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Pennington: Did you know? Numbers never lie

You know the line. You've been waiting since last November to hear it again. As of today, you only have six more days to wait.

"It's football time in Tennessee." And this year there are two distinct camps excited to hear that.

There's the positive, pro-Phillip Fulmer crowd. They're the "Gone With The Wind" fans who believe that yesterday is dead and gone and tomorrow truly is another day. To hear them tell it, this new season will be a re-birth of Vol football.

On the other side of the fence, there's a very vocal anti-Fulmer crowd. They apparently believe that Neyland Stadium was built on an Indian burial ground and only more bad football can possibly follow.

Well, I wanted to write something that both camps could use. So enjoy the following numbers, facts, figures, oddities and tidbits. Arm yourselves accordingly for your inter-office and talk-radio shouting matches.

And for those of you who say there are "lies, darn lies and statistics," I only reply, "the numbers never lie."

  • Did you know that Tennessee hasn't lost to a Pac-10 team since 1994 in the infamous Colquitt-Helton-Manning-Stewart vs. UCLA game?
  • Did you know that the Vols are 6-2-1 vs. the Pac-10 dating back to 1985. The only blemishes being that 25-23 loss to the Bruins in '94, a 52-24 loss to Washington State in 1988, and the 26-26 season-opening tie with UCLA in 1985.
  • Did you know that Cal has opened a season in Knoxville? The Golden Bears won 27-17 in Johnny Majors' first game as head coach in 1977.
  • Here's one for the gamblers out there: Did you know that Tennessee was 2-8-1 against the spread last year?

That's not much worse than Cal, which went just 3-7-1. Lesson? Don't bet on Saturday's game.

  • Did you know that among the 10 winningest active coaches in America (with 10 years on the job), four are on the hot seat this fall? Phillip Fulmer, Dennis Franchione (Texas A&M), John L. Smith (Michigan State) and Lloyd Carr (Michigan) are all feeling various degrees of heat despite their overall records.

Two others on that list have been in hot water recently: Joe Paterno (Penn State) prior to last season's revival and Tommy Tuberville (Auburn) who was almost fitted for cement shoes in 2003.

  • There's a large group of Tennessee fans who are penciling in certain games as "sure wins" for the Vols. And Memphis and Arkansas are in most of those W columns despite the fact that both games are on the road.

Did you know that Tennessee hasn't covered the spread against Memphis in the their last five meetings (dating to 1994)? In fact, the Vols have beaten the Tigers by at least two touchdowns in only one of their last seven meetings.

The story's much the same with Arkansas. The Vols have covered the spread in one of their last six games against the Razorbacks, including a six overtime thriller in 2002 (the last time the two teams met).

  • Did you know that the last time UT opened the season against a higher-ranked opponent was a 31-31 tie with eventual national champion Colorado in the 1990 Pigskin Classic?
  • Did you know that Tennessee is 2-5-3 in season openers vs. higher-ranked opponents since 1967?
  • There's a growing number of fans who believe that the SEC is a league made of less-than-stellar offenses and the Pac-10 is made up of track stars who can't take a hit.

There's some truth to that, but it's far from gospel. During last year's bowl season, the SEC teams averaged a 26.7 to 22.8 win vs. non-conference opponents.

The Pac-10 teams averaged a 36.4 to 32.8 win vs. their non-conference matchups.

So while the SEC does play better defense and the Pac-10 does play better offense, it's not all because of the weak offenses faced in the SEC or the weak defenses faced in the Pac-10.

  • Did you know that the Vols' homefield advantage isn't what it once was? In fact, between 1992 and 2001, UT lost just one home game by 17 points or more (Florida in 1994).

Since 2001, the Vols have lost five home games by at least 17 points (Florida, Alabama and Miami in 2002, Georgia in 2003, and Auburn in 2004).

  • Did you know that Tennessee has gone 18-2-2 in its last 22 season openers since 1984? The two losses came at UCLA in 1994 and at Georgia in 1988. The two ties came in 1990 vs. Colorado and in 1985 vs. UCLA.

Consider yourself in the know. Latch on to the stats you like, ignore the ones you don't. Next week, there will be only one stat that matters on Sunday. "Are the Vols 1-0 or 0-1?"

Coaches Chart

John Pennington hosts The Hall's Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE. He also writes a blog at govolsxtra.com.

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