Do the math on Tennessee's upcoming women's basketball season and the statistics alone send a winter chill through a late summer day.
Collectively, the Lady Vols are returning just 22.7 points and 11.4 rebounds worth of production from last season's national championship team.
As meager as those totals might be, they aren't the most compelling figures.
Yours truly learned that five years ago when I painted a gloomy preview for the 2003-04 season. The basis was the statistical void left by Kara Lawson and Gwen Jackson graduating.
About a month later, I was visiting with an opposing coach who had read my figuring. She laughed and said, "Maybe they should just cancel the season."
Her point was that UT still had capable players. They just hadn't played lead roles. She was right. The 2003-04 team returned three regular starters. Shyra Ely, who started during the NCAA tournament the previous season, was an All-American in waiting. Tasha Butts and Ashley Robinson were eager to become two of the best leaders in program history.
To heck with stats, that team came within one victory of a national championship.
After that season I've placed a greater value on experience. Which brings us back to this season and a more relevant reason for preseason concern.
Of the six returning players only one - senior Alex Fuller - has more than one season of playing experience. Another, center Kelley Cain, has yet to play a game, missing last season because of knee surgery.
Collectively, this group has 33 starts among them with 30 of them recorded by one player - sophomore guard Angie Bjorklund.
Another of the returnees, sophomore forward Vicki Baugh, is recovering from offseason surgery to repair a torn anterior cruciate knee ligament. While her prognosis for returning this season is very optimistic, she still has thresholds to cross before exiting the trainer's room.
A reflection of Tennessee's relative inexperience is the fact that the 25-player preseason Wade Trophy watch list has no Lady Vols. Not one.
"It is a big difference,'' UT coach Pat Summitt said. "At the same time would I rather have experience or talented players. If experience doesn't match up in terms of talent, I like the talented players."
Her reasoning includes Tennessee's six-player freshman class, which previews as the top rookie class in women's hoops. The group has begun individual workouts with the coaches. At first glance, they will provide a vital infusion of height, skill and athleticism.
Along with learning the basics, the freshmen apparently are developing a shared outlook, too.
"We've all talked about it, all the freshmen,'' said rookie guard Shekinna Stricklen, referring to the present circumstances. "A lot of people are probably doubting us."
There's no doubt that attitude will be as important as ability, this season, if not more so.
"The first thing I think about when I get up (in the morning), is nobody thinks we're going to do anything this year,'' redshirt sophomore guard Cait McMahan said. "I love proving people wrong."
Five years ago, after realizing my miscalculations, I apologized to Butts and Robinson for underestimating them.
It would be in Tennessee's best interests if these Lady Vols compel me to repeat that gesture this season.
Dan Fleser covers Tennessee women's basketball. He may be reached at fleser@knoxnews.com.
Tennessee's signing class for 2012
Tennessee defeats Georgia 3-2 in…
Memorable moments in Pat Summitt's…
Scripps Interactive Newspapers Group
Comments » 14
threehundredbowler writes:
I agree with the writer.As talented as these players are,they still lack an ingredient called experience.By season end they will be competitive,just as all Lady vol teams are.Next year should be the year to start expecting this team to come together.Maybe 20 wins at best.Prove us doubters wrong Ladies.
pammyvol1000 writes:
Basketball is what they have played for years now. It's just a bigger stage. Who wouldn't want to play on the big stage at Summitt. They may be young but I have seen young talent go a long way. Look at Maryland when they won the NC.. Go Lady Vols.. we look forward to seeing you play in the Orange....
Rockytop98 writes:
Can't wait to see the "new look" Lady VOLS!! How sweet would be a repeat!!
NOLAvol writes:
Regardless of which sport, which team, I love these (rare at UT) seasons where expectations are deservedly low. It means we'll actually celebrate each win instead of just saying, "whew" and checking the schedule to see who's next.
This will also be a special opportunity to really appreciate the day-to-day coaching job CPS and her staff do (instead of just their recruiting job) as we watch to see how performances improve with each game. As fans, we'll probably learn more about basketball this season because we'll hear CPS talking about aspects of the game that simply haven't needed to be discussed in previous seasons, with those older, more experienced LV teams.
