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Strange: Number of stars don't matter, it's how they shine

College football recruiting is, in essence, a search for stars. Unfortunately, that search is also quantified by stars.

Tennessee fans aren't excited about the new recruiting class. Not enough stars.

A recruit is known by his numbers. He has a height and weight. He has stats. He has a test score. He has a 40-yard-dash time.

Most of all, he has stars, assigned to him by the recruiting services. Five stars is reserved for the best of the best. Four stars is a can't-miss prospect.

Three stars? Nothing for a UT fan to celebrate, but you need a few - after you've stocked up on fours and fives. Two stars raise a red flag. Why are they gambling on this guy?

To say the star system isn't an exact science is not telling you anything you don't already know. It's a general guideline, nothing more.

The real proof is on the field, on Saturday afternoons in Neyland Stadium, on Saturday nights at Florida Field.

I thought it might be revealing to compare recruiting stars from, say, Rivals.com to, say, All-SEC teams. It was.

In the 2007 season, 34 players received All-SEC first-team notice, either from the SEC coaches or the Associated Press.

The breakdown: five 5-star recruits; 12 4-star recruits; 14 3-star recruits; three 2-star recruits.

And, last but not least, two walk-ons with zero stars.

Bottom line, more 3-star prospects made All-SEC than any other category. Granted, there are more 3-star prospects than there are 4- or 5-star prospects, but you'd think the cream would have risen to the top.

This is not to pick on Rivals.com. They were spot on in many cases. Tim Tebow, the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy, was a 5-star recruit. So was two-time Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden.

On the other hand, Arkansas center Jonathan Luigs was a 2-star prospect. He not only made All-SEC, he won the Rimington Award as the nations' best center.

All three of the All-SEC pass receivers were mere 3-star guys: Earl Bennett of Vanderbilt, Kenny McKinley of South Carolina and Jacob Tamme of Kentucky.

Alabama's Andre Smith was the only 5-star recruit on the All-SEC offensive line. UT's Anthony Parker was a 3-star guy. Luigs wasn't the only 2-star pick. Vanderbilt's Chris Williams was equally underrated.

The All-SEC defense had only one 5-star recruit, Auburn linebacker Brandon Spikes. The unit, however, included six 3-star recruits. Two of them, Ali Highsmith and Chevis Jackson, were stalwarts of LSU's national-championship team.

The biggest recruiting miss was Alabama safety Rashad Johnson. He was a walk-on. Zero stars. (So was LSU kicker Colt David.)

OK, so you don't need a bunch of stars by your name to make the All-SEC team. Surely, All-America will be different. College football's royalty would surely be royally bred.

Wrong. It was even more of a crap shoot.

The Associated Press All-America first team includes more 2-star risks (five) and 3-star commoners (five) than 5-star princes (four).

Your 5-star All-Americans are Tebow, McFadden, Penn State linebacker Dan Connor and Illinois lineman Martin O'Donnell.

In 2004, I doubt Kansas fans were slapping high-fives about 2-star recruits Aqib Talib and Anthony Collins. In 2007 both were All-Americans. High-fives all around.

Kansas State has an even better story. Jordy Nelson was a no-stars walk-on quarterback in 2003. In 2007 he was an All-America receiver.

All-America Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis won the Butkus Award in 2007. He must have been too slow or too short or too something as a 3-star recruit in 2005.

So don't dismiss Tennessee's signing class just yet. The immediate scarcity of stars doesn't necessarily mean there won't be any future stars.

Mike Strange may be reached at 865-342-6276 or strange2@knews.com.

© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.

       48 Comments

Posted by 55Vol on February 8, 2008 at 8:55 p.m. (Suggest removal)

yeah...our 3* and 4* along with our HC are a sinking ship. NOT. Desire, heart, growing up, all of teh intangibles that rivals, scout , etc. cannot measure.

Posted by 55Vol on February 8, 2008 at 8:55 p.m. (Suggest removal)

yeah...our 3* and 4* along with our HC are a sinking ship. NOT. Desire, heart, growing up, all of teh intangibles that rivals, scout , etc. cannot measure.

Posted by gslaton on February 8, 2008 at 8:56 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Finally, an analysis that makes some sense. Congratulations.

Posted by jimr07 on February 8, 2008 at 9:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Mike--good article. i refer you to a website called collegefootballnews.com. they re-ranked the class of 2004 and there are significant differences in signing day and what acutally happened on the field. tennessee came in third and texas, a good example of number one falling drastically in the re-rank. it was an interesting article.

Posted by TurboFan on February 8, 2008 at 10:20 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Thank God Mike didn't mention Jonathon Hefney as an example of a two star that made All-SEC. Would hurt the credibility of the premise.

