"Murder by numbers, one, two, three. It's as easy to learn as your a-b-c." -- The Police

So what's the big deal about seeding in the NCAA tournament? There can't be that much of a difference between a two seed and a five seed, can there?

Well, yes, there can be.

If you look at the tournament results for the various seeds (1 through 16) over the course of the last 21 years (since the NCAA tournament went to 64, then 65, teams), it's pretty clear that some seeds do a lot better than others.

According to NCAA records, here are the winning percentages for every seed in first round games:

* A No. 1 seed has NEVER lost to a 16 seed (100 percent winning rate).

* A No. 2 seed has won 95 percent of their games against 15 seeds.

* A No. 3 seed has won 83 percent of their games against 14 seeds.

* A No. 4 seed has won 78 percent of their games against 13 seeds.

* A No. 5 seed has won 71 percent of their games against 12 seeds.

* A No. 6 seed has won 70 percent of their games against 11 seeds.

* A No. 7 seed has won 61 percent of their games against 10 seeds.

* A No. 8 seed has won exactly 50 percent of their games against 9 seeds.

Lessons? Get a No. 1 or 2 seed if you can because those teams almost always make the Sweet Sixteen; No. 5 seeds are usually the first high-seeds to be upset; and No. 8 vs. No. 9 games are toss-ups.

Now, let's take a look at the Sweet Sixteen round. If the higher seeds advance through the first rounds (leaving 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3) how do these games turn out? Just as you'd expect.

No. 1 seeds are 32-16 vs. 4 seeds (66 percent). No. 2 seeds have a slightly tougher time versus No. 3 seeds (28-17 overall, 62 percent).

No question about it, Tennessee would be much better off with a No. 3 seed. Not only would they be more likely to win their first round game, but they would also delay playing a No. 1 seed until, at least, the regional finals.

There's one other Vol-centric factoid that you might be interested in. UT has played seven tournament games as a lower seed. They've won only one of those seven, pulling off just one tournament upset in the last 20 years. Hope for a No. 3 seed Vol fans.

"I don't wanna be a number, just like being a prisoner. I just wanna stay free." -- The Hives

More than likely Tennessee will find itself with a No. 4 seed today when the pairings are announced. There's a chance for a No. 3. And, now, there's also a chance for a drop to No. 5.

The Tournament Selection Committee puts a heavy emphasis on the following:

* RPI and strength of schedule, conference record (though this is changing as conferences expand), quality road wins, and how teams finish in their last 10 games.

UT should benefit greatly from their season-long high RPI ranking. They should also get a lot of credit for winning at Texas, at Kentucky and at Florida ... as well as playing close games at LSU and at Memphis.

There is another factor involved that the committee has long denied. The NCAA folks love a good story. High-profile teams, coaches and players draw good TV ratings. That's why, many times, you'll see a marquee team or coach also draw a higher seed than you might initially expect.

Quite simply, the selection committee wants to see "good story" teams stay alive longer.

I think this will also benefit Tennessee. First-year coach Bruce Pearl has been one of the five biggest stories in college basketball this year. He's been on ESPN, Sports Illustrated and Jim Rome. He's a show. The Vols seeding will probably be helped by the Pearl factor.

"Oh, no, not you again. Please don't tell me you're here to stay." -- Imogen Heap

Speaking of storylines, ever notice how tourney match-ups often carry a lot of head-to-head match-ups that draw on either history or animosity? Take Pearl's run with Wisconsin-Milwaukee last year.

The Panthers just happened to face Pearl's alma mater (Boston College) and the school that hates him most (Illinois) in their first three games. That's not just luck, no matter what the selection committee says.

Here are some teams that might pop up somewhere in the Vols' bracket, starting with the "animosity" match-ups:

* North Carolina (Roy Williams had a lot to say about former UT coach Buzz Peterson's firing last year), Memphis (no love lost between John Calipari and Pearl or their schools), and Illinois.

Then there are the "history" match-ups:

* Wisconsin-Milwaukee (a potential first-round game), Boston College, Iowa (Pearl was a long-time assistant there), and Murray State (UT assistant Scott Edgar took the Racers to two NCAA tournaments as coach in the 1990s).

Other sexy storylines:

* Indiana and Cincinnati were rumored to have been interested in Pearl's services before a new UT contract became imminent. Alabama-Birmingham, Winthrop and Creighton all had coaches on the Vols' semi-short list last year. But how will it play out?

Hope for a No. 3, expect a No. 4, but be prepared for a No. 5. And my guess? UT gets a No. 4 seed and meets No. 13 seed Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Murray State or Winthrop in the opener.