Is it just me, or is this Tennessee-Florida game tougher to get a handle on than any other over the past 10 years?

It might just be me. After all, the Vols have surprised me the first two weeks in a row, and so have the Gators.

I thought Cal would be too much for Tennessee.

Serves me right for reading the preseason magazines and reading too much into the Vols’ three scrimmages.

Then, I thought UT would wax an overmanned Air Force squad.

Wrong again! The Falcons put on one of the best displays of option football I have ever witnessed. No wonder Nebraska was such a dynasty in the 1990s — they had the same timing, and tons more talent.

Then there’s Florida, which whipped up on a tough Southern Miss squad and dominated what is supposed to be a rising in-state rival in Central Florida.

So where does that leave us?

After the Cal game, I thought home field could tilt the scales in Tennessee’s favor this weekend.

Then, after the Air Force game and the loss of Justin Harrell and Inky Johnson, I thought the Gators would exploit less experienced players.

Now, Harrell is back, and I think ? ahhhh ? what’s the weather supposed to be like?

OK, I’ll admit it, I’m on the fence.

When you write columns and have covered SEC football for 15 years and the Vols for eight of those years, you’re supposed to have a strong opinion.

Well, my strong opinion is this game is a toss up which will be decided by the quarterbacks.

That’s not to say one team can’t win by a two-TD margin, but it could also be a last-second field goal.

So who’s going to make more plays and fewer mistakes under pressure? Chris Leak, or Erik Ainge? Both have looked shaky in the past when the heat is on.

There’s great drama here.

Leak is trying to avenge the failings of big brother C.J. at UT and show the Vols once and for all what they missed out on when he changed colors.

Ainge is trying to vindicate himself with fans and teammates and hold on to the starting job. Jonathan Crompton is waiting in the wings and only getting better.

OK, time for the pick ? reluctantly, I’ll take the Gators on the strength of their experience at quarterback and running back, the drop off the Vols suffer in the secondary when they go to their dime package and the fact that Urban Meyer is in Year Two with his guys while David Cutcliffe is in Year One.

KEY PLAYERS: Ainge, tailback Montario Hardesty and safety Demtrius Morley for the Vols; Leak, tailback DeShawn Wynn and DT Ray McDonald for the Gators.

KEY STAT: Rushing yardage. The team with the most is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings, and a good run game takes pressure off QBs.

OVER/UNDER: Ainge 2 TD passes; UT 3 sacks; Hardesty 80 yards rushing; Wynn 100 yards rushing; Leak one interception; Meachem 75 yards receiving.

KEEP AN EYE ON: The Vols’ offensive line. If they can’t keep the Gators’ four-man rush out of the backfield, it will be a long night for the fans in Neyland Stadium.

GRIFF’s Picks

Georgia (minus-17) over UAB

LSU (plus-3 ½) over Auburn, LSU straight-up

Vandy (plus-5 ½) over Arkansas, Vandy straight-up

Kentucky (minus-3) over Ole Miss, Kentucky straight-up

La.Monroe (plus-24) over Alabama, Alabama straight-up

Miss.St. (minus-11) over Tulane

S. Carolina (no-line) Wofford

Florida (minus-3) over Tennessee

Season record: 9-9 vs. Spread, 16-2 straight-up.

Your questions ...

Q: The rumor up in Johnson City is that Fulmer and the Vols never even practiced defending the type of offense that Air Force used. Can you confirm that? I can understand the difficulty in trying to recreate a similar offense in practice, but was just wondering if you had heard anything.

Cboling@ntelos.net

GRIFF: Yes, and Cal never practiced against the type of offense UT runs. Just kidding. Of course the Vols practiced against the Air Force option?some. That’s not to say there wasn’t a little work for the Gators mixed in, though.

Q: I think (John) Chavis is one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation. But his teams always seem to have problems against option type offenses, i.e. Nebraska in the '97 Orange and '99 Fiesta Bowls and K-State in the '01 Cotton Bowl, as well as last night’s debacle. Is it something in his schemes or philosophy that make us susceptible or is it truly that we just don't see it very often?

eschroeder@midsouth.rr.com

GRIFF: A lot of UT’s problems with the option has to do with Chavis’ style, that is, fast, attacking and swarming. It’s the type of defense it takes to win in the SEC, but that does not bode well against a well-disciplined, well-groomed option attack, where assignment football is key. On top of that, Air Force was virtually flawless, a rarity with a team that runs an offense like that.

Q: Mike, I like your newspaper columns much better than your hosting the Sports Page. By throwing out little barbs at Bob Hodge because he is a hunter you did him and everyone that hunts a disservice. One comment was "he kills things," think how that might have sounded! Can you imagine the mental picture some people might of had? Here's Bob out there with a gun killing dogs, cats, and anything else from the animal world that moves. Then when "Jeff" called with his ridiculous comments wishing that the Vols go winless, you made the comment that to the effect "it wouldn't be good for you and Jeff to hunt together because one of you wouldn't come back." Even though your comments might have been tongue in cheek, shooting things and people is something that should never be made light of, and to kid Bob about being some kind of a madman that kills things was in very poor taste at best. I will continue to read your column, because you are a good writer, but when you are on the radio, I'd rather listen to Basilio. (with that I am punishing myself).

Ken Arnold

arnldKen@aol.com

GRIFF: Well, Bob is a madman who just happens to hunt. Or maybe he’s a hunter who is a madman. Whatever. Hunting is fine for food, but as far as sport goes, I just wish the animal knew he/she was playing.

I grew up in the middle of cornfields with gunshots ringing out all winter ? pheasant, deer, ’coon ? I always rooted for the animals as a kid. That said, I mean no disrespect to the hunters who kill things, so long as they eat their prey. That’s just my opinion, Ken.

Nobody Asked Me, but ?.

Who’s the pick to win the Nextel Cup Championship?

Personally, I like Kevin Harvick. He’s on a roll, he’s a great talent, his car owner, Richard Childress, has led title drives before and Harvick has an exceptional, selfless teammate in Jeff Burton. Don’t be surprised if Kasey Kahne makes a run at it, and I never count out Jeff Gordon.

Here are the odds to win the Nextel Cup title according to a group called PinnacleSports.com:

Matt Kenseth 15/4

Jimmie Johnson 4/1

Kevin Harvick 6/1

Jeff Gordon 6/1

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1

Kyle Busch 9/1

Kasey Kahne 10/1

Jeff Burton 11/1

Denny Hamlin 12/1

Mark Martin 16/1