In Phillip Fulmer's first bowl game as a head coach, UT defeated Boston College with relative ease in the Hall of Fame Bowl. In his second bowl game, his team was soundly defeated by Penn State.

In case you missed it, that was the beginning of a trend. And if the trend continues, today's Outback Bowl won't be close.

UT has played in 13 bowl games under Fulmer. Only two of those games were decided by fewer than 10 points.

In fact, bowl games have brought out the best and worst in Fulmer's teams. As good as the Vols looked in a 45-17 rout of Michigan in the 2002 Citrus Bowl, they looked just as bad in a 42-17 loss to Nebraska in the 1998 Orange Bowl.

The Vols were awful in back-to-back Peach Bowl losses after the 2002 and 2003 season. They were dazzling in a 38-7 victory over Texas A&M in the 2005 Cotton Bowl.

The bowl games often contradict the regular season. For example, in 2004, seven of UT's regular-season games were decided by seven points or fewer. The Vols didn't even beat Kentucky and Vanderbilt by more than a touchdown.

But they routed the Aggies in the Cotton Bowl.

Outback Bowl

UT 24, Penn State 13: The Nittany Lions are capable of shutting down UT's pedestrian running game, but they don't have the offense to exploit its vulnerable defense. UT's passing attack should produce enough big plays for a decisive victory.

Cotton Bowl

Nebraska 27, Auburn 24: The Tigers were embarrassed by Wisconsin in their last bowl. This time, they didn't wait for the game to get embarrassed.

Backup running back Brad Lester and linebackers Tray Blackmon and Kevin Sears were suspended for the bowl for violating team rules. The loss in manpower will tip the game Nebraska's way.

Gator Bowl

West Virginia 30, Georgia Tech 20: You wonder whether Georgia Tech sub quarterback Taylor Bennett will be able to get the ball to star wide receiver Calvin Johnson. But even with a big game from Johnson, the Yellow Jackets won't be able to keep up with the Mountaineers' offense.

If Georgia Tech thinks its 21st-ranked defense can slow down Patrick White, it needs to check with arch-rival Georgia. The Bulldogs thought they had a solid defense last season until they spent the Sugar Bowl chasing the Mountaineers. A deep thigh injury to star running back Steve Slaton improves the Yellow Jackets' chances but not enough.

Capital One Bowl

Arkansas 30, Wisconsin 27: You have to wonder how much the Razorbacks have been distracted by a soap-opera December during which the parents of three offensive players conferred with Arkansas athletic director Frank Broyles about how their poor little babies weren't getting to throw and catch enough.

But when you have players like Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, you can run away from your problems.

Rose Bowl

Michigan 31, Southern Cal 24: The teams have something in common besides not being able to tackle Vince Young in the Rose Bowl. They have something to prove after being knocked out of the national championship game with a loss in their last game.

Both teams can pass, but Michigan's superior running game gives it the edge.

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma 34, Boise State 24: The Sooners have won eight consecutive games, including five against bowl teams. Now, they have more than momentum on their side.

Star running back Adrian Peterson returns after missing the second half of the season with a shoulder injury. Memo to Adrian: The end zone isn't a pool. You don't dive into it.

Orange Bowl

Louisville 30, Wake Forest 23: It's a regular homecoming game for Louisville, which recruits heavily in Florida. They just better figure out that Wake Forest isn't your typical homecoming opponent.

The Deacons won the ACC despite losing their starting quarterback and running back to injuries. They're resourceful and resilient, but not quite talented enough to overcome Louisville's high-scoring offense.

Sugar Bowl

LSU 34, Notre Dame 23: The Tigers have the talent to beat the Irish as badly as Michigan and Southern Cal did. They also will be playing before a pro-LSU crowd in the Superdome.

Charlie Weis gives the Irish a coaching advantage, but not enough to overcome personnel deficiencies, particularly in the secondary against LSU's big, fast receivers.

International Bowl

Cincinnati 24, Western Michigan 17: The Bearcats finished the season by winning four of their last five games, including a 30-11 rout of Rutgers. They also finished the season without their head coach.

But that loss won't lead to another one.

GMAC Bowl

Southern Mississippi 24, Ohio 17: If you're wondering whatever happened to former Nebraska coach Frank Solich, this is the bowl for you. Solich has found a home at the University of Ohio, where he didn't have to succeed Tom Osborne and isn't expected to compete for national championships.

BCS Championship

Ohio State 30, Florida 24: You probably think the biggest difference in these teams is Ohio State's superior running game. But the Gators can offset that with a great defensive front, offensive gimmicks and special-teams play.

They can't overcome the difference in quarterbacks.

Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith is at his best in the clutch. Florida quarterback Chris Leak is inconsistent in big games.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.