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Pennington: Planting seed to get a No. 1
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Here are some facts, figures, notions and guesses to get you ready for Selection Sunday.
One Seed vs. Two Seed
There have been 29 NCAA tournaments since the selection committee decided to start seeding the field. In that time, the eventual tournament champion has been a No. 1 seed on 15 occasions (more than half the time). A No. 2 seed has won just six tournaments.
There have been 116 Final Four teams since the tournament began seeding and 40.5 percent of the teams filling those slots were No. 1 seeds (47 of 116). No. 2 seeds have filled just 22.4 percent of those slots (26 of 116).
All-time in the tournament, No. 1 seeds are 357-101 (77.9 percent). No. 2 seeds are 260-110 (70.3 percent). A No. 1 has never lost a first-round game, while four No. 2 seeds have gone down in their first game (Tennessee needed a buzzer beater two years ago to avoid becoming the fifth).
In other words, a two seed has to win six games to win the title, whereas one seeds get the equivalent of a bye in their opener and need to win just five 'real' games.
Should UT Get A No. 1 Seed?
With the nation's top RPI and strength of schedule rankings, my answer is 'yes.' But other teams also have legitimate resumes, as well.
North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA all have better winning percentages versus top 50 opponents. Those teams also combined for just one road loss all year. And their overall records are all equal to or better than the Vols.
Kansas might inch past the Vols on conference strength. The Big 12 is No. 2 in RPI, while the SEC featured just two ranked teams going into the weekend.
And lastly, competing with the Final Four pedigrees of UCLA (17 Final Fours), North Carolina (16) and Kansas (12) also raises concerns.
Whichever teams slip to the No. 2 seeds will have legitimate gripes. But there are only four slots open and there are more quality teams at the top of the board than ever before … which might just be rotten luck for the Vols.
Where might UT go to play?
The easiest drive for Vol fans would clearly be Birmingham. And regardless of the seed Tennessee receives, I think that's exactly where they'll start out.
After that, the options are Phoenix (West), Detroit (Midwest), Houston (South) and Charlotte (East) for the regionals. If Tennessee gets a No. 1 seed, expect it to come in the Midwest. UCLA will definitely get the West, Memphis should land the South, and the ACC champion should grab the East.
The downside to Detroit? The games will be played not in an arena, but in a dome. Every year, sharp-shooting teams talk about having to 'learn to shoot' against the odd, deep backdrops that domes provide. In case you haven't noticed, the Vols rely pretty heavily on outside shooting. If I'm Bruce Pearl, I'd prefer an arena venue (Phoenix, Charlotte) over Ford Field or Reliant Stadium.
If Tennessee becomes a two seed, don't be surprised to see them land in the East, ticketed to Charlotte with North Carolina as the one seed. Playing Carolina in Charlotte would be akin to playing Notre Dame at The Vatican, but it would still give UT fans an easier drive than Detroit. Getting tickets away from Tar Heel fans would be another matter altogether.
Getting To Final Four
Tyler Smith taking over a game late. The Vols are built on lay-ups and 3-point shots. They're the ultimate highlight reel team. But to reach San Antonio, they'll need their threes to fall for four consecutive games. That'll be tough in tournament play. If Tennessee is going to survive, I believe they'll need Smith to take over in the paint at least once during this run. Smith has the talent to carry a team by himself, but he'll need to be more selfish when he gets the ball inside.
No Getting To Final Four
The lack of a two-point offense to go along with the Vols' 3-point attack. As I said earlier, the odds are that UT will go cold at some point. If another team takes the Kentucky approach and refuses to run with them (thus limiting turnovers and cheap buckets), the Vols will absolutely have to get points in their halfcourt offense.
That means Ramar Smith and Jordan Howell will have to run the offense, find short jumpers for the guards, and find easy baskets for the inside men. And that kind of point guard play hasn't been a strength for Tennessee this year.
Predictions
Tennessee lands the No. 1 seed in the Midwest (rewarded for their non-conference road schedule). Knowing the selection committee's love of 'story lines,' I wouldn't be surprised to see Belmont (in-state), Winthrop (almost got the Vols in 2006) or American (slow tempo) in the first round.
