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Adams: Bowl fortunes look mixed for top-heavy SEC

STORY TOOLS

The SEC might want to revise its rallying cry of: "Strongest conference in the country from top to bottom."

Major revisions aren't required. Just delete "the bottom."

There's nothing askew at the top. Florida will play for the national championship, and Alabama would have been playing for the national championship if that little regional skirmish in Atlanta hadn't got in the way.

As strong as the conference is at the top, there's also well documented weakness at the bottom, as evidenced by a few embarrassing non-conference ventures. Tennessee lost to Wyoming and UCLA; Mississippi State lost to Louisiana Tech and was embarrassed by Georgia Tech; Auburn looked as bad against West Virginia as Mississippi State did against Georgia Tech; and Vanderbilt lost to Duke.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky might be going to bowls, but they don't look like bowl teams. Did you ever think an SEC team that was good enough to qualify for a bowl would be bad enough to be an underdog to a Conference USA team? Welcome to Kentucky vs. East Carolina.

LSU 30, Georgia Tech 27: The Yellow Jackets have shredded a couple of SEC defenses (see Mississippi State and Georgia for details) with a rushing attack that ranks third in the country. But as foreign as the triple-option offense seems to most SEC defenses, it should be a welcome sight for LSU. The Tigers have been so inept at pass defense, any run-oriented offense - even if it is on the exotic side - is cause for optimism.

The extra weeks of practice should benefit more than LSU's defense. It also should help freshman quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who already is an upgrade over Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch.

Georgia 37, Michigan State 27: This could be the goodbye game for Bulldogs quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno, both of whom likely will leave early for the NFL.

Goodbye games are nothing new for the Bulldogs this season. It seems as though every Saturday they're saying "goodbye" to some unfortunate starter who has suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Despite all the attrition, which includes five injured linebackers, the Bulldogs still have too much offense for the Spartans, whose pass defense will make Stafford look more NFL-ready than he is.

Iowa 23, South Carolina 20: Just because the Gamecocks rank 12th nationally in total defense, don't assume they will shut down Iowa's ground attack, which features Shonn Greene, the nation's second-leading rusher and also includes three offensive linemen and a tight end who made first- or second-team All-Big Ten.

The Gamecocks will miss hard-hitting student-athlete Emanuel Cook, who was knocked out by the six-hour rule, which requires players to pass at least six hours in the fall semester to be bowl-eligible.

Ole Miss 31, Texas Tech 30: This is as close as you will get to a national championship preview. The Rebels edged Florida during the regular season, and the Red Raiders were routed by Oklahoma.

Texas Tech's offense is one of the best in the country, but Ole Miss' isn't too shabby, either. And the Rebels' defense improved significantly in the second half of the season.

Ole Miss has won five consecutive games, including its last three by 122 points.

Boston College 20, Vanderbilt 13: This would be one of the most entertaining games of the bowl season - if Matt Ryan still played quarterback for Boston College, and Jay Cutler still played quarterback for Vanderbilt.

Boston College ranks 94th nationally in total offense, which qualifies it as the offensive juggernaut of the Music City Bowl. Vanderbilt ranks third from last in total offense.

Enjoy.

East Carolina 24, Kentucky 20: The Wildcats' stretch run has been one stumble after another. After winning their first four games, they lost six of their last eight and three in succession to end the regular season.

Their low lights included a 63-5 loss to Florida during which they were incapable of executing something as basic as a fourth-down punt and a 28-10 loss to UT during which they made Dave Clawson's offense look borderline competent.

Alabama 24, Utah 10: The Sugar Bowl might seem like a comedown for a team that was one victory away from the national championship game. But in this case, it's also a step up for Alabama.

The 1961, 1966 1979 and 1992 Alabama teams capped unbeaten seasons with Sugar Bowl victories. The 1961, 1979 and 1992 teams clinched national championships in the Sugar Bowl.

Alabama hasn't been to the Sugar Bowl in 16 years. As comedowns go, this is as good as it gets.

Top 25: Texas 34, Ohio State 27; Southern California 31, Penn State 10; Cincinnati 24, Virginia Tech 23; Oregon State 27, Pittsburgh 24.

Record: 219-61 (.782) overall, 133-119 (.524) against the spread.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.

© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.

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