Column topics aren’t always the easiest things to come up with. You’ve probably noticed that I often refer to my columns being based on conversations that I’ve had.

Usually, those conversations are with Tennessee fans. But this week, I was struck by something someone inside the UT athletic department said to me.

“There are only a couple of sure wins on this year’s schedule,” the fella told me. Seems he wasn’t feeling too good about what we might see inside Neyland Stadium this year.

But wait a minute. “There have to be more sure wins than that,” I thought.

In looking at the schedule, I’ve broken UT’s games into three different danger classes: TNT (could inflict serious, deadly damage), Firecracker (could be dangerous if you’re dumb enough not to take it seriously), and World War II Dud (one in a million chance that it somehow goes off on you).

TNT Games

At California: The Vols played their finest game of last season against Cal, exorcising the demons of their 5-6 2005 campaign. This year, Cal is the team that has spent a full year pointing toward their season opener. Last year, Cal had no idea what they were up against in Tennessee and the SEC. Do they know better this year?

Southern Miss: Southern Miss is a solid program with a solid coach. But I rate this as a TNT game because of where they fall on the schedule. Last year, sandwiched between Cal and Florida, Tennessee barely nipped an Air Force team that finished 4-8 (31-30 was the palpitation-inducing score). If the Vols’ minds are on Florida, don’t be surprised if the Golden Eagles don’t give Tennessee another tough game (as they did in 2000, falling 19-16 in Neyland Stadium).

At Florida: That’s three dangerous games in a row at the top of the schedule. Yes, Florida is young and will be untested, but no trip to Gainesville is anything less than a TNT game. The Swamp is the powderkeg of the conference.

Georgia: Another monster game in terms of the SEC East race. After losing three in a row to Mark Richt, Phillip Fulmer has turned the tables and beaten Georgia two of the last three times they’ve played. But everyone at the top of this division can beat one another. That makes this game as dangerous as a TNT-charged arrow fired from the window of the General Lee.

At Alabama: Did I say everyone at the top of the East can beat one another. Try anyone in the top half of the East and West. The Vols pulled out a 16-13 win at home against a 6-6 team last year. That team was coached by Mike Shula. This Alabama team will be coached by Nick Saban. And this game will be at Alabama, not Neyland Stadium.

South Carolina: Face it. If Steve Spurrier coached football at Pellissippi State you’d have concerns about him leading a team against your Vols. Danger, Will Robinson. Danger.

Arkansas: This is the opposite of the Cal game for Tennessee. Last year, they were throttled and thrashed by Arkansas. Now, the Hogs have to come to Knoxville. John Chavis’ staff will be looking to make bacon out of Darren McFadden after last year’s debacle. But will the Vols be better at stopping the run in 2007?

Firecracker Games

At Mississippi State: You may read in a tip sheet somewhere that Tennessee is just 4-4 all-time in Starkville. True, if you count at the days before Harry Truman. The Vols are 3-1 in their last four trips to play the Bulldogs since 1951. This is a danger only if Tennessee doesn’t take State seriously. Thanks to Jackie Sherrill’s reign and the NCAA sanctions that followed, Mississippi State has become what Vanderbilt used to be … the SEC’s doormat.

Vanderbilt: Speaking of the Commodores, Bobby Johnson’s team won’t be winning the East this year and they probably won’t be reaching any bowl games, either (despite some magazine predictions). But they should be good enough to upset one or two conference foes this year. Again, this is a dangerous game only if Tennessee looks down their noses as the Nashville bluebloods.

At Kentucky: Rich Brooks’ team should have a great offense. And the ’Cats have played the Vols closer than a touchdown in two of their last three meetings. Eventually, there will be a year when Kentucky beats UT again (although they couldn’t even do it in 2005 when even Vandy managed to snap their mega losing streak to the Vols). But like a firecracker, I can’t see the Wildcats being a real danger unless the Vols do something really stupid. Take ’em seriously, avoid turnovers, and UT will hang number 24 in a row on the Cats.

World War II Dud Games

Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette: These teams are serious duds, buried deep beneath the heavy dirt of the college football landscape. Only an errant backhoe and some extremely bad luck could uncover one of them, much less set them off.

A loss would be on par with Tennessee’s 1975 loss at home to North Texas State (I still can’t believe that actually happened).

According to one pre-season publication, Arkansas State is ranked number 109 out of 119 Division I football schools heading into the season.

Even Louisiana-Lafayette is better than that. They’re No. 103 with a bullet (that they’re probably forced to keep in their shirt pocket). We’re not even talking, “What’s a Rutgers” here.

After breaking it all down, I guess I have to agree with the worrier I was talking to earlier this week. There really are just two SURE wins on Tennessee’s 2007 schedule. But there are three more that absolutely SHOULD be wins.

That’s five wins. If Tennessee can go 4-3 in their seven TNT games, that’s another 9-3 finish in 2007. And that’s just about what you can expect the Vols’ final record to be.

John Pennington hosts The Hall’s Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE. This week’s show starts at 11:30 a.m.

© 2007, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.