There are the teams with talent. There are the teams with depth. There are a few with both.

There is a team like Tennessee that's a pain-in-the-butt to play. There is a team like Tennessee whose weakness can be exploited.

There are teams with little to gain. There are teams with nothing to lose.

So, given all the variables, how do you handicap an event like the SEC men's basketball tournament that begins today in Nashville?

Most years, penciling Kentucky in for the trophy presentation on Sunday is as smart a play as any. This isn't most years.

Don't write off the Wildcats, who generally take it to another level in March, but they would have to take it up at least two levels to win this year.

LSU, the regular-season champion, has issues. Tyrus Thomas, the league's freshman of the year, probably won't play because of an ankle injury.

Not that they're looking to tank and go home, but coach John Brady suggests the Tigers are more concerned with the bigger tournament to come next week.

The pool of viable candidates also includes Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Arkansas.

Here's a rough stab at how it will play out:

South Carolina, the league's most-disappointing team, will beat Mississippi State in the opening game to improve to 16-14 and clinch an NIT bid.

Afterward, coach Dave Odom will announce he intends to rest his starters against Tennessee on Friday in order to focus on defense of the Gamecocks' 2005 NIT title.

In a bizarre first-round game, Ole Miss will battle Kentucky to the wire.

Kentucky fans will be conspicuously absent, assuming the Wildcats earned their usual first-round bye.

With the Rebels leading 58-55 with a minute to play, athletic director Pete Boone orders lame-duck coach Rod Barnes to pull his starters and repeatedly send Kentucky to the free-throw stripe. Boone has a plane to catch to interview John Pelphrey and can't afford to hang around Nashville.

Rajon Rondo makes four of 16 free throws and Kentucky survives, 59-58.

Vanderbilt beats Auburn and Arkansas drills Georgia in the evening games. Only a few dozen Hog fans notice.

On Friday, Tennessee beats South Carolina to advance to the semifinals for the first time since 1891, uh, 1991.

In an upset, Kentucky ousts Alabama to the cheers of the late-arriving Big Blue fans who remain oblivious to the previous night's win over Ole Miss.

Arkansas is the "now" team but can't overcome Florida's depth and talent.

Joakim Noah scores 35 points for the Gators before a family gathering that includes his tennis star dad Yannick, his Cameroon soccer-hero grandfather and his Swedish aunt, Inger, a silver-medalist in the giant slalom at the 1964 Olympics.

Tyrus Thomasless-LSU eliminates Vandy. On to Saturday.

Hundreds of UT fans show up in orange blazers in a tribute to Bruce Pearl. The ploy has unexpected results, however, when the brilliant glow reflects crowd heat toward the Tennessee bench. Pearl is drenched in sweat by the first media timeout and needs an IV at halftime.

The Vols are up 16 when Rondo tries to take over the game. However, after his third consecutive layup, Tennessee attempts a new strategy - guarding him.

It works. Vols advance to the finals.

Florida knocks out LSU in the other semifinal. Noah feasts on Thomas' absence by scoring 42 points. Uncle Manolo, a legendary Spanish matador, joins the family in the stands.

It's Championship Sunday. Having already improved their seeding for the NCAA tournament, the Gators and Vols meet for the third time this year.

Burned twice, Florida coach Billy Donovan redesigns his entire game plan to get Dane Bradshaw in foul trouble.

It works. Bradshaw fouls out with 11 seconds to play and the score tied. When the Vols need a clutch, Gator-killer play, he's not there.

Noah scoops up a loose ball and scores at the buzzer.

And then he invites cousin Yuri, the Russian decathlon champion, to help cut down the nets.

A couple of hours later, Tennessee hunkers down to watch the NCAA bracket show. Wisconsin-Milwaukee in Jacksonville.

Mike Strange may be reached at 865-342-6276 or strange2@knews.com.