"The old gray mare she ain't what she used to be, many long years ago." -- children's song

The NFL draft fires up Saturday at noon and for many Vol fans the top of the draft just isn't as exciting as it used to be. Tennessee has long promoted the fact that only a handful of football programs produce more professional talent than Phillip Fulmer and the Vols.

From 1999 to 2002, a whopping nine Vols were chosen as first-round selections. There have been 12 first-round picks overall since Fulmer took the reins. And going all the way back to 1980, 27 Tennessee players have gone in the initial round. That's incredible production.

But that was then. This is now.

"Well, why don't you love me like you used to do? How come you treat me like a worn out shoe?" -- Hank Williams (by way of Dandy Don Meredith)

I've written previously that UT football has suffered a drop-off (in my opinion) since the 2001 season. More big losses at home, more blowout losses, smaller bowls, etc. Recruiting rankings still are usually very high for Tennessee (No. 1 in America just two years ago), but we've also shown you that those rankings are only accurate predictors of BCS success about 50 percent of the time.

Last year, in the midst of a 5-6 season, in which absolutely nothing went Tennessee's way, there was a lot of talk about the Vols not taking advantage of "all that talent." But look around the SEC and you'll see that talent is more evenly distributed now than at any point in a quarter century.

When the Vols were churning out top-flight "playmakers" to the NFL and ranking in the top 10 nationally year-in and yearout, UT and Florida had the rest of the league in a headlock. Now check the conference records for the past six seasons and you'll find that Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Florida and even South Carolina are all .500 or better.

"All that talent" isn't an accurate description any longer. And NFL scouts seem to know it.

"I've got heartaches by the numbers, troubles by the score." -- Ray Price

The 2003 draft should have heard the name of tight end Jason Witten called in the first round. He's played like an All-Pro since joining the Dallas Cowboys after a surprising drop to the third round.

But that's the way the draft goes. A lot of folks passed on Witten. He wasn't viewed as the "can't miss" playmaker that UT had so often produced in the past.

So Tennessee didn't have a first-round selection at all in 2003. Or in 2004. Or 2005.

This year, safety Jason Allen would certainly be a first-round pick if not for a season-ending injury last year. He's still viewed as a possible top pick by some scouts, but his hip condition (which people are now whispering might be degenerative) could drop him to the second round.

Regardless of where Allen is drafted, the Vols still are in the midst of their longest first-round drought since the 1970s, the nadir of Big Orange football.

"The future's not what it used to be." -- Mickey Newbury

Here are the years (since 1977) that have seen the Vols strike out in the first round of the NFL draft: 1978, 1981, 1987, 1990, 1996, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2005.

To find the last time Tennessee didn't have a first-round pick for three straight drafts you'd have to go all the way back to a six-year stretch from 1971 to 1976.

And depending on Allen's status, Tennessee could see their "no first rounder" streak stretch to four years. At what point will other schools start to use that against the Vols in the recruiting process?

Now, do all successful teams have first-round NFL talent? No. Georgia, West Virginia, LSU, and Alabama are just some of the schools East of the Mississippi which don't have definite No. 1 picks this year, yet they all had successful campaigns last season.

Systems, game plans, injuries, and schedules have a lot to do with wins and losses. And good coaches can win with average talent, at times, too. Matter of fact, the Tennessee staff did a pretty good job in 2004 with a young team.

But when you look at a Tennessee program that's taken more hits to the chin the last few years (five home losses by 17 points or more and no top-10 finishes since 2002), is the lack of top-ofthe-draft "playmakers" just a coincidence? Or is it an example of a drop in overall talent? My guess is the latter, though, there's nothing to say that talent can't rise again (let's see how the signing class of 2005 turns out).

UT talent probably will be a topic of conversation next April, too. Former Cowboys player personnel guru and current NFL.com senior analyst Gil Brandt already has listed his top four players by position for next year's draft. Will things get better for the Vols?

Not according to Brandt. The only Vols he lists toward the top of his position for the '07 draft is offensive lineman Arron Sears.

This fall, if things don't go UT's way, you might find yourself once again asking, "where are all the playmakers on this team?" But look at the recent NFL drafts, and the number of Vols not chosen in the first round, and you'll have your answer. The NFL scouts can't find 'em dressed in orange, either.