Lane Kiffin doesn't have to look beyond Tennessee's 5-7 record to understand his challenge as its new coach. But to fully appreciate the challenge, you have to consider the competition.
For example, check out the SEC championship game marquee for Saturday: Alabama vs. Florida.
Florida has been the SEC's most successful program for almost two decades. Alabama, which dominated the conference for much of two decades under Bear Bryant, has made a sudden return to prominence under coach Nick Saban.
They aren't just the top two teams in the SEC. They're the top two teams in the country, according to the Associated Press Top 25.
That's whom UT is chasing. And the chase won't get any easier next season.
Alabama, which has outscored UT 70-26 the last two seasons, started four seniors on offense and three on defense against UT. It likely will lose junior offensive tackle Andre Smith to the NFL.
But it will add another highly rated recruiting class. And you know how much Saban has gotten out of the last one.
Quarterback Star Jackson, who hasn't contributed this season, should have an impact next fall as a redshirt freshman. Those who have seen him in practice rave about his talent.
Florida, which has outscored UT 89-26 the last two seasons, again should be loaded with talent. The Gators will return 10 starters - assuming junior linebacker Brandon Spikes turns pro as expected - from one of the nation's best defenses.
The offense likely will lose junior receiver/running back Percy Harvin to the NFL, but there's plenty of firepower returning, especially at running back. Even if quarterback Tim Tebow also goes pro early, Florida has talented passer John Brantley waiting in the wings.
UT will lose more senior starters than either Alabama or Florida. Moreover, it will have to play both the Tide and Gators on the road next season.
Georgia, South Carolina and Auburn - the other three SEC teams which beat UT this season - also started fewer seniors than the Vols. So did Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
Ole Miss, which will replace Mississippi State on the schedule, will be the only new SEC opponent. And playing the Rebels in Oxford will be more difficult than this season's home game against Mississippi State.
The non-conference schedule won't be drastically different. But it should be slightly easier.
This season's four non-conference opponents have a combined record of 17-28. Not one of them has a winning record.
The Vols will open the 2009 season against Western Kentucky, which is 2-9 after seven consecutive losses and has one game remaining. Other non-conference opponents are Ohio University (4-8), Memphis (6-6) and UCLA (4-7 with another loss scheduled for Saturday against Southern Cal).
All four of UT's non-conference games will be at home. You might assume UT would sweep those four non-conference opponents, then beat Kentucky and Vanderbilt to get its required six victories to be bowl eligible.
But the 2008 season taught UT fans not to assume anything.
Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.
© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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