Adams: Ready for departure?

You think Mike Shula did a number on Alabama football? He did a number on me, too.

His number was 7. When I guessed the order of departure for SEC football coaches before the 2006 season, I listed six coaches ahead of Shula.

His teams had improved from 4-9 to 6-6 to 10-2. He had just received a pay raise and a contract extension. And I was beginning to regret referring to him as one of the worst coaching hires in SEC history.

But when his fourth team won only six games and Nick Saban expressed an interest in resuming his college education, Shula was gone and I was wrong. I also was wrong about Kentucky coach Rich Brooks. So was almost everyone else.

Brooks was the overwhelming pick as the SEC coach most likely to lose his job in 2006. Instead, he led his team to an 8-5 record, which included upsets of Georgia and Clemson and a near upset of Tennessee.

Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer was No. 2 on my departure list. He now ranks fifth after improving from 5-6 in 2005 to 9-4 in 2006.

Having thoroughly discredited myself last year, I’m ready to try again. Here’s my revised order of departure:

 Houston Nutt: Fourth on last year’s list, he’s coming off an SEC West championship and an off-season soap opera, which included the transfer of his most heralded recruit — quarterback Mitch Mustain from nearby Springdale — and rumors of marriage infidelity.

My guess is he’s fed up with all the criticism and ready to bolt if he gets the opportunity. It might shock his Arkansas detractors at how much attention he will get on the open market.

- Ed Orgeron: You’re thinking, “He has only been at Ole Miss two years.” Some might say that’s two years too long. Recruiting services would disagree.

His success in recruiting hasn’t shown up on the field. What else you would expect from a coach whom Memphis sportswriter Ron Higgins dubbed, “The Cajun Ron Zook”?

And Zook lasted only three years at Florida.

- Sylvester Croom: Most fans would like to see him succeed and not just because he’s the first black coach in SEC history. He’s a classy guy who enforces old-school discipline.

But he’s not winning enough games, and although his fourth team should be improved, it will be overwhelmed by a schedule that includes a non-conference game against West Virginia and a non-divisional game against UT.

- Rich Brooks: Winning eight games at Kentucky is rare under any circumstances. Brooks managed to rebuild the program despite NCAA-imposed scholarship limitations.

Despite his unexpected success last season, you can’t expect him to stick around much longer. He will be 66 this August.

- Phillip Fulmer: Moving down from second on last year’s list, the dean of SEC coaches just signed one of his best recruiting classes, and his 2007 team is expected to contend for a division championship.

But he might have to win a conference championship in the next few years (the Vols haven’t won one since 1998) to keep his job. If he does win one, he might be tempted to go out on top.

- Bobby Johnson: SEC outsiders might not think much of a coach who has had five consecutive losing seasons. Insiders see the improvement he has made at a school that hasn’t had a winning season since 1982.

Eventually, somebody is going to offer him a better job, and Vanderbilt will lose a good coach.

- Les Miles: LSU fans used to say “He’s no Nick Saban” as a criticism. Now, they mean it as a compliment.

If Miles beats his predecessor, Saban, at Alabama this season, it will do more for his popularity than any of his 22 previous victories in two years at LSU.

- Steve Spurrier: Forget what happened with the Washington Redskins. Spurrier proved he’s still the best coach in the SEC by leading modestly talented South Carolina to back-to-back winning seasons.

Moreover, he just landed one of the most highly touted recruiting classes in school history. That and the incentive to win a division championship at a school that has never won much of anything should keep him around.

- Nick Saban: I know he just got to Alabama. And as Terrell Owens’ former agent might say, “He has four million reasons not to leave.”

But check the track record. He hasn’t stayed anywhere longer than five years.

- Tommy Tuberville: As good as Saban was in his five years at LSU, he didn’t win as many games as Tuberville has in his last five years at Auburn. He also went 2-3 against Auburn, losing once by 24 points and another time by 17.

Tuberville has proved he can beat both Alabama (five consecutive times) and Saban.

- Mark Richt: He’s the anti-Saban. After serving as an assistant coach at Florida State for 11 years, he became Georgia’s head coach in 2000 and seems perfectly content to stay there.

The Bulldogs should be happy to have him. He has won 61 games, three division championships and two conference titles in six years.

- Urban Meyer: He won a national championship in his second season, is making more than $3 million a year and doesn’t seem interested in the pros. What other college job would you rather have?

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.