DESTIN, Fla. -- You expect to see emerald-green water and white, sandy beaches at the SEC spring meetings. But you don't expect to see the same 12 football coaches you saw last year.

That qualifies as the biggest upset of the SEC school year. Or, as South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier said, "It was a down year for firings."

But it makes you wonder about the attrition to come in a conference as competitive as this one.

Here's my best guess on the order of departures:

Rich Brooks -- At most places, he would have been gone after last year. He probably saved his job by beating Vanderbilt, which speaks volumes about Kentucky football.

He supposedly is coming off his best recruiting year with the Wildcats. He also has one of the easiest schedules in the conference.

But he won't gain ground on the top four teams in the East. And Kentucky will make a change, just to show it cares.

Phillip Fulmer -- He will complete his 15th full season as UT's head coach in 2007. That's about as long-term as you get in this era of SEC coaching.

A couple of scenarios are possible: The Vols might win an SEC title and Fulmer could go out on top; his teams could struggle to reach the heights of the mid-to-late 1990s, and UT could hire someone else to reenergize the program.

Either way, Fulmer will leave a wealthy man with one of the highest winning percentages in college football.

Ed Orgeron -- You're probably thinking, "But Ole Miss just hired Orgeron."

I'm not saying he's leaving in the next few weeks. I'm talking about the next few years.

Memphis sportswriter Ron Higgins called Orgeron a "Cajun Ron Zook" when he was hired. And Zook only lasted three years at Florida.

Orgeron was a questionable hire to begin with. And his supposedly -- how do I put this tactfully? -- "creative recruiting" might draw more attention to Ole Miss than it needs.

Houston Nutt -- He's clearly Arkansas' best coach since Ken Hatfield in the late 1980s. But he's also the coach who said his goal was to compete for a national championship.

In eight years under Nutt, Arkansas has yet to win a conference championship. That probably says more about the Razorbacks than Nutt.

If the Arkansas administration and boosters can accept their status as a second-tier SEC football program, Nutt won't be leaving so soon. But administrators and boosters rarely are that accepting.

With 20 starters returning, the Razorbacks are a cinch to bounce back from consecutive losing seasons. The bigger question: Can they beat out LSU and Auburn for a division championship this year or next?

Les Miles -- His first LSU team finished sixth nationally under adverse circumstances. Unfortunately for him, LSU finished No. 1 two years earlier.

Miles is in the unenviable position of succeeding Nick Saban. Unless he wins a national championship -- don't hold your breath -- he repeatedly will come in second when compared to his predecessor.

He might not win enough to satisfy LSU fans, but he might win enough to get another big-time job at a school that could afford to buy out his contract.

Bobby Johnson -- He distinguished himself from the majority of Vanderbilt coaches by beating UT, but he has won only 10 other games in four years.

After a few more years, when Vanderbilt still hasn't managed a winning season, the Commodores will hire a new coach (like Kentucky, just to show it cares) and create another job for Johnson.

His next title: athletic director.

Mike Shula -- Things are looking up for the former Alabama quarterback, who received a big raise after a 10-2 season.

But there's an orange-and-blue problem on the horizon. The Tide currently has the second-best program in the state, and Shula has yet to beat Auburn.

Steve Spurrier -- He only needed one season at South Carolina to remind Gamecocks fans why he's one of college football's all-time greats. The Gamecocks upset both UT and Florida en route to their first bowl game in four years.

But Spurrier didn't just win games at Florida. He won a national title and dominated the league for most of the 1990s. How long will winning seasons and bowl trips hold his interest if he can't at least win a division title?

Sylvester Croom -- He will make progress at Mississippi State but will grow weary of competing against the stronger programs in the SEC West.

Remember, he played and coached at Alabama under Bear Bryant. He's not used to losing.

Whoever Replaces Brooks -- Again, just to show it cares, Kentucky will make a change.

Tommy Tuberville -- The Auburn coach has as much security as any coach in the SEC. He went 13-0 two years ago, has dominated archrival Alabama, has a long-term contract and is only 51.

He should be around for while.

Whoever Replaces The Coach Who Replaces Brooks -- Just to show it cares.

Urban Meyer -- After job-hopping throughout most of his career, he should be ready to settle down. And there aren't many places better than Florida for a football coach to settle down.

Meyer coach is 41. He should outlast every current coach in the SEC except one.

Mark Richt -- He has won three division titles and two SEC championships in his first five years as head coach. And his coaching role model is Bobby Bowden, whose record for longevity is amazing.