Adams: Oklahoma No. 1 ... couldn't win SEC East

The Oklahoma Sooners have lost five of their last nine bowl games. They embarrassed themselves the last time they played for the national title, and they embarrassed themselves again in the last Fiesta Bowl.

So why am I picking them to win the national champio-nship?

Wrong answer: Because they have the best team.

Best team? Why, I wouldn't pick the Sooners higher than third in the SEC East.

My best guess on the best team: It's either Georgia or Florida. But being the best team isn't always synonymous with being No. 1.

In January when the Bulldogs were having their way with Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, they were my pick to win the 2008 national title. Their schedule finally changed my mind. It includes seven teams that have appeared in at least one preseason top 25.

Once I backed off the Bulldogs, Florida was my second No. 1 pick. Never mind the Gators' questions on defense. Their offense looked so potent, I convinced myself they could win their way to the national championship with a series of basketball-like scores if necessary.

But Florida has lost two starters to season-ending injuries, and one of them was preseason All-SEC tight end Cornelius Ingram. That might be just enough attrition to keep the Gators out of the national championship game.

1. Oklahoma - The Sooners return 17 starters from their Big 12 championship team, and their toughest games are at home.

2. Florida - No other team in the country has a better one-two punch than Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow at quarterback and Heisman candidate Percy Harvin at wide receiver/running back.

3. Georgia - The Bulldogs also have a couple of Heisman candidates in running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matthew Stafford.

4. Ohio State - The Buckeyes return 19 of 22 starters from a team that played for a national championship. But after their showings in back-to-back national championship games, how could you pick them No. 1?

5. Missouri - You want a national championship game with a basketball-like score, then pull for Florida vs. Missouri. The Tigers, who scored fewer than 31 points only once last season, have their version of Tebow/Harvin in quarterback Chase Daniel and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin.

6. Southern Cal - Last year's Trojans, who were a consensus pick to win the national title, were overrated. This team might be, too.

7. West Virginia - It only seems like elusive Pat White has been the Mountaineers' quarterback for the last seven years. He's one of nine returning starters on an offense that features a dominant offensive line.

8. Clemson - A top-10 finish would be new ground for a program that has a history of under-achieving. But the Tigers are clearly the class of the ACC.

9. Auburn - A typically fast, aggressive defense will be complemented by new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin's spread offense. The schedule will be challenging with back-to-back games against LSU and Tennessee, and a non-conference Thursday night game at West Virginia.

10. Tennessee - New quarterback Jonathan Crompton will be surrounded by a veteran offensive line, a deep receiving corps and one of the SEC's best running backs in Arian Foster.

11. LSU - Despite losing All-American tackle Glenn Dorsey, the Tigers should field the best defensive front four in the country. And their offensive line is almost as good.

12. Wisconsin - The Badgers will return 19 of 22 starters, but their defense was riddled with injuries in the spring. New quarterback Allan Evridge can rely on All-America tight end Travis Beckum, 1,000-yard rusher P.J. Hill and an outstanding offensive line.

13. Texas - The Longhorns have dropped off since winning the national championship in 2005, but new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp should help revive a defense that faltered last year.

14. Illinois - The Fighting Illini lost star running back Rashard Mendenhall, but quarterback Juice Williams returns to lead the offense.

15. South Florida - The Bulls return 15 starters, including versatile quarterback Matt Grothe, from a 9-4 team.

16. Brigham Young - The Cougars return eight offensive starters from a team that ended the 2007 season on a 10-game winning streak.

17. Virginia Tech -Although the Hokies lost seven defensive starters, they're still the best of a weak ACC Coastal Division.

18. Texas Tech - With Graham Harrell at quarterback and Michael Crabtree at wide receiver, coach Mike Leach's offense should lead the nation in passing for the sixth time in nine years.

19. Florida State - With 15 starters returning, the Seminoles should be improved over their 7-6 season in 2007. Moreover, the five highest-rated teams on their schedule will come to Tallahassee.

20. Kansas - Quarterback Todd Reesing should keep the offense percolating, and the defense returns nine starters from a 12-1 season. The second half of the schedule includes Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas and Missouri.

21. Fresno State - The Bulldogs should dominate the WAC with a balanced offense that returns nine starters. But their defense must improve if they are to handle a non-conference schedule that includes UCLA, Wisconsin and Rutgers.

22. Penn State - Although the Nittany Lions break in a new quarterback, they return 16 starters. October will be difficult with consecutive games against Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State.

23. Arizona State - Coach Dennis Erickson fields a productive offense wherever he goes. He has to be concerned about a defense that gave up 131 points in losses to Texas, Southern Cal and Oregon.

24. South Carolina - The return of injured middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley should help shore up the run defense, but there's work to be done on offense, which has a new quarterback and no proven depth at running back.

25. Connecticut - The Huskies return 16 starters from the team that beat Pittsburgh, Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers in Big East play.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.