Adams: Defense, playmakers favor Florida

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Tennessee is more than a touchdown underdog against Florida. It’s playing in The Swamp.

So why do I think this might be UT’s best chance to beat the Gators in the next three years?

Answer: Check Florida’s depth chart. It’s loaded with freshmen and sophomores, particularly on defense.

The Gators start only three seniors and one junior on defense. They also will start just two seniors on offense against UT.

Moreover, many of their most dynamic players — like quarterback Tim Tebow and wide receiver Percy Harvin, for example — are sophomores.

Florida’s freshman class, rated as the best in the country by most recruiting services, will become more of a factor as the season goes along. But cornerback Joe Haden and offensive guard Maurkice Pouncey are already starting.

Florida played 14 true freshmen and 24 overall freshmen in its season opener. That was more than any other team in the SEC.

In two games, Florida already has played 17 true freshmen.

Florida 41, Tennessee 38: Since the SEC went to divisional play in 1992, the winner of this game has won the East 10 times. This year should be no exception.

Georgia already has lost to South Carolina. And the Gamecocks have the toughest conference schedule of any team in the division.

Once past Florida, UT will have three of its four toughest remaining conference games — against Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas — at home. The Gators still will have to play at LSU and South Carolina.

So the stakes are familiar for UT-Florida. The defenses aren’t.

UT’s defense looked dreadful in an opening-season loss to Cal. Florida’s looked just as bad in the second half of a one-sided victory against Troy.

The only thing that should slow down either offense is an afternoon thunderstorm, and that’s not out of the question.

UT quarterback Erik Ainge needs to have a career day, and he just might. But the Gators have a few more playmakers and The Swamp in their favor.

Arkansas 27, Sabama 24: Advice to Arkansas coach Houston Nutt: Have someone check the sideline for strangers with video cameras.

There’s no evidence Alabama coach Nick Saban has been stealing opponents’ signals. But his mentor is New England coach Bill Belichick.

Of course, you could argue that there’s no point in stealing Arkansas’ offensive signals. Just check the stats and the injury report.

Star wide receiver Marcus Monk is injured and won’t play. No other wide receiver has more than one pass reception this season.

And even if you know tailback Darren McFadden will get the ball, you still have to tackle him.

Louisville 52, Kentucky 41: The passion once confined to basketball is building for the Kentucky-Louisville football game. But if this really is to become a serious football rivalry, a major change has to take place.

Kentucky has to win a game.

The Wildcats offense is capable. And their defense is capable of making an opposing quarterback look like a Heisman Trophy candidate.

Louisville’s Brian Brohm can do that on his own.

South Carolina 45, South Carolina State 7: The Gamecocks are 2-0 and just managed to upset arch-rival Georgia. But don’t the wrong idea.

This team is anything but set.

Quarterback Blake Mitchell has yet to shed his reputation for inconsistency on and off the field. The offensive line seemingly gets reshuffled on a weekly basis.

And finally, coach Steve Spurrier has become so frustrated with his special teams that he’s assigning some of his best players — running backs Michael Davis and Cory Boyd, and linebackers Jasper and Casper Brinkley – to them.

Vanderbilt 27, Ole Miss 24: If Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron set program goals when he was hired, I doubt one of them was: “Be no more than a single-digit underdog to Vanderbilt by our third year.”

Although you can’t tell it by Vanderbilt’s record, the word is getting around that the Commodores are improved. They were only a 3 ½-point underdog last week against Alabama. Now, they’re a five-point favorite at home against Ole Miss.

This is Vanderbilt’s best chance to win a conference game. And it’s Ole Miss’ best chance to win a conference game until it plays Mississippi State in its last game.

The Rebels’ next six SEC games are against Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU. After that, they might be either too beat up or too beat down to beat Mississippi State.

Georgia 48, Western Carolina 7: A Division I-AA team from the Carolinas playing a prominent Division I-A team on its home field: Remind you of anything?

It shouldn’t. Appalachian State, which upset Michigan in the season opener, has a championship-caliber I-AA program. Western Carolina doesn’t.

In fact, the Catamounts have lost 11 consecutive games, including a 45-21 game to Eastern Kentucky last week. Nonetheless, Western Carolina coach Kent Briggs boldly predicted this week, “The streak is going to end.”

He didn’t say when.

Auburn 27, Mississippi State 10: Bulldogs fans should be absolutely giddy over their team’s 38-point outburst in a victory over Tulane last week. For perspective, the Bulldogs have scored only 41 points in the last five games against Auburn.

And it’s getting worse, not better. Auburn has shut out the Bulldogs each of the last two years, winning 34-0 last season and 28-0 in 2005.

The Tigers’ defense might not be good enough to shut out the Bulldogs this time. But it still should work wonders for Auburn quarterback Brandon Cox, who drew the wrath of Auburn fans after playing poorly in an overtime loss to South Florida.

After watching Mississippi State quarterback Michael Henig against Auburn’s defense, fans will leave Jordan Hare Stadium thinking, “Cox isn’t that bad.”

LSU 45, MTSU 7: The second-ranked Tigers have plenty of reasons to have a letdown against the Blue Raiders.

Everyone is saying how great they are after their 48-7 rout of nationally ranked Virginia Tech. Their coach, Les Miles, is being mentioned as the successor to Michigan’s Lloyd Carr. Their quarterback, Matt Flynn, has a bum ankle.

Also, you couldn’t blame them for looking past 0-2 MTSU to next week’s SEC game against unbeaten South Carolina. So they’ll probably give up a touchdown and score under 50 points.

Top 25: Southern Cal 30, Nebraska 17; Oklahoma 52, Utah State 7; Texas 41, UCF 20; Wisconsin 42, The Citadel 13; Cal 45, Louisiana Tech 17; Washington 27, Ohio State 24; UCLA 30, Utah 14; Penn State 41, Buffalo 10; Rutgers 48, Norfolk State 10; Georgia Tech 27, Boston College 23; Virginia Tech 31, Ohio 13; Oregon 42, Fresno State 23; Clemson 42, Furman 14; Hawaii 45, UNLV 31; Texas A&M 45, Louisiana-Monroe 20.

Record: 40-6 (.869) overall, 19-20 (.497) against the spread.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.