Fifteen weeks from today, we will all know the result of Phillip Fulmer's 15th season opener at Tennessee. Counting his 1992 opener as interim coach, Fulmer will have faced a decade and a half's worth of teams in season openers and not one of them has been as important as the game on Sept. 2 against California.

Like a political race, extremists already have formed battle lines on both sides of Fulmer. Some support the coach no matter what. Thanks to his nearly 80 percent winning record and his 1998 National Championship and undefeated season, Fulmer can't lose this group. To them, he's a Tennessee legend.

On the other end of the spectrum is the "things haven't been right since '98" crowd. Their minds are just as made up as Fulmer's loyalists. A 12-1 season with the only loss coming in the SEC championship game would be met with "Well, we still haven't won a title in eight years." Fulmer can't re-win this group regardless of his success.

But this season, and in particular this season opener, is about the vast majority of UT fans somewhere in the middle. Like an election, coaches have their base supporters and their enemies. So when push comes to shove they have to worry about "the middle."

That's who Fulmer is coaching for in 2006. The undecided Vols fans who simply are leaning one way or the other. And that's what makes the season opener so important.

Fulmer has won 13 of 14 openers. He's never lost one at Neyland Stadium. In fact, in all those games, only four times has the outcome even been closer than 18 points.

In addition, six times teams from the Western United States have traveled to Knoxville for a regular-season game during Fulmer's tenure. Washington State, UNLV (twice), Wyoming, UCLA, and Fresno State have all gone home losers. All but Washington State went home blowout-losers.

California, however, is different. If prognostications are to be believed (and looking at last year's UT record should tell you how much stock to put in those), Cal will rank alongside the '98 Syracuse team as the toughest team the Vols have faced in an opener.

The Golden Bears have become a perennial top-25 team under Jeff Tedford. They churn out pro quarterback prospects with regularity. They might well be the fastest team on the Vols' schedule, which is saying something considering UT plays in the SEC.

Their star running back, Marshawn Lynch, is a Heisman candidate. While Lynch topped 1,000 yards last season, their other tailback, Justin Forsett, ran for an additional 999.

Throw in a new offensive coordinator who orchestrated Northwestern's spread attack last year and this looks to be a tough match-up for a Volunteer team starting six new players in their front seven on defense.

If the Vols win against an explosive Cal team, the Fulmer loyalists will rule the day. Last year's 5-6 nightmare might quickly become a memory with a season-opening win over a top-15 team. "See, told you last year was a fluke." The "Great Turnaround" of 1989 will be mentioned often.

But lose, and the nay-sayers will get mighty loud. Possibly loud enough to start influencing "middle-ground" fans who are looking at this season as a "put-up-or-shut-up" year for the Vols' commander.

Not only could a loss lead the fanbase to mutter, "Here we go again," but what impact might Tennessee's seventh loss in their last 12 games have on the team itself?

That's why this is the most-important opener for Fulmer.

In 1998, the Vols opened the post-Peyton Manning era at Syracuse, battling a good team with Heisman candidate Donovan McNabb at quarterback. In hindsight, the 34-33 victory was a key factor, obviously, in the National Title.

But had Jeff Hall's field goal not gone through the uprights, the Vols still would have won the SEC title and quite possibly still might have found themselves in the BCS title game. (Florida State, Ohio State, Kansas State and UCLA all had one loss as well, but the Vols would have been riding an 11-game win streak.)

In 1994, Jerry Colquitt's injury on the seventh play of the season led to Fulmer's only season-opening loss as coach. UCLA hung on for a 25-23 win in Pasadena as Todd Helton, Branndon Stewart and Manning each took snaps.

The loss of their senior QB sent the Vols into a quarterback shuffle that lasted nearly the entire season. Tennessee recovered to finish 8-4, and, again in hindsight, that season opener eventually brought the curtain up on "The Manning Show" in Knoxville.

So, there's no question that those two games were important openers. But the pressure wasn't on then like it is now.

Even Fulmer's initial season opener as head coach (a 50-0 romp over Louisiana Tech in 1993) wasn't this important. He was still enjoying the new-coach glow, kind of like that new-car smell that everyone loves. And face it, La. Tech couldn't have beaten the Vols on that day even with alumnus Terry Bradshaw as their quarterback.

Nope, the Cal game is bigger than those games. It's bigger than all the previous openers in the Fulmer era. It's a real "where do we stand" moment for the program, the head coach and the fans.

And just 15 weeks from today, the results will be in.