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Why Vols will/won't win in 2006

You don’t have to listen very hard these days to hear the questions circulating around Tennessee’s football program.

In these unstable days, this may be the most anticipated football season in Phillip Fulmer’s tenure at UT for all the wrong reasons.

Is Coach Fulmer going to right the ship? Can we win the East? Will the Vols lose six games like last season? The questions won’t go away.

The bottom line is no one knows just how the Vols will perform this season. Not even Fulmer.

Here are some factors that could bring UT back to national prominence or keep the Vols in the doldrums.

Why they’ll win

Discipline: Coaches simply aren’t going to tolerate poor behavior on the field or off it. Just ask Raymond Henderson, who was dismissed for what may have been deemed a minor incident last year. Or ask UT’s receivers, who got a daily face full of new receivers’ coach Trooper Taylor this spring.

I know there have been two other issues with UT’s players this spring but nothing like the rash of incidents Vol fans endured a year ago.

For the most part, UT’s offense was not a disciplined group on the practice field before offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe arrived, which brings us to ...

Cutcliffe: His return not only brings discipline, it also brings a strong offensive mind and a quarterback guru back on campus.

Cutcliffe’s mind will allow Fulmer to spend less time on the offense. And —no offense to Randy Sanders — but their resumes are not comparable.

Cutcliffe also brings a sense of stability to a program that was in dire need of one. Cutcliffe also has mandated that players, in particular the offensive linemen and wide receivers, will be in better shape than they were a year ago.

John Chavis: I can’t think of another coach in the SEC better suited to replace his entire group of starting linebackers. Chavis has shown the ability to make an average group good and a good group dominant.

UT’s 2005 defense could have been dominant if not for the offense’s struggles, which often hung Chavis’ group out to dry. Chavis is at the top of his game.

Erik Ainge, the freshman: Remember him, the exciting prospect who led UT to road wins against Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina. It’s easy to forget that Ainge’s 1,452 yards in 2004 ranked second on UT’s all-time freshman list or that he threw three touchdowns in three separate games.

If he returns to freshman form, UT surely will benefit.

The Secondary: UT’s defensive backfield could be special this fall. The Vols have plenty of depth and bona fide playmakers in Jonathan Wade and Demetrice Morley, among others.

A lockdown group early in the season would help UT’s defensive front mature.

Big Plays: UT’s receivers should make more big plays this season after a disastrous campaign in 2005. If so, the Vols won’t have to sustain drives as long as last year to score points.

The same thing goes for UT’s tailbacks, especially Arian Foster, who has an innate ability to make defenders miss.

Why they won’t win

The Front Seven: UT lost six of seven starters from last year on its defensive front. Luckily, defensive tackle Justin Harrell decided to return for his senior year and gives the Vols a linchpin up front.

J.T. Mapu, who returns from a two-year mission, Turk McBride, Matt McGlothlin, Vladimir Richard, Dan Williams and Demonte Bolden will compete for the spot next to Harrell as they try to overcome the loss of All-American Jesse Mahelona. Bolden needs to improve now.

UT also must replace speed rusher Parys Haralson and his defensive end mate, Jason Hall, one of the most underrated players on the team. Antonio Reynolds is the only end to garner much praise this spring.

Chavis also has to replace three linebackers.

The Offensive Line: Left tackle Arron Sears is a great player. Center/guard David Ligon is a good player. Can they lead this group to their heights? UT lost three starters from last year’s offensive line.

Ainge, the sophomore: Ainge was a different quarterback in 2005. He didn’t just struggle. He looked lost.

Can Cutcliffe fix the technique problems in just one offseason? Can Ainge forget the embarrassing mistakes he made last year?

If not, redshirt freshman Jonathan Crompton better be ready.

Confidence: This is perhaps the most important, yet elusive, factor on this list. UT’s coaches and players may tell reporters and fans that they have their confidence back, but no one knows until it counts.

No matter how poorly the Vols played before 2005, UT simply found a way to beat schools like Vanderbilt and South Carolina in close games.

A 5-6 record is tough to forget.

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