The SEC's off-season was all about change. But the last team standing might be the one standing pat.

Florida, South Carolina, LSU and Ole Miss made head-coaching changes. Georgia and Auburn replaced their defensive coordinators.

And Tennessee didn't make a move.

The Vols return 16 starters from a team that won the SEC East. Returning, too, is the most-stable staff in the conference. Dean of SEC coaches Phillip Fulmer returns for his 13th full season as head coach; John Chavis is in his 11th season as UT's defensive coordinator; Randy Sanders is in his seventh season as offensive coordinator.

They have more talent than anytime since 1999. They also have two proven quarterbacks in Erik Ainge and Rick Clausen.

Most of their competition would settle for one proven quarterback. Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas and Auburn open the season with a different quarterback than the one who started the 2004 season opener.

Florida's Chris Leak, one of the league's most-established quarterbacks, might not feel so established. He will have to adjust to coach Urban Meyer's new offense.

The biggest offensive transition will be at South Carolina. Former coach Lou Holtz and new coach Steve Spurrier might be buddies, but you couldn't tell it by their offenses, which are worlds apart.

How strange it will be to see Spurrier on South Carolina's sideline instead of Florida. It will be almost as strange to see someone other than David Greene as Georgia's quarterback, or someone other than Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown carrying the ball on Auburn's behalf.

If you want to see Nick Saban throwing a fit on the sideline, you will have to watch the Miami Dolphins. Les Miles has replaced him as LSU's head coach.

But in a season of change, the SEC's most-stable program is the pick to prevail.

East 1. Tennessee (11-1, 7-1 SEC) - You think the Vols had a good defense during an off-season of legal troubles? This fall's defense is a dream team, featuring All-SEC candidates Jesse Mahelona, Parys Haralson, Jason Allen, Kevin Simon and Omar Gaither.

2. Florida (9-2, 6-2) - The players lost a good buddy in Ron Zook. They found a good coach in Urban Meyer.

3. Georgia (9-2, 6-2) - Bulldogs coach Mark Richt says new quarterback D.J. Shockley will "hit the ground running." Fine. But what about his passing?

4. South Carolina (5-6, 3-5) - After every Gamecocks offensive possession, the public-address announcer at Williams-Brice Stadium should say: "The Gamecocks are coached by Steve Spurrier." Otherwise, no one will believe this is a Spurrier offense.

5. Vanderbilt (3-8, 1-7) - From The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction Department: Two Vanderbilt juniors - defensive end Jovan Haye and fullback Matthew Tant - declared for the NFL draft after last season. They won't be around to celebrate the Commodores' rise to fifth in the East.

6. Kentucky (1-10, 0-8) - The biggest upset of 2004: David Cutcliffe lost his job at Ole Miss; Kentucky coach Rich Brooks kept his.

West 1. LSU (10-2, 7-1) - LSU spent the off-season renovating Tiger Stadium and trying to settle on a starting quarterback. All the renovations won't be ready for the season opener, but maybe quarterback JaMarcus Russell will be.

2. Auburn (9-2, 6-2) - You can't discount the Tigers as a championship contender. Not after they went 13-0 last year. Not after coach Tommy Tuberville said this team would have more talent.

3. Alabama (7-4, 4-4) - Remember when Tide fans would have been outraged at a 7-4 season? No, I can't remember that far back, either.

4. Arkansas (6-5, 4-4) - Forget the "calling of the Hogs." The Razorbacks should be calling for help. Their road schedule includes USC, Alabama, Georgia and LSU.

5. Ole Miss (5-6, 3-5) - A change of coaches didn't address the Rebels' No. 1 problem: They don't have a Manning at quarterback.

6. Mississippi State (4-7, 2-6) - You might not notice it in the standings, but the Bulldogs will make progress in coach Sylvester Croom's second season. The non-conference schedule will help. There's no Maine on it.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284.