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Adams: Rush for top should be mad scramble in '06

College football was so much simpler in 2005.

Southern Cal was a consensus pick to win a third consecutive national championship. Texas was a consensus top-five pick.

So the USC-Texas Rose Bowl matchup was no surprise. It even made the Bowl Championship Series look good.

Both teams were unbeaten. Both were clearly the top two teams in the country. How could you pick anyone else for the national championship game?

The BCS and all of the voters in all the polls might never have it so good. They likely will be reminded of that often in a 2006 season that promises to be anything but simple.

There's no clear-cut dominant team, and even the best teams in the country have obvious shortcomings. For example, Ohio State lost most of its defense, including its three star linebackers. Texas will have an inexperienced quarterback, Notre Dame still has questions on defense, and USC has virtually no experience at running back.

Amidst all the uncertainty, college football has added a 12th game to the regular season. The result: a suspenseful race for the national championship that could end up with the BCS having to decide which two one-loss teams should play for the title.

1. Ohio State

  • The Buckeyes lost a lot of defense, but they have two of the game's best playmakers in quarterback Troy Smith and wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. Moreover, coach Jim Tressel knows how to win big games. He already has won a national title and is 4-1 in bowl games and against archrival Michigan.

2. USC

  • Despite the uncertainty at tailback there's ample surrounding talent to keep USC competing for a national title. Back-to-back games against Cal and Notre Dame will determine whether the Trojans play for another national championship.

3. Iowa

  • The Hawkeyes have one of the Big 10's best offensive lines and a nice one-two punch in quarterback Drew Tate and running back Albert Young. Cornerback is the biggest concern on defense, but the front four returns intact. Their toughest conference games are at home against Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.

4. Texas

  • You can't expect the Longhorns to beat Ohio State in the second game while breaking in an inexperienced quarterback. But if they can beat Oklahoma a month later, they could stay in the running for back-to-back national championships.

5. Notre Dame

  • Charlie Weis worked wonders in his first season at South Bend. He should have another high-scoring offense, led by quarterback Brady Quinn, but he still might not have quite enough defense to win a national title.

6. Auburn

  • The Tigers have the best combination of quarterback (Brandon Cox) and running back (Kenny Irons) in the SEC. They also have one of the SEC's better offensive lines and what should be another solid defense. A conference schedule that includes LSU, Florida, Georgia and Arkansas might keep the Tigers out of the national championship picture.

7. West Virginia

  • The Mountaineers have dynamic offensive players in quarterback Pat White and tailback Steve Slaton, who led them to a 11-1 season last year as freshmen. Like last season, the Mountaineers will have to outscore their toughest opponents (they gave up 34 or more points to Virginia Tech, Louisville and Georgia).

8. Cal

  • An experienced defense and a potentially explosive offense led by tailback Marshawn Lynch should enable the Golden Bears to challenge USC for the Pac-10 title. But there are holes to fill in the offensive line and a question mark at placekicker, where Tom Schneider was only 9-for-16 on field goals last year.

9. Oklahoma

  • The Sooners were considered a national championship contender until quarterback Rhett Bomar was kicked off the team. Without him, they're a borderline top 10 team.

10. Florida

  • The Gators could have the best defensive front seven in the SEC, but their offensive line isn't nearly as solid. Quarterback Chris Leak is a talented passer, but the Gators need to upgrade their running game against a brutal schedule.

11. Clemson

  • Although the Tigers lost quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, a veteran offensive line and a proven running game should ease senior Will Proctor's transition into a starting role. If they're going to win the ACC's Atlantic Division, they will have to do it on the road, where they will face Boston College, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.

12. Louisville

  • An offense that includes quarterback Brian Brohm and tailback Michael Bush should rank with the nation's best. The Cardinals' toughest games - against Miami and West Virginia - are at home.

13. LSU

  • The Tigers are loaded at wide receiver, but there are still plenty of questions on offense. Can their top two running backs bounce back from injuries? Can strong-armed quarterback JaMarcus Russell improve his decision making? Can a thin offensive line avoid injuries?

14. Georgia

  • Defensive end Quentin Moses' decision to return for his senior season was crucial to the Bulldogs' chances of defending their SEC title. But with little depth at wide receiver and uncertainty at quarterback, the Bulldogs will be hard-pressed to win their division.

15. Florida State

  • The Seminoles return only 10 starters from an 8-5 team that won the ACC championship game, but there's still sufficient talent to contend for a league title. They must improve a running game that managed only 94 yards per game.

16. miami

  • Larry Coker revamped his coaching staff after a 9-3 season, which ended with an embarrassing 40-3 loss to LSU in the Peach Bowl. The Hurricanes should field another imposing defense, but they no longer have as many playmakers on offense, and the offensive line must be rebuilt.

17. Nebraska

  • The Cornhuskers should be good enough to win the Big 12 North as they continue to improve under coach Bill Callahan. Their biggest challenges will come outside the division against Texas and Southern Cal.

18. Tennessee

  • A deep, experienced secondary plus a promising front seven should make for another stout defense. The question is how much will the offense improve under new coordinator David Cutcliffe.

19. Michigan

  • The Wolverines will attempt to bounce back from a 7-5 season with new offensive and defensive coordinators. Quarterback Chad Henne, tailback Mike Hart and wide receiver Steve Breaston give the Wolverines reason for optimism on offense, but the schedule includes road games at Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State.

20. Arkansas

  • Finding a passing game to complement another strong running game is the goal of new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who might end up relying on heralded freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain.

21. Oregon

  • The Ducks can't hope to match last year's 10-2 record against a schedule that includes Oklahoma at home and Arizona State, Cal and Southern Cal on the road.

22. Arizona State

  • Eight starters return from an offense that averaged 36.8 points per game, but the Sun Devils have huge concerns on defense. The first half of their schedule includes Cal, Oregon and Southern Cal.

23. Boise State

  • A change in head coaches shouldn't affect one of the most exciting offenses in college football. Chris Petersen, who replaces Dan Hawkins, has been the Broncos offensive coordinator for the last five years.

24. TCU

  • Six starters return from a defense that led the nation in forced turnovers last season. The offense, which returns only one starting lineman, isn't as seasoned

25. Virginia Tech

  • There are plenty of holes on offense, but a reliable defense and an easy non-conference schedule should help the Hokies extend their bowl streak to 14 games.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.

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