High expectations for Bruce's boys this season--and with that, lots of potential for disappointment. But LV fans will get to just sit back, relax, and enjoy every improvement, every success, without feeling like every setback has "ruined" the season.
ladivolfan writes:
Well said NOLAvol. I certainly don't expect a national championship this year, but I do expect these girls to go further than they will be given pre-season credit for.
pammyvol1000 writes:
Can't wait to see Cait this year. She is a ball of spitfire..
cobbwebb writes:
c'mon guys its pat summitt were talking about ! this team will be kickin butt and takin names by the time the conference schedule starts. NOLAVOL- i dont think we will be dissappointed in the vols or the lady vols this year! GO BIG ORANGE!!!!!
cobbwebb writes:
PAMMYVOL- agreed , i like mcmahan, i think she will make a nice leader for this young team! she will be the vocal leader , while baugh and bjorklund will lead by example! its time for alex fuller to step it up also! GO BIG ORANGE !!!!!! p.s. dont dicount glory johnson .... the kid is a baller
johnlg00#206211 writes:
If Kelly Cain and Vicky Baugh are completely recovered from their surgeries, the LV's should be pretty tough even with this young team. In any case, anybody who wants to knock them off had better do it this year. By the time our freshmen get a year of experience, the LV's will be right back on top!
98reax writes:
NOLAvol, I agree. Barring more injuries or complications of the rehab process for Cain & Baugh, the outlook seems cheery, IMO. I'll enjoy watching the growth of this group without the expectations of superstars.
Yes Dan, ATTITUDE IS EVERYTHING! I feel like Cait has been chomping at the bit to lead this team. She's been sitting & soaking up the system for many months, but as you saw, she was always first up to offer a slap on the back encouraging her mates at practice and in game situations.
Alex will be Alex with 5 years of The Pat Summitt System under her belt. That speaks volumes for her potential as a player and a leader. If she plays to her potential and takes on her role of Mother Hen for these young guns, that will be all that is expected of her. Fuller is not a superstar, but she is a player who has come up huge for Pat in key roles. There's always something special about a fifth-year athlete in the locker room, on or off the bench in big game situations.
This will be a challenge for Pat and her staff. She relishes these kinds of situations. She will not only be mentoring a bunch of young, inexperienced athletes, there's another superstar assistant coach sitting beside her this season who will also have to measure up. I have no doubts, NOLAvol, we will be celebrating each improvement as well as each win. Toss it up!
adimatteo#261830 writes:
I agree, cant be number one all the time, Ill enjoy the season whether we struggle or do great.
Just knowing we have great kids, great coaches, and we have plenty of great days ahead, and have had more than most will ever get to enjoy
Timed_vol (Inactive) writes:
It is going to be a long, hard year. Can any of the newcomers shoot outside?? Do we have the ncecssary ball skills??
If the past holds true, the lv's will gel by season's end and at least make a fight in the tourney. We'll have to see if a 'goto' girl steps up, and how well the pieces fit.
One thing is for sure:
this is one of the least experienced LV teams I can ever recall. I hope the fans can be real about expectations, and that Pat can get some enjoyment out of working with the kids.
There is one thing that Pat does that I couldn't do well (schoolteachers will know this one): each year she gets a new 'family', and every year she sends 'family' out into the world. To me, that would be heartbreaking, just like sending your own kids out, while 'adopting' new ones. I get the sense that she has a little bit of her heart in these players.
98reax writes:
No doubt, mparker, nice to hear from you.
Pat tells us all the time that's why she keeps doing what she's doing, because she loves it so. When it is no longer fun for her, she will hang 'em up. I feel like this year will be such a challenge for her to get this team to some point of cohesiveness, that she will be in her element more so than in recent years. I bet you she already has someone in mind to build a team around.
I just can't get that scene out of my mind of the championship game when Vickie Baugh went down with injury. I saw some fire in her (Baugh) for the first time that looked as if it could be that of a potential team leader. She was so into that game she gave little thought to her injury and came up screaming to her team to keep fighting. Then when she came back out on the court to watch the victorious endind, no one would have known she was in excruciating pain. She was the biggest cheerleader in the house. That speaks volumes for her desire. We know she has the skills. If she is in playing shape by season opener, she will emerge as the leader of that team and a go-to player. Do you agree?
I never had the chance to see Cain in action. I'm looking forward to seeing what she can do for the team. Her size alone is a factor if she has game to go with that, and I'm sure she does or Pat would not have recruited her. I'm anxious to see if she has some skill to dominate in the paint.
Timed_vol (Inactive) writes:
98, you write like a girl (just teasing).
I think a lot of us long-time fans will be just fine. I'm not so sure about the younger ones. remember before candace came here, quite a few fans where saying 'the game has passed Pat by'???
See, here is my thing. I don't think Pat is a genius coach. I think she is a good coach, in the right program, and a good person. She makes mistakes, can be stubborn, yet at times makes the changes to win. Last NC was perferct: the pressure on Stanford not only threw them off, but it enertized Nicki and took some heat off Candace.
The key for Pat in the furure will be how well she recruits, and can she keep up the pace of the last couple of years. aren't many like candace out there, so have to get hose solid classes.
Share your thoughts
Comments are the sole responsibility of the person posting them. You agree not to post comments that are off topic, defamatory, obscene, abusive, threatening or an invasion of privacy. Violators may be banned. Click here for our full user agreement.