Posted by Oenoboy on February 8, 2008 at 10:24 p.m. (Suggest removal)

The direct link to that article is http://cfn.scout.com/2/726003.html. It really is telling about the fallacy of putting too much weight on rankings created by people who have never coached a day in their lives. Much like the fallacy of paying attention to the idiotic naysayers on this board who too have never coached beyond the confines of their lazy-boys and stadium seats.

Posted by TommyJack on February 8, 2008 at 10:49 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Oenoboy: Never coached? Is the standard now that in order to have an opinion, you must have been a coach? What about all the faithful on here? They've all coached? You may want to re-think that premise, dude.

Posted by Hunter on February 8, 2008 at 10:53 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Nice article, Mike. Very insightful and a welcome reminder - even for me.

Posted by yeavols on February 8, 2008 at 10:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Stars can shine or be snuffed out- Let this recruiting class know that stars can be born.

Posted by DennisVols on February 8, 2008 at 11:08 p.m. (Suggest removal)

As I have stated before. They do not play football on a piece of paper. It is played on a field that is 100 yards between the goal lines and 50 yards across. Many of the lower ranked players every year simply did not receive the hype others did.
These young men deserve a chance. How many of us would have ever been successful if our first job opportunity had been based on our star rating. We were all walk on's with no job experience and a degree that with a $1 would only get us a cup of coffee.
So before you judge this class put yourself in those shoes and see how you would have wanted to been looked at.
They all had other opportunties and they chose UT. That in its self deserves respect.

Posted by PLEASEGETRIDOFTHENOTSOSLIMONE on February 8, 2008 at 11:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Amazing. Simply amazing. Check the top 10 teams in the country and realize that they are also consistantly having top recruiting classes. I guess we wouldn't know that though because we have had 4 top 10 classes the past 7 years and no top 10 finishes. I wonder what the problem is? Maybe it's the "Hot and Ready" sign at numerous donut shops.

Posted by newtonrail on February 8, 2008 at 11:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)

PLEASE---We all know the recruits do read these sites, and yes all 4's and 5's would be better, but they are turned off by slime ball comments like you make against our staff. Anyone who won't give a half way real ID shouldn't even be on these boards.

Posted by PLEASEGETRIDOFTHENOTSOSLIMONE on February 8, 2008 at 11:39 p.m. (Suggest removal)

It's called a joke newtonrail. Get over it.

Posted by fsslagle on February 9, 2008 at 12:10 a.m. (Suggest removal)

love election years. the world of do good feel good. mr strange do you write your articles or for that matter do you even read them? better stop smokin what your smokin. if you try to count the ****ing stars of the national champ year and before and after-your calculator will break. coach PF wins with those. but lets not confuse ourselves with logic here. forget stars (and strips) with the recruits of this season and last year the vols will fill defensive line with walk-ons and yes sportswriters. please ask mr strange to read his own article.

Posted by mparker on February 9, 2008 at 12:12 a.m. (Suggest removal)

It isn't the stars that concern me....I was just hoping they would load up more on linemen.

My bet is this class will have a chip on their collective shoulders, and face it: if you run 2-deep at every position, that's 44 kids. Maybe 9 from this class (half of 'em) work out to be good enouth to play. That leaves 35 spots for the 'OTHER' classes to fill, or about 12 per class.

Posted by cjraney on February 9, 2008 at 12:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)

fsslagle-
Do you write your posts or for that matter do you even read them?

Snazzle frazzle election year broken calculator time for wapner definitely not my underwear pound the fritter gold stars too much logic on the defensive line sportswriter sinking ship snazzle frazzle....
What the...?

Posted by fsslagle on February 9, 2008 at 1:18 a.m. (Suggest removal)

"cj" the gator or bama godfather. just a bottom dweller all the same. hard to even answer such blind ignorance. adress the issues or go back to your bottle.

Posted by snafu14u on February 9, 2008 at 3 a.m. (Suggest removal)

You can recruit all the stars in the galaxy, but if you can't COACH them, it doesn't matter. Good coaching makes better players/men out of everyone.That my friends is the bottom line.bonzaivol

Posted by volunteer_cowboy on February 9, 2008 at 7:53 a.m. (Suggest removal)

what about the reuben johnson kid out of NJ? scout or rivals hasnt got him or tanyi the DE signing LOI with anybody. does anybody know anything about these two kids?

Posted by AllVol on February 9, 2008 at 8:25 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Those doughnut jokes are real "stale," PLEASEGETRIDOFTHEFATJOKES. cjraney, there are some real wackos out there.

