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Adams: Oddsmakers think low-Cal, favor Vols

As you might have heard, Tennessee went 5-6 in its last football season. As you also might have heard, UT is opening its season against 12th-ranked Cal.

But are most UT fans worried?

Probably not.

If the Vols’ 12th-ranked opponent were from the Big Ten, Big 12 or ACC, the large majority of UT fans might be considering the reality of a 0-1 beginning to the 2006 season.

But this is the Pac-10. And it isn’t Southern Cal.

I get the message over and over: on the News Sentinel’s morning sports-talk show, on the phone, in emails and in general conversation. UT fans don’t take Pac-10 football seriously.

It’s not just UT fans. It’s SEC fans in general.

To them, it’s the Pac-Thin — all show, no substance; all offense, no defense. They rank it a couple of steps above the Mountain West or Western Athletic conferences, and contend that its defenses hit just slightly harder than an average flag football team.

Never mind that Southern Cal came within a minute of a third consecutive national championship. Pac-10 detractors point out that the only reason USC makes it to the championship game is because it plays in a conference as frilly as the Pac-10.

Even Arkansas coach Houston Nutt questions whether USC would have had such success had it played an SEC schedule. And the Trojans beat his Hogs 70-17 last season.

Perhaps, before going any further, I should point out that I don’t share this dim view of Pac-10 football. No, it’s not as good as the SEC year in and year-out (What conference is?). But yes, USC still would have won two of the last three national championships, even if had played in the SEC.

Sure, the SEC plays the best defense in the country. But it’s not as good as its stats indicate. One of the reasons the SEC is so good on defense is that it’s not so good on offense.

SEC defenses struggled terribly in several non-conference games last season.

LSU ranked third in the country in total defense last season; it gave up an average of 255 yards per game to nine SEC opponents. But it gave up 560 yards to Arizona State.

SEC champion Georgia gave up an average of 298 yards per game to nine SEC opponents. It gave up 502 yards to West Virginia in the Sugar Bowl.

Auburn gave up an average of 295 yards per game to eight SEC opponents. It gave up 548 yards to Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl.

Am I making any headway? I doubt it.

You probably still think the Pac-10 is a sissy conference, and you have some numbers of your own to back it up.

The SEC is 52-28-5 against Pac-10 teams (not including bowl games). In fact, it has a higher winning percentage against the Pac-10 than it does the Big Eight, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 or old Southwest Conference.

The SEC winning percentage against the Pac-10 soars if you discount Southern Cal. Without USC, the Pac-10 is 14-43-5 against the SEC. The Mountain West has fared better than that. So has Conference USA.

If you’re looking for more evidence for your anti-Pac-10 bias, check out Las Vegas. The early betting line has UT a two-point favorite over Cal.

Imagine that. UT returns 11 of 22 starters from a 5-6 team; Cal returns 15 starters from an 8-4 team that overcame a slew of injuries. Yet UT is the favorite.

Obviously, you don’t have to live in the Southeast to take the Pac-10 lightly.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.

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