Adams: Rash of college upsets take toll on unbeatens

Our archaic method of determining a national champion in college football seems slightly less archaic when there's a neatly wrapped package of two unbeaten teams, each from a BCS-approved conference.

There was no tidy ending in place last weekend. You had seven unbeaten teams, including five - Southern California, Oklahoma, Auburn, Miami and Wisconsin - from Bowl Championship Series conferences. You also could make a strong argument that six of those teams would finish the season unbeaten.

That's four unbeaten teams too many when you determine a national champion by polls and computers.

But the beauty of college football is its unpredictability. The polls, computers and even the oddsmakers can't account for that.

After last weekend, unbeaten Miami had five games remaining. There were tough games ahead at Virginia and at home against Virginia Tech. Clemson, which finished strong last season, was a long-shot threat. So was Wake Forest, whose four losses were all by seven points or less.

North Carolina was clearly the least threatening opponent on the Hurricanes' schedule. It had lost by 34 points to Louisville, by 32 to Virginia, by 30 to Utah and by 22 to Florida State.

So what happens? The 21-point underdog Tar Heels play the Hurricanes off their feet in winning 31-28.

On the same day that Miami lost, Oklahoma almost lost. Oklahoma State was one missed field goal away from taking the Sooners into overtime.

You can expect more upsets and near upsets in the last month of the season. That's the nature of college football. And that's why it's so unfair to decide a champion by any other means than a playoff.

The polls, computers and oddsmakers give us favorites, not winners. Miami was a 21-point favorite against North Carolina. Oops.

Nationally ranked Texas A&M was a 22-point favorite against Baylor on Saturday. It lost in overtime. Oops again.

There are more "oops" ahead. And you probably won't see them coming.

Southern Cal has looked invincible in winning its last three games by an average of 35 points. But it hasn't looked nearly as dominant as Oklahoma did last season before being routed by Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game. If North Carolina can beat Miami, you can't assume that Notre Dame and UCLA have no chance of upsetting the Trojans.

Nor can you assume that just because Oklahoma beat Texas A&M 77-0 last season that it will beat them again Saturday.

Unbeaten Wisconsin, which has scored more than 24 points only once this season, still has to play Minnesota at home before closing the season on the road against Michigan State and Iowa.

Of the undefeated teams, Auburn has the most difficult schedule. Its stretch run will include games against Georgia (7-1), Alabama (5-3) and probably Tennessee (7-1) in the SEC championship game.

No one has come within 14 points of unbeaten Utah, but the Utes still have to play at Laramie, where Wyoming is unbeaten this season, and against arch-rival BYU in the last game of the regular season.

Boise State doesn't have a winning team left on its schedule. How could anyone imagine the unbeaten Broncos losing to San Jose State, Louisiana Tech or Nevada.

But then, how could anyone imagine Miami losing to North Carolina?

Top 25: My AP ballot looked like this: 1. Auburn, 2. Southern Cal, 3. Oklahoma, 4. California, 5. Utah, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Tennessee, 8. Georgia, 9. Texas, 10. Michigan, 11. Miami, 12. Louisville, 13. Boise State, 14. Florida State, 15. Arizona State, 16. Virginia, 17. Texas A&M, 18. Oklahoma State, 19. Virginia Tech, 20. West Virginia, 21. LSU, 22. Iowa, 23. Southern Mississippi, 24. Boston College, 25. UTEP.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com