forget the BCS title game at the Orange Bowl.

Gary Lundy may be reached at 865-342-6274.