Posted by redstickvol on February 9, 2008 at 8:47 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Volunteer_cowboy. You are right about johnson, but IMO we don't need a 5'9" safety as much as we need OL and DL. Also, Lanston Tanyi signed a LOI with Appy State according to rivals.com

Posted by arkyvol on February 9, 2008 at 8:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)

yeah, stars don't count. yada, yada, yada. that's what the vandy and kentucky folks have been saying for years. hey! maybe we're on to something here. don't let it get out to so. cal., notre dame, bama, and the others.

Posted by grvol on February 9, 2008 at 9:01 a.m. (Suggest removal)

BUT...you gotta coach em up. Fulmer has proven he can't do that.

Posted by redstickvol on February 9, 2008 at 9:04 a.m. (Suggest removal)

cowboy, you bring up an interesting point though.

Does anybody know if we have any scholarships left? Or did we use them all. The reason I ask is that in checking with rivals.com, there are several, OL and DL kids who are at least 2* who haven't signed with anybody and have UT on their list.

Kyle Thomas, Malcolm Jefferies, Chris Enos, Demerius Dareus, Hermann Marshall, Arterio Arnold, Bobby Massie 4*, Joe Semple. And the list goes on and on.

Admittedly, most of these kids are 2 stars, but there are a few 3 stars and even the one 4 star. Also, all of these kids had UT at at least medium on their list. Most of them, had us at high. What do you guys think, and more importantly, can we get any of these kids scholarships?

Posted by rkastens on February 9, 2008 at 9:09 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Excellent column. In three or four years you really know what you have with ANY recruit. That doesn't mean the a program shouldn't evaluate talent and go for 4 and 5 stars, but it does mean there are no guarantees - with 5 stars or with walk-ons.

Most freshman do not do much anyway. Our success next year will not be determined by this class. In two and three years, yes this class and its development will be integral to our success. Let's make our judgements then.

Posted by pdhuff on February 9, 2008 at 9:19 a.m. (Suggest removal)

grvol -9:01 a.m.- Took the words out of my mouth. This talent has to be COACHED. Exception - B Ball, Mears once said ,"Benard King doen't need a whole lot of direction on the floor".

Somebody has to direct any star kid.

Posted by volunteer_cowboy on February 9, 2008 at 9:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)

what about deon foster

Posted by oldorange on February 9, 2008 at 10:04 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Outstanding article.

Posted by AlpharettaVol on February 9, 2008 at 10:08 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Look at Notre Dame's record this year. It sure does deflate the idea that the highest ranked recruiting class has the most success. Maybe the coach is the problem there. Lots of ND alums are unhappy about their coach's success rate as well as his attitude toward the alums. Charlie might want to place a call to his old buddy Belichek.

Posted by cjraney on February 9, 2008 at 10:29 a.m. (Suggest removal)

fsslagle-
The point is your post was unintelligible. The article shows some interesting facts about the recruiting ranking system. Your post was about election years, smokin somethin, broken calculators, and that dang confusing logic.

Here's the simple version: I was poking fun at you. Understand?

Posted by TommyJack on February 9, 2008 at 10:51 a.m. (Suggest removal)

AlphVol: With his contract, Charlie Weis should pray that he gets fired.

Posted by cjraney on February 9, 2008 at 10:57 a.m. (Suggest removal)

AllVol-apparently so.

fsslagle-
If you question my team loyalty just check out some of my previous posts. It is very clear that I am all Vol--excuse me, clear to those who can compose a complete sentence.

Posted by cjraney on February 9, 2008 at 11 a.m. (Suggest removal)

redstick-
Fulmer said at the Memphis tour stop that we had 15 scholarships to give and he held one for Brandon Warren. He obviously knows a couple guys will have to go fix their academic issues.

Posted by givehim6 on February 9, 2008 at 11:35 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Hopefully with the new coachs a new spark will be light. I think a lot of teams knew how TN would play, but with a new system in place we will not play so predictable. And 3*& 4* will play like 5*.

Posted by ronbliss on February 9, 2008 at 11:46 a.m. (Suggest removal)

With the departure of Trooper Taylor, David Cutlcliffe, and Mr. Roper from 'Three's a Company' many recruits have chosen to park their RV's in a different location. Fear and the uknown has plagued many a men in the prestige of time. These young men were scared of what was not at UT, instead of what was at UT. I have spent decades upon decades amongst the players and I know that the willingness or unwillingness to committ to the past, present, or future of the college can always lead to unblissfullness.
Bliss, bliss, kitty kat, whoow.

Posted by redstickvol on February 9, 2008 at 11:51 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Thanks cjraney, I still don't understand why we didn't go after Bobby Massie though.

