"Who would have thought it'd be this way?"

-- Boyz II Men

Here are a few words that I never thought I'd string together on my laptop: "The Tennessee-Vanderbilt game might be the most important game that Phillip Fulmer ever coaches."

Sound crazy?

Well, three months ago, more than a few of us said that the season opener with California was shaping up as the most important game of the Fulmer Era.

In hindsight, it was every bit as important as we thought. The resounding 35-18 win set the tone for the season. Dark clouds from 2005's 5-6 campaign dissipated. The sunshine of hope returned to good ol' Rocky Top.

Against Cal, quarterback Erik Ainge looked great. The Vols' rushing game accounted for 200 yards. And the Vols' defense stuffed the Golden Bears' Heisman-hyped backfield. That one game got many fans off of Fulmer's back and onto the Big Orange bandwagon.

Now, imagine what the mood of Vol Nation would be had Tennessee lost to Cal. The Vols would already have four losses... to the best four teams on their schedule, it would be pointed out... and three of those losses would have come at home.

Ouch. Don't debate it. That win versus Cal in September has ensured that Tennessee and Fulmer still have a shot at a 10-win season, a decent bowl trip, and at least a three-game improvement over last season's loss column.

And just as UT's win over Cal got the season off on the right foot, the Vandy and Kentucky games are desperately needed to close out the season on a gridiron high.

"I'm gonna let you down and leave you flat, because I told you before, oh, you can't do that." -- The Beatles

Now some of you might think, even if you agree with my feelings about the Cal game, that I'm just being "negative" when it comes to Vanderbilt being of MAJOR importance.

To you, last year's Vandy loss was a one-time fluke. To you, the Vols will simply show up in Nashville today and blow the 'Dores off of the intramural program to the West.

For Fulmer's sake, they'd better. Coaches who lose to Vanderbilt don't have long shelf lives at UT.

Did you know that Tennessee hasn't lost back-to-back games to the Commodores since 1925 and 1926?

Or that no UT coach has dropped two in a row to Vandy since M.B. Banks in 1923 and 1925 (the teams didn't play in '24)?

Know what happened to Banks after that 1925 season? He went from coaching UT to coaching Knoxville's Central High. Really.

If that's too far back for you, then just think back to Bill Battle. He fell victim to the Commodore curse ... and he didn't even have to lose back-to-back games.

At the end of '74, UT and Vandy tied. At the end of '75, UT lost to Vandy. At the end of '76, Battle was gone.

Some things are tolerated and explained away. Not beating Vanderbilt isn't one of them.

"And if you don't underestimate me, I'll tell you one thing, I won't underestimate you." -- Janis Joplin

"But Vanderbilt isn't very good," you say.

And you're correct. Vandy isn't in the upper half of the SEC. But when the SEC is as balanced as it is this year, the standings don't matter. Just ask Georgia fans.

The days of Tennessee just showing up and dusting their late-season competition are over.

The Vols' 69-4 November record from 1985 to 2003 appears to be as much ancient history as the Banks Era. Since 2004, Tennessee is 4-5. in its November contests.

Tennessee has also developed a bad habit of dropping back-to-back games. From 1993 to 1999, the Vols lost consecutive games once (in 1994, while searching for a replacement for quarterback Jerry Colquitt).

Since 2000, the Vols have dropped consecutive games in five of their last seven seasons, including their current two-game losing streak.

Here's another reason to take Vandy seriously: five of UT's last 10 wins over the 'Dores (and nine of their last 18) have come by no more than a touchdown. Half the time, this game is a real fight.

To be certain, Tennessee has the talent to beat Vandy. They also have motivation on their side. For those reasons, they should win in Nashville today.

But odds are the game will be a tough one ... and for Fulmer a very big one.

Wins over Vanderbilt are expected.

Losses to Vanderbilt usually bring about coaching changes.