In later rounds, the following teams could land in UT's path: Kansas State (smokin' offense, first team to 100 wins), Arizona (slow tempo, Kevin O'Neill now the coach), and Michigan State (a slow-down offense, but so-so guard play).
Drake (coached by Keno Davis, a former Pearl assistant and the son of Pearl's mentor, Dr. Tom Davis) is another intriguing possibility.
Two years ago, my predictions were solid in terms of who the Vols would play. Last year, cold as ice. Here's my run at 2008:
Vols get the No. 1 seed in the Midwest (No. 2 will go to Duke or Kansas). They'll open in Birmingham against American or a conference tournament winner. Then they'll move to Detroit where Arizona or Michigan State (with a loud crowd behind them) will be waiting in the round of 16.
John Pennington hosts The Hall's Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE.
© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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Posted by calivol on March 16, 2008 at 1:53 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I hate to break it to you John, but Winthrop will not be a 16-seed.
Posted by bshone on March 16, 2008 at 2:34 a.m. (Suggest removal)
To be fair we do not deserve a #1 seed with Kansas and Texas playing in their championship tourny game on Sunday - the winner if that game deserves a #1 seed, along with probable winners UNC & UCLA (and already winner Memphis).
We deserve a #2 seed. To be a sure #1 seed the Vols needed to at least make it to the championship game on Sunday.
Posted by 02champs on March 16, 2008 at 3:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Pennington's an idiot...
Posted by 02champs on March 16, 2008 at 3:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Hey..we have a NO.1 seed...and Pennington's still an idiot..
Posted by oldorange on March 16, 2008 at 6:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Your guesses are as good as anyone elses. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out this evening...........GO VOLS
Posted by knoxsingle on March 16, 2008 at 7:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Thank you for not being John Adams.
Posted by softball on March 16, 2008 at 8:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)
1 or 2 The Vols have there best chance ever to make it to the final four! GO VOLS
Posted by Volfan1 on March 16, 2008 at 8:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Good one, knoxsingle.
Posted by utfpmd on March 16, 2008 at 9:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Teams with poor point guard play rarely make it to the Final Four. I think we are in trouble.
Posted by General_Watermelon on March 16, 2008 at 9:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
If UNC wins their conference tourney, Memphis wins, UCLA, and Kansas/Texas, why wouldn't these be the teams to get a #1 seed? We lost to an unranked team and gave up over 90 points. We nearly lost to lowly South Carolina too in our first game and that was even more embarrassing. Taking off my orange sunglasses for just a second, I can see why we should be a #2 seed. We just couldn't take care of business and thus do not deserve to be a top 4 team or to get a #1 seed.
Posted by Plasticman on March 16, 2008 at 9:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Based on our resume (TOp RPI and #1 SOS) we deserve a #1 seed. UNC and UCLA have both squeaked out numerous wins the past couple of weeks and UCLA was fortunate that the refs made poor calls to allow them to defeat Stanford as well as California. National talk shows act like UNC and UCLA are the best teams by far. I think there are about 8 teams with a realistic chance of winning it all and despite our poor point guard play, we are one of those 8 teams. Here's hoping that Ramar gets back to last years playing level and that Howell finds his shooting touch. If that happens, I expect us to get to the elite 8 or final 4. But yes, we STILL deserve a #1 seed based on our resume.
Posted by General_Watermelon on March 16, 2008 at 10:17 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Plasticman - I respecfully disagree. We should have walked away with this tourney. We got breaks by KY, Vandy, and Miss State getting beaten and had an easy shot at the title. We couldn't get it done. Kansas and Texas are at a huge disadvantage given they have to play each other and no one in the SEC stacks up against either. Ditto UNC with the tougher ACC. UCLA's close games don't mean anything as long as they win their tourney - something we couldn't do. Memphis doesn't play anyone, but they have only lost one close game so they will certainly be a #1 seed. Bottom Line - Are we a legit top 4 team or not? I don't think so given the egg we laid in the SEC Tourney. Arkansas was not even ranked! South Carolina is terrible. We nearly lost to SC and did lose to Arkansas. #2 seed is where I'd place us because we couldn't get it done on the court despite having the easiest tourney in the country (save Memphis).
