Prior to the start of SEC play, Tennessee men's basketball coach Bruce Pearl predicted a "Dow Jones'' type of SEC season for the Vols.

UT had its share of ups and downs before a bullish finish saw the Vols win seven of its last nine en route to a 22-10 record and a No. 12 RPI ranking.

The Vols will learn their NCAA tournament fate at 6 tonight while watching the tourney's selection show (WVLT) from Neyland Stadium.

"I think we'll be anywhere between a No. 5 seed and a No. 7 seed,'' Pearl said. "But I don't have as many answers as the bracketologists.''

ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CollegeRPI.com's Jerry Palm, perhaps the two most noted NCAA tournament field experts, project the Vols will fall within Pearl's stated window.

Lunardi has the Vols slated as a No. 6 seed matched with No. 11 seed Old Dominion playing in Columbus, Ohio, in an East Regional game.

Palm has UT picked as a No. 5 seed playing No. 12 seed Davidson in Spokane, Wash., also in the East Regional.

The less-heralded Bracketography.com Web site projects the Vols as a No. 4 seed playing 13th-seeded Rhode Island in Spokane, Wash., in a Midwest Regional game.

Pearl said his team has made a strong case for itself.

"We've won seven of nine,'' Pearl said. "We played our way into the tournament, and that's something we didn't do last year.''

The Vols were a surprise No. 2 seed after winning the SEC Eastern Division last year, but UT was fading as the NCAA tournament approached. The Vols lost four of their final six regula-season games, got knocked out in the first round of the SEC tournament and were eliminated by Wichita State in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

"This year we're fresher and deeper than we were at this stage last year, playing nine guys,'' Pearl said. "Our players have an understanding of how what we do fits and works together.''

But as Pearl noted after the Vols' 76-67 overtime loss to LSU in the first round of the SEC tournament on Thursday at the Georgia Dome, postseason success requires a "special'' level of play.

"We've won games with effort and intensity this season, but that's not going to happen at the end of the year because everyone is playing with effort and intensity,'' Pearl said. "At this time of year, it's about execution, not effort.

"There's a slim margin between winning and losing, and we'll need to be sharp.''

NCAA Numbers: Here are some key numbers the NCAA tournament committee will consider:

• The Vols are 7-3 in their past 10 games and 7-2 since Chris Lofton returned from an ankle injury. The Vols were 1-3 without Lofton.

• UT's strength of schedule ranks No. 5 nationally. The Vols were 3-4 against top-25 RPI-ranked teams, 8-6 vs. top 50 RPI teams and 13-8 against top 100 RPI teams.

• Tennessee is second among SEC teams in the RPI rankings behind No. 8 Florida and ahead of No. 13 Kentucky.

• The SEC was tied with the ACC for the highest conference RPI heading into Saturday's games.