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Pennington: Inside the numbers reveal Fulmer
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They say that the numbers never lie (though they can certainly be skewed).
And when you’re talking about sports, numbers are the official, accepted language. To come into a sports conversation and not want to talk about numbers is tantamount to moving to a country and not bothering to learn the language.
Numbers are what sports fans speak. Even if numbers can be made to say whatever a speaker or writer wants.
Take this blurb regarding Tennessee football coach Phillip Fulmer, for example: “The dean of Southeastern Conference coaches, Fulmer has claimed a national championship, two conference titles and six divisional crowns while winning better than three-quarters of his games.”
That’s from Tennessee’s 2007 football media guide. So is this: “He also retains his rank atop the winning percentage list for coaches with at least 10 years experience in Division I-A.”
Those numbers are as much about defense as John Chavis’ blitz schemes.
They also happen to be true. They are the numbers that America, and the viewers of ESPN, see. They’re the numbers that cause many, MANY Vol fans to wonder aloud how their coach can get so much grief.
Of course, there are other numbers, too. You’ve heard them. Look at the accompanying table and you’ll see them. They’re the numbers used to attack the man who sits in the captain’s chair.
Look at the numbers from Fulmer’s first seven full seasons as head coach. Spectacular success, dominance, the nation’s best players, and perhaps UT’s best seven-year run in school history. Mount Rushmore numbers.
From 1993 to 1999, Fulmer tallied an astonishing .837 winning percentage, had a 49-9 conference record, went 9-9 versus the top 10, had a winning bowl record, two SEC titles, a national championship and a partridge in a pear tree.
Since then? From 2000 to 2006, Fulmer’s second seven years, he’s had success. Not the “spectacular” success to which fans became accustomed, but just plain ol’ “success.” There is no longer dominance.
The winning percentage has dropped from .837 to .693 over the last seven years. Home losses have jumped from three in the first part of his tenure to 13 in the back half. The SEC record has dropped. The record against the top teams in the SEC East has fallen as Georgia and South Carolina have improved.
In fact, a large reason for the decline in numbers can be traced directly to the fact that the SEC has become more balanced. The top of the SEC is more evenly matched than in Fulmer’s early years.
But still, these are just numbers.
Do numbers really tell the whole story? What about the fact that other coaches have weathered down cycles only to bounce back (Bear Bryant, famously, and Pat Summitt, as Fulmer recently pointed out). Of course, Summitt was still reaching Final Fours during her “down cycle” with the Lady Vols.
What about longevity? Tennessee has had continuity at the top when every other school in the SEC has had turnover. If you want to find coaches that are tenured as long or longer than Fulmer, you have to look to Misters Bowden, Paterno and Beamer.
If you split their numbers in the same fashion as Fulmer’s (1993-’99 compared to 2000-06), Bobby Bowden’s winning percentage has fallen from .901 to .688, Joe Paterno’s has dropped from .813 to .547, and Frank Beamer has managed to keep Virginia Tech right around the same place (.761 to .755).
What about the fact that Tennessee has avoided major NCAA sanctions during Fulmer’s tenure? What about the fact he’s a Tennessee native, a former Vol player? He doesn’t bring personal embarrassment to the university? He rides a motorcycle? He has a nice hair cut?
Isn’t there more to a man, to a coaching career, than numbers?
In Tallahassee and in University Park, there has been. In Knoxville, there has been, too. But we’re talking about sports fans. Their language is numbers.
And eventually, regardless or who you are or where you are, if the numbers don’t start to trend up, all the other stuff goes out the window.
That’s the price of being a high-paid college football coach. And those numbers never lie.
John Pennington hosts The Hall’s Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE.
© 2007, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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