Strange: Potholes litter path to Final Four

Hey, forget the seed snub. It's all about the match-ups and Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl likes his.

"We like our match-ups,'' Pearl enthusiastically told a crowd that gathered Sunday to watch the unveiling of the NCAA tournament bracket.

Pearl was quick to put a positive spin on the disappointing revelation that the Vols were awarded a No. 2 seed instead of the historic No. 1 seed the program felt it deserved. He sensed the collected fans and family needed a pick-me-up.

After opening-round foe American University, Tennessee's road to the Final Four could (and should) go through Butler, Louisville and - gulp! - North Carolina in Charlotte.

That's not North Carolina-Charlotte, the team that dumped the Vols in the opening round back in 2001 in Dayton.

That's North Carolina-Chapel Hill (North Carolina-Michael Jordan), playing for a Final Four berth in the friendly environs of Charlotte Bobcats Arena.

You play 'em one round at a time, but for the purposes of this space, we're assuming the higher seeds survive and advance.

"We've got good match-ups,'' assistant coach Steve Forbes confirmed Pearl's early diagnosis. "It's all about size and how we match-up speed-wise.''

But a little later, after the fans were gone, Pearl, speaking to the media only, wasn't so sure he really, really liked his match-ups.

"I don't know enough about the teams yet to know how much I like my match-ups,'' he confessed.

"But this is the hand we're dealt, so I'm going to like it. These are the cards we've got. I'm going to make this hand win, so I better start liking it right from the first interview to the last interview.''

Let's take it round by round.

American University, the Patriot League champion. First trip to the tourney. Big win at Maryland this year.

As a No. 2 seed two years ago, Tennessee needed an acrobatic last-second basket from Chris Lofton to outlast 15-seed Winthrop. American is no Winthrop.

Next round, Butler or South Alabama.

South Alabama of the Sun Belt beat Mississippi State, beat Western Kentucky twice and lost 91-88 at Vanderbilt. The Jaguars are athletic and will play up-tempo.

But in all likelihood, they won't beat Butler.

Butler, the Vols know.

"They embarrassed us in Madison Square Garden,'' said Chris Lofton.

Butler handled UT 56-44 last year in the Preseason NIT. That 40 minutes in the Garden was some of UT's worst basketball of the season.

The Bulldogs drain the shot clock, shoot the 3-ball and are very good at the free-throw line.

This year Butler is 29-3 with wins over Michigan, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State and Florida State.

"They're better now than they were (last year),'' Pearl said. "Fortunately, so are we.''

I don't like this as a second-round match-up. Butler isn't big, which is in UT's favor, but the Bulldogs are deliberate and savvy.

But there is this: Pearl is a master motivator and last year's NIT loss gives him great material.

"We played terrible and they out-willed us,'' said senior Jordan Howell. "I hope we play them.''

Waiting in Charlotte should be Louisville, a No. 3 seed that was, up until recently, contending for a No. 1 seed.

"I find it hard to believe there's going to be a better three seed in this tournament than Louisville,'' ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said Sunday night.

The Cardinals have improved considerably as the season played out and 6-foot-11 David Padgett could be a problem for UT's suspect post defense.

Another problem: Louisville defends the 3-ball very well.

On the other hand, Lofton would certainly get cranked up for his first shot at the home-state school.

So Lofton goes wild. Let's project Tennessee notching its first Sweet 16 victory. What next?

By the Elite Eight, you're going to be playing a very good team, no matter the year or the region.

But North Carolina in Charlotte is not a good match-up in anybody's book.

But didn't we say the same thing about Memphis at Memphis?

Mike Strange may be reached at 865-342-6276 or strange2@knews.com.

© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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