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Pennington: Expectations for UT coach are lofty
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Then I wondered aloud if this was a sign of real concerns or if it was just a case of "I learned my lesson last year and I'm not going to hype my team again." The response I got surprised me.
"Doesn't matter." "It doesn't matter?" "Nope, doesn't matter."
"What do you mean?"
"If Tennessee does worse than 8-4 this season, Fulmer needs to go."
8-4? Granted, that would mean a two-year record of 13-10 (not counting whatever bowl the Vols would go to in 2006), but wouldn't 8-4 show that the program was, at least, headed back in the right direction?
"No," the guy answers. By this point, several other folks had ambled up around us to listen. "A school like UT, with their budget and their fan support, should never go 8-4. Rebuilding year or not."
"Never?" "Never."
I noticed some heads nodding around us. "You guys agree?"
"Absolutely. Tennessee should never go 8-4." "8-4 is for South Carolina. On a good year."
At this point, I asked if their expectations might be just a tad too high. The general consensus was "absolutely not." (This being a family-oriented paper, I'll not report some of the actual exclamations.)
One in the group then muttered something about a "mouthpiece" clearly disgusted that I might chalk up an 8-4 season to increased parity, bad luck, or maybe even a "perfect storm." (Mouthpiecing can be a very lucrative business, I'm sure, but I've yet to receive a check from the UT Board of Trustees. Dang it.)
At any rate, this got me to thinking. This was a group of about six or seven Vol fans, all between the ages of 25 and 45, and they all seemed to agree that an 8-4 season at Tennessee is unacceptable.
Is it? Or are some folks' expectations just a bit too high?
Looking at the records of some Hall of Fame coaches (and some others who are sure to wind up there), I found some interesting numbers.
For one, coaching legends like Frank Broyles, Wally Butts, Bobby Dodd, Vince Dooley, Pat Dye, Shug Jordan, and even Amos Alonzo Stagg would have failed these guys' litmus test. Not a single one of those coaches would average (according to their winning percentage) more than 8.3 wins per year against a 12-game schedule.
Woody Hayes, John McKay, Ara Parseghian, Darrell Royal and Joe Paterno also would be on the firing line. Each of those coaches would average between 8.5 and 9 wins per year which means that while their highs might have reached 11-1s and 12-0s, their down years would have found them in the 8-4 and 7-5 range. Uh-oh.
So what if coaches would average 9 wins per year (which, face it, would still leave them with the occasional 8-4 or worse)? Paul "Bear" Bryant, Bob Neyland, Bo Schembechler, and Bobby Bowden to name a few. Good to know that Neyland would at least stand a fighting chance of survival.
Four really big winners were Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne of Nebraska and Bud Wilkinson and Barry Switzer of Oklahoma. They would average between 9.4 and 9.9 wins per season. Of course, their successes came in the old Big Eight conference, which at the time, was more like the Big Two. Think they could win nearly 10 games a year against the current SEC lineup? Or the current Big 12, for that matter?
There were another couple of guys who would average more than nine wins in a 12-game season. Steve Spurrier with a 9.1 win-per-season average. And Phillip Fulmer at 9.3 wins. Well whaddya know?
But let's be a bit more realistic. Maybe my focus group was just looking at things based on the past few Tennessee seasons. Maybe they think the program has taken a turn for the worse and it can't be corrected.
But what about this case? Coach X wins national titles in 1961, 1964, and 1965. Then the wheels fall off. Between 1967 and 1970 his teams win 8 games, 8 games, 6 games and 6 games. Surely, this guy would have to go, right?
Only if you want to fire Bear Bryant, who turned things around at Alabama and went on to win three more national titles in the 70s.
Vol fans expect wins. They will not settle for losing seasons (nor should they have to). And they should expect at least a couple of SEC title runs per decade.
But if Fulmer has to win at least 9 games this year and every year after? Well, I think Jerry Seinfeld summed it up when he said, "good luck with ALL that."
John Pennington hosts The Hall's Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11
a.m. on WATE. He also writes a blog at govolsxtra.com.
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