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Pennington: Road to Final Four bumpier for Lady Vols

For those number-crunching, sports-geek, Lady Vols basketball fans out there, this is the column for you. I've done the research, all you have to do is sit back and study it.

With the loss to LSU two weeks ago, it appears that the Lady Vols will fail to win the SEC regular season championship for a second consecutive year. Coupled with the fact that Pat Summitt hasn't won't a national title since 1998, some have speculated that UT's program might be slipping just a tad (if a three-loss season can be considered "slipping").

But has there really been a drop-off? Or has the rest of the nation simply gotten better?

To find out, I decided to break down women's basketball into two eras: 1982-92 (11 seasons) and f 1993-2005 (13 seasons). My starting point was 1982 because that was the year of the first NCAA women's tournament. You'll learn the rationale behind my using 1993 as the other bookend in a moment.

I then broke down the last era into a smaller time frame, looking only at 1999-2005, or the era after Summitt's last national title. Has Summitt "dropped off?"

Era No. 1: The Age of Dynasties From 1982 through 1992 there were 11 Final Fours, 44 possible slots to fill. And those 44 slots were filled by just 16 teams.

Of those 16 teams that reached the Final Four, only three went to a single Final Four (Northeast Louisiana, Connecticut, and Southwest Missouri State). In other words, women's college basketball was controlled by dynasties, teams that won year after year after year. :During 1982-92, a team was much more likely to go to the Final Four multiple times than just one time.

Here were the schools that made multiple trips to the Final Four from 1982-92: Tennessee (7 trips), Louisiana Tech (7), Southern Cal (3), Western Kentucky (3), Auburn (3), Stanford (3), Virginia (3), Cheyney State (2), Maryland (2), Georgia (2), Old Dominion (2), Texas (2), and Long Beach State (2).

Era No. 2: The Age of Growth; The Summitt/Auriemma Era In 1993, for the first time there were no repeat teams in the Final Four. Same thing in 1994. And 1995. Three years, twelve slots, 12 different teams. This was the beginning of the "modern era" of women's college basketball an era partially brought about by Summitt's successes and her promotion of the women's game.

There were 52 total Final Four slots 1993-05. Twenty-six teams filled those slots. Unlike the previous era, one-time only "hot at the right time" teams were not the exception, they were the rule.

Instead of four one-timers out of 44 slots during 1982-92, there were 17 one-trip-only schools filling out the 52 slots 1993-05. They were: Texas Tech, Ohio State, Iowa, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Alabama, Old Dominion, Arkansas, North Carolina State, Penn State, Rutgers, Southwest Missouri State, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota and last year's finalists Michigan State and Baylor.

Nine teams (a far cry from the previous era) went to multiple Final Fours. And guess who was at the head of the list: Tennessee (nine Final Fours), Geno Auriemma's Connecticut teams arrived on the scene with seven Final Fours, Louisiana Tech (3), Purdue (3), Georgia (3), Stanford (3), Duke (3), Notre Dame (2), and LSU (2).

Inside Era No. 2: The Age of Parity; The Auriemma Era Just as Summitt controlled the national title scene with three consecutive titles 1996-98, Auriemma's UConn teams pulled the Triple Crown during 2002-04. There's no way around it, the past few years have been UConn's time to shine. But for those of you who think Summitt and the Lady Vols have fallen, take a look at the following stats.

From 1999 (after Summitt's last national championship) to 2005, there have been 28 total Final Four slots. Sixteen teams have filled those slots. Of those 16 teams, 11 have been one-trip-only teams (Georgia, Louisiana Tech, Penn State, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Southwest Missouri State, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Baylor).

That means that only five teams have been to multiple Final Fours in the past seven years. And who leads the way again? Tennessee and UConn each has been to five Final Fours, Duke to three, and Purdue and LSU two apiece.

Just looking at the numbers, it's easy to see that the women's game has changed quite a bit in the past 24 years, especially in the most-recent 13 seasons. There was a time when only a handful of schools could win the national championship. Now, instead of eight teams having a shot, 16 to 20 probably have a decent chance to win it all in a given year.

That's made the field tougher. And while the Lady Vols have slipped recently when it comes to national titles, there's been no drop-off at all in terms of Final Four appearances or overall victories.

The evidence is pretty clear: Summitt and the Lady Vols are still Final Four contenders year in and year out, even though the road in front of them has gotten a whole lot tougher.

John Pennington hosts The Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE. He also writes a blog at govolsxtra.com.

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