Posted by newtonrail on February 9, 2008 at 12:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)

PLEASE-- If I want comedy, I'll go somewhere else. Again, you and those of your ilk who turn away potential recruits are NOT Tn Fans. Nothing about Tenn sports is a joke to most of us.

Posted by nastyman on February 9, 2008 at 12:21 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Very good article. We need more research and statistical background to the articles. I enjoy Strange's style more than anyone else's. Adams needs to work a little harder on his articles.

Posted by PLEASEGETRIDOFTHENOTSOSLIMONE on February 9, 2008 at 12:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Wow newtonrail! You are a TRUE TN Fan. You know that there is a lot more to life than TENN sports don't you? Tennessee football is going to soon be two words that bring laughter to those who are not TRUE TN fans like yourself.

Posted by TommyJack on February 9, 2008 at 12:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)

newton: All do not have to be of your "ilk" to be true fans. One need not kneel at the alter of the Large One to be a fan.

Posted by GerryOP on February 9, 2008 at 2:11 p.m. (Suggest removal)

I guess ya'all saw the blurb in The Sporting News - 4 of the top 6 2003 recruiting classes played in BCS bowls this past January? Also, the #1 in 2003 recruiting? LSU! Stars do not mean everything, but they do mean something.

Posted by volunteer_cowboy on February 9, 2008 at 2:53 p.m. (Suggest removal)

OL still unsigned: bobby massie, scott mcnichols, teavis durgin, james francis, ryan benzik and joe semple and on the DL: teddy dargin, dion foster, john michael bryant, kyle thomas, malcom jefferies, chris enos, herman marshall, aterio arnold, jonathon browning(lb) so could we not sign none of these kids?

Posted by jimr07 on February 9, 2008 at 4:20 p.m. (Suggest removal)

volunteer_cowboy--maybe these players had no interest in tennessee. what do you do, put a gun to their head and say, here sign this letter or intent. were they good students? could they get in school? just saying why didn't we sign so-and-so does not mean we did not go after them.

Posted by volunteer_cowboy on February 9, 2008 at 4:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)

they did have intrest in UT look at scout and rival and they havent signed with anybody, and we lost JT floyd to michagan so why not reuben johnson to replace he is rated the same or higher and he is faster

Posted by jimr07 on February 9, 2008 at 4:32 p.m. (Suggest removal)

volunteer_cowboy--i am not in the know like a lot of people on this board. i am in texas and do not have the opportunity for call-shows etc. I am relying, as bad as the KNS is, on this site to try and keep up. it is just possible that because of the coaching changes, they did not feel comfortable signing with tennessee. did we have the space to offer them? my point is it is easy to say go sign them and not know all there is to know about it.

Posted by VolFan4Life on February 9, 2008 at 6:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)

I've been seeing posts from PLEASEGETRIDOFTHENOTSOSLIMONE (PGROTNSSO) for quite some time. The theme is always the same -- get rid of Fulmer because he's a fat loser. According to PGROTNSSO, Fulmer can't coach, he can't recruit, in fact, he's nothing more than mental midget in a world of coaching geniuses. About the only thing PGROTNSSO thinks Fulmer can do well is eat, and he apparently thinks Fulmer does that all the time.

The other thing I've noticed is that PGROTNSSO's posts often have inaccuracies in them that go unchallenged. For example, in this thread, he stated that UT has "had 4 top 10 classes the past 7 years and no top 10 finishes."

In the past 7 ranked recruiting classes, Tennessee has actually had three top ten classes, not four. In the past 7 top ten football rankings, Tennessee has managed one top ten finish, not zero.

While these are not huge mistakes, they are the kind of careless errors that, if made on the coaching level, would make the difference between a 10 win season and a 11 win season, or a number 12 final ranking versus a number 5.

Perhaps given PGROTNSSO's abysmal performance, he should look into resigning from these boards to save himself and from future embarrassments and save others from having to put up with his inaccuracies. I know I wouldn't miss him, and I'm willing to bet his approval rating among those on this board would be well below that of Coach Fulmer's.

Posted by PLEASEGETRIDOFTHENOTSOSLIMONE on February 9, 2008 at 8:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)

VolFan4Life-

I admit it. I was wrong. They had 3 top top classes and were #11 in another. Forgive me please. As for finishing in the top 10, the Vols did finish there 7 years ago so forgive me for this also. Still not a trend that should make those in Knoxville happy. And if they are, that is sad.

Posted by UTByrd on February 9, 2008 at 10:21 p.m. (Suggest removal)

My criteria for a 5 star is that they should have athletic ability, their academics in order, a great work ethic, and a team first attitude. Give me a 3 that has all four over a 5 that is missing a couple of them. Nuff said.

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