Lundy: Florida's loss hurts UT's status

The reaction of UT fans will undoubtedly be quite different today after the latest Bowl Championship Series computer ratings are released.

Like it or not, Gators' coach Ron Zook isn't going down the tube by himself. He's dragging the Vols down with him.

The Sagarin ratings released Sunday gave us a hint of that. Tennessee (6-1) plummeted five spots, from No. 7 to No. 12, in the Sagarin list used by the BCS.

One factor to consider: UT's win over Florida in September doesn't look nearly as impressive after hapless Mississippi State upset the Gators.

Because strength of schedule is a factor in computer rankings, it would have been better for the Vols in the computer rankings if Florida had taken care of business against the Bulldogs. The computers count one-third of the BCS standings.

It remains to be seen whether some of the other five computer rankings in the BCS follow suit today in ranking UT lower, but there are indications that will happen. In one version of the Massey rankings, not used by the BCS, UT fell three spots Sunday. The BCS version of Massey and other computer calculations will be released today.

With an unimpressive 17-13 win over Alabama, the Vols didn't make much headway in the latest polls, either. Still ranked No. 11 in the Associated Press poll, Tennessee's BCS number (based on voting points) will move up only a hair, from .615 to .619. In the coaches' poll, the Vols inched up one slot to No. 12, and their BCS rating will get a slight bump to .567.

What does it all mean?

It means that if the odds of Tennessee qualifying for the national title game in the Orange Bowl were 500-to-1 last week, the chances are closer to 1,000-to-1 this week.

History proves you just don't leap from No. 11 and No. 12 in the polls this late in the season to No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS by early December.

Get to No. 5 by Dec. 5 with an 11-1 record after the SEC title game? Yes. Get in the top two? Nope.

Since the BCS system began in 1998, LSU came from furthest back in the pack to play for the national title in 2003. However, at this point last season -- with four regular-season games left -- the Tigers had already moved up to No. 7 in one poll and No. 8 in the other.

The good news for Tennessee is that it will be favored to win its remaining four games and play in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. The early betting line has the Vols a 3-point favorite going into Saturday's game at South Carolina.

The bad news is that UT's strength of schedule will suffer down the stretch after Saturday, with the final three games against Notre Dame, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Boston College's win over Notre Dame certainly didn't help the Vols in that area.

That's the reality of the BCS system.

Gary Lundy may be reached at 865-342-6274.