If you had told me two weeks ago that Erik Ainge wouldn't be Tennessee's starting quarterback, I would have been shocked. If you had told me two days ago, I would have been surprised.

What happened in between?

Day after day, UT coach Phillip Fulmer and his assistants kept telling us that Ainge or Rick Clausen was a flip of the coin. That can wear on you. It can even make you question your theories.

Something else happened, too. The scrimmage numbers -- attempts, completions and interceptions -- kept coming up in Clausen's favor.

So if Fulmer had told the media after Saturday's practice that Clausen would be UT's starting quarterback, my jaw wouldn't have hit the ground. But it might have dropped to my waistline.

Ainge simply has too much going for him. Or, as Fulmer put it, "a little bit more ability" and "a little bit more arm."

Actually, the disparity in mobility and arm strength isn't that close, but Clausen is not without attributes. His poise under pressure was evident when he was thrust into a starting role because of injuries to Ainge and Brent Schaeffer last season. His coolness was evident again this preseason in the competition for the starting job.

Some of his assets are more tangible. He's an accurate passer, whose arm strength seemingly has increased since he transferred from LSU.

In fact, UT could win the SEC championship with either Ainge or Clausen at quarterback.

But Fulmer is thinking bigger than that. He's thinking Ainge might have the potential to become UT's next great quarterback.

And even with the immense supporting talent on this team, it might take a great quarterback to win a national championship.

Fulmer doesn't downplay how he feels about this team. How often have you seen him so confident or optimistic about a football team?

When his first two centers suffered injuries in preseason practice, Fulmer moved guard Rob Smith to center and intimated that the move could enhance the offense. He raves about his depth of talent in the offensive line and at wide receiver. He doesn't sound like a coach who's just shooting for a conference championship.

On choosing a starting quarterback, he said, "It's about making a decision off what you think can get you to the Rose Bowl."

I like that. On a team as obviously talented and experienced as this one, there's no point in concealing your goals. If you're going for it all, you might as well say so. It's not as though you're going to sneak up on anybody.

With so much at stake, you can't determine your starting quarterback on scrimmages or statistics alone. Fulmer said he watched every play of last season before making this decision.

Remember last season? Remember how Ainge rallied the Vols in the fourth quarter against Florida? Remember how he helped beat heavily favored Georgia on the road?

If he can do that much as a true freshman, what might he accomplish with more experience and a better supporting cast?

It's not just about potential. It's about a complete offense. As much as Fulmer preaches "pounding the rock," offensive coordinator Randy Sanders wants a balanced offense that isn't limited by a quarterback's arm strength.

You have to look below the first team to find limitations with this offense. Fulmer is looking below the second team.

His strength as a coach might be his thoroughness in planning and preparation. He's now planning for the worst-case scenario at quarterback. No Ainge? No Clausen? Then what?

"Probably Lucas Taylor," Fulmer said. "Somebody like that. Sinclair Cannon was a quarterback in high school. To give us our best chance to win a championship, that's probably what we'd do.

"Best chance to win a championship": Notice how he keeps coming back to that.

Taylor's elusiveness in the open field already has been evident as a freshman wide receiver in scrimmages. He rushed for 539 yards in a single game as a high school quarterback at Carencro (La.) High School. Cannon, a redshirt freshman defensive back, rushed for 1,634 yards as a high school quarterback in Greer, S.C.

UT found out last season how important a third-string quarterback could be. It also found out in 1998.

The Vols won the 1998 national championship by beating Florida State, which was down to third-string quarterback Marcus Outzen after losing Dan Kendra and Chris Weinke to injuries.

FSU would have had a better chance of beating the Vols if it had moved All-American wide receiver Peter Warrick to quarterback and let him run from the shotgun formation. Warrick, a former option quarterback, was rendered useless as a wide receiver by Outzen's limitations as a passer.

So give Fulmer credit for thinking ahead. And give him credit for thinking big.