HOOVER, Ala. -- You shouldn't be surprised that the media picked Auburn to win the SEC championship. You should be surprised if the media is correct.

The Southeast media is as adept at picking the SEC champion as turf writers are at picking the Kentucky Derby winner.

Long shots might not win the SEC. But preseason favorites don't win it, either.

Only twice in the last 14 years has the preseason pick of SEC football media days actually won the championship. Only four times in that period did the preseason pick even make it to the championship game.

So don't count on Auburn winning the SEC. But count on a team like Auburn winning the SEC.

As Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville said, "You can pretty much win games by playing defense and running."

Alabama's Bear Bryant could have said that in 1960. Georgia's Vince Dooley could have said it in 1980.

Don't get me wrong. You can't win the SEC with an early-1960s passing attack. But you can't win it with a 1990s passing attack, either. You need more balance.

Steve Spurrier's Florida teams passed the SEC silly for much of the 1990s. Peyton Manning did the same at Tennessee. Even Kentucky -- with Hal Mumme calling plays and quarterback Tim Couch executing them -- dizzied a few defenses in its glory days.

Now, it's as though the league has come full circle. Call it "old school" or "retro-ball," but the league is returning to its roots.

Florida wasn't picked to win the East just because it has Chris Leak throwing to talented, experienced receivers. It was picked to win the East because of its defense. Six Gators were named to the SEC's first-, second- or third-team defense. And some longtime observers of the Gators believe this could be one of their all-time best defenses.

Georgia wasn't a close second to Florida in the preseason voting because of its passing game. It was a close second despite its passing game.

So what if the Bulldogs have modestly talented Joe Tereshinski or true freshman Matthew Stafford at quarterback. They also have a solid defense and a formidable running game.

If you subscribe to Tuberville's theory, that might be enough.

Here's Tuberville again: "I don't care if we've got Joe Montana at quarterback, you've got to run the ball to win consistently, especially when you play as many good teams as we play and you play them in succession."

And I think he meant a young Joe Montana.

Never mind that Auburn runs the West Coast offense. It's a West Coast offense with a southern accent.

The passing of Jason Campbell helped the Tigers go 13-0 two years ago. But the passing was complementary, set up by the running of Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown.

A year earlier, LSU's national championship team featured a strong running game and a great defense. The coach who built that team probably had a bigger impact on this league than the average fan realizes.

Nick Saban, who now coaches the Miami Dolphins, knew how to pressure a quarterback and disrupt a passing game (See the Oklahoma-LSU national championship game for details).

He wasn't the SEC's only tactician to make pass defense a priority. Statistics reflect the renewed emphasis.

From 1993 through 2001, the SEC's top passing team averaged fewer than 300 yards only once (299 yards in 1999) and averaged as many as 412 yards per game. In the last four years, no team has averaged more than 286 yards per game passing.

This year's conference champion probably won't average nearly that much. But it will pass well enough to take the pressure off its running game.

And it will rely on its defense to do the rest.