Adams: East a beast to predict

ATHENS, Ga. - Tennessee fans probably had a couple of one-word reactions to Auburn's 20-17 victory over Florida on Saturday night.

One reaction: "Help!"

Another reaction: "Hooray!"

The cry for help stems from what happened to the Vols a few weeks ago in The Swamp. Florida's entire offense looked ready for the hall of fame during a 59-20 victory over the Vols. The induction ceremony has since been postponed.

After a 30-24 victory over Ole Miss and the loss to Auburn, a Florida offense that UT made look spectacular is now regarded as a two-man gang - quarterback Tim Tebow and wide receiver Percy Harvin - with an occasional appearance by tight end Cornelius Ingram.

UT's offense also suffers by comparison.

Ole Miss threw deep successfully against Florida's young secondary. UT didn't.

An Auburn offensive line that included three true freshmen repeatedly got the better of Florida's suspect defensive front when it mattered most. UT made no headway running against the same defense.

That accounts for the "help." But the "hooray" is just as valid.

The stumbling, bumbling bunch of Vols who did almost nothing right against the Gators have newfound hope in the SEC East race. So does everybody else for that matter.

Florida already has one loss and - unless Tebow really is Superman - is headed for another Saturday in Tiger Stadium. And the SEC East is headed for its wildest ride since the conference went to divisional play in 1992.

In a normal season, if the loser of the UT-Georgia game had two losses, it basically would be eliminated from the division race. This is anything but a normal year.

Never mind that the Vols and Bulldogs already have lost games within the division. You don't have to strain your imagination to envision three losses for any team in the East.

Kentucky is the East's only unbeaten team. But if the Wildcats look around the corner, they will see reality coming with a vengeance. After playing South Carolina, they get LSU and Florida back-to-back.

Florida has to play at South Carolina, where coach Steve Spurrier is better than anyone at exploiting an inexperienced secondary. Moreover, the Gamecocks might have enough speed in the secondary to stick with Florida's receivers.

The Gamecocks have their own problems, though. They have lost All-SEC middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley to a season-ending knee injury, and he was sorely missed in the second half when Mississippi State rushed for 95 yards Saturday. If they can't shut down Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre, how will they hold up next month against Arkansas' Darren McFadden and Felix Jones?

The unpredictability of the East is compounded by youth. The top four programs - Florida, UT, Georgia and South Carolina - all rely heavily on younger, inexperienced players. Which team's younger players make greater strides in the last two months of the season could determine the winner of the division.

Georgia's offense against Ole Miss on Saturday featured senior tailback Thomas Brown, who rushed for 180 yards and three touchdowns. But most of his blockers were freshmen.

The Bulldogs, who rushed for 328 yards against Ole Miss, started two true freshmen and one redshirt freshman in the offensive line. Their second offensive line included two redshirt freshmen and another true freshman.

You would think that young line might struggle on the road against UT. You also would have thought Auburn's offensive line would have fared badly in The Swamp.

It's hard enough predicting winners in this division. How can you possibly predict how freshmen will perform from one week to the next?

Get ready for more uncertainty when UT and Georgia square off Saturday afternoon in Neyland Stadium.

You might be watching the SEC East champion. Or you could be watching the second-worst team in the division.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knews.com.

© 2007, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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