Posted by General_Watermelon on March 16, 2008 at 10:18 a.m. (Suggest removal)
should have read "respectfully."
Posted by Plasticman on March 16, 2008 at 10:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)
GF, It all depends how much stock the comittee is going to place on the league tourneys. I still think we get a #1 based on what we accomplished during the season. Even though UNC will get a #1 seed, the ACC is down this year, I don't think they are any tougher than the SEC. We still won the SEC outright, have the #1 RPI and #1 SOS. WOuld be hard to deny us a 1 seed based on this, unless they place emphasis on the league tourney's which is not always the case. Should be exciting at 6:00 PM tonight....
Posted by General_Watermelon on March 16, 2008 at 10:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I of course hope you are right Plastic.
Posted by rockyknox on March 16, 2008 at 10:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Good analysis. I don't always agree with your comments, but I don't always disagree with them like I do with little Johnny Adams. It is time for your promotion. New Sports Editor - John Pennington.
Posted by General_Watermelon on March 16, 2008 at 10:47 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Pennington over Adams any day of the week.
Posted by invisiblekid on March 16, 2008 at 10:50 a.m. (Suggest removal)
It'd be hard to argue against the Vols getting a #1 seed but my bet is Kansas gets rewarded if they win against Texas today.
Not much difference between being a #1 and # 2 seed IMO. Sure, the #2 seed has lost 4 times but there have been several close calls with the #1's as well, the most memorable being ETSU losing to OK in either '89 or '90. I think the stats Pennington provided would be more relevant if they were narrowed down to 1985-present, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams. #2 seeds still win at a 96 percent rate since 1985.
Posted by bowerst on March 16, 2008 at 10:54 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Tennessee can win it all, regardless of being a #1 or #2 seed, IF the refs let the players play. If they call it close, the way the SEC refs did, the Vols may not make the Sweet Sixteen. Pearl told everyone that come tournament time, the refs let 'em play. Maybe that was wishful thinking or a message to the idiots who pass themselves as officials in the SEC, but if he is right about the NCAA, we have as good a shot as anyone.
Ramar Smith and Jordan Howell do need to step it up, but we overcame their inconsistent play to win lots of ball games this season, all we need are six more.
Posted by ggriggs939 on March 16, 2008 at 11:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)
What happened to the aborted foul shot which the hog blocked before it reached the rim?? By the way, did he get credit for a blocked shot???
When the hog jumped into the lane, a lane violation occurred and should have resulted in another try before the technical shots were tried.
Was this just another part of the setup to get another sec team into the big dance???
It is always difficult to win a game when you face eight participants and you are not allowed to influence the actions of the three with the whistles.
Posted by maples on March 16, 2008 at 12:29 p.m. (Suggest removal)
all of a sudden we can't play defense. give up 90 & 87 to inferior teams. never thought I would see the Vols get out-hustled and out-hearted but both Arkansas and South Carolina did that to us. guess we thought all we had to do was show up. will cost us a #1 seed but #2 ain't too shabby. if we don't start playing better defense and hitting free throws, it ain't gonna matter anyway. need better PG play for sure.
Posted by bshone on March 16, 2008 at 12:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)
ggriggs, do you mean wildcats? i don't think that was Stevenson for KU who swatted the free throw away after he knew he had committed a lane violation.
Posted by VolCane7979 on March 16, 2008 at 12:55 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Tenn should still land a #1 as long as Texas doesn't win today. If they do, they'll take it away from Tenn based on their victory earlier this season.
Posted by DenmarkVol_aka_Mbumburu on March 16, 2008 at 1 p.m. (Suggest removal)
One way or another, these boys will have to play ferocious, smothering defense to win, especially inside. And they will have to win each rebounding battle. To me, these are musts.
Arkansas played "our game" last night and beat us. Run n' gun will get you beat if you can't get back on defense.
Duke, we can see it on your face. You're frustrated. You now have a chance to be a man inside. This could be your coming out party, YOUR show. We really need you inside, especially on defense. BOX OUT.
JP, make stuff happen. You can be the sparkplug to carry us a long way.
Ramar, love the way you attack the basket. You're a special athlete. But when you're playing the 1 spot, we need a different type game from you.
Jordan, keep launching those threes. Have no fear.
Brian Williams, BOX OUT.
Josh Tabb, are you ready to play point guard?
Posted by pearlific on March 16, 2008 at 1:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
BSHONE...stevenson was told by Gillespie to goaltend the shot to make sure there wouldn't be a miss where the clock would start. However the brilliant Gillespie didn't know a technical would be called. (this was supposedly the co-coach of the year making that call!)
Posted by chipper10 on March 16, 2008 at 1:06 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I don't see UT getting a #1 seed. Conventional wisdom has been saying they were the last #1 seed, and losing in the semi's in a weak SEC will not help their cause.
I don't think it is going to matter much. I think they will be in the region opposite of the Kansas/Texas winner either as a #1 or #2 seed. Once you get to this point, you have to beat good teams to go to the Final Four. Seeding will get you one or two "easier" games, but that's it.
Posted by pearlific on March 16, 2008 at 1:06 p.m. (Suggest removal)
the best BOXOUT all night at the sec tourney was the cop cutting off Gillespie when he chased down the refs after the game!
Posted by bowerst on March 16, 2008 at 1:10 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Maybe they shoulda let Billy get the refs. The SEC zebras are the worst in major college basketball.
Posted by DenmarkVol_aka_Mbumburu on March 16, 2008 at 1:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Ramar just needs to put more arc on his free throws. He's throwing ropes and needs to be putting up rainbows, a la Chris.
Posted by pearlific on March 16, 2008 at 1:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
actually they are second behind the PAC-10 refs
Posted by bowerst on March 16, 2008 at 1:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Yeah, but the PAC-10 guys can blame it on second-hand pot smoke.
Posted by bowerst on March 16, 2008 at 2:08 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Here's an observation: Supposedly superior North Carolina is trailing Clemson at the half, barely won their previous ACC Tourney games, but no one questions their #1 seed pedigree.
I understand they have a ton of history and we have never got past the 16, but I know we can play with them or with anyone else out there. There is no dominant team this year, regardless of who ESPN decides to anoint or deride.
Posted by volssam on March 16, 2008 at 2:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I can kinda see it both ways -- 1 or 2 seed....But like Plasticman said earlier, based on the ENTIRE season, we SHOULD be a #1 seed, easily...the #1 RPI (for 2 months straight) and #1 non-conference strength of schedule and 4 of our wins on the road vs Memphis, Xavier, Gonzaga, and MS State....does anyone even come close to that?...the answer is NO...the only ones that might even have a sniff of a chance would be UNC's win @ Duke and Duke @ UNC.... but anyways, did you all see Pearl's face after the game was over yesterday? He was intensely upset...So hopefully, he will light a fire under our guys to actually play some D and for Ramar to start playing more like he did last year (b/c then maybe Pearl would leave Ramar in a lot more than Howell--if we're lucky)...GO VOLS!!!
Posted by bowerst on March 16, 2008 at 2:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Isn't it great to be sweating a 1 or 2 seed? If we still had Buzz (bless his heart) and with the same players, we would be talking about finally making the Dance this year, and maybe a 7 seed if we are lucky. It's great to be a Tennessee Vol.
Posted by volssam on March 16, 2008 at 2:18 p.m. (Suggest removal)
AMEN BOWERSTATE.....I am so glad that Bilas and Vitale have no say in the comittee...They don't question at all UNC or UCLA's #1 seed (even yesterday when they were down against VT and thinking of poss losing, Vitale thought they had #1 seed sewn up) and even Bobby Knight thought G'Town had a shot at a #1 seed (granted -- it was before their loss last night) but who's seed do you think they'd have taken? Not UNC's or UCLA's or Memphis's....we were the only ones seen as vulnerable, even though we'd weathered the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation and are still one of the best 4 or 5 teams in the nation...and teams like Memphis play absolutely ZERO tough games on the road....it's pitiful....I am so proud of and happy that Pearl goes out and schedules tough games, b/c I think it helps us in the RPI and w/ NCAA seeding (see 2 yrs ago when we got a 2 seed) but what's the purpose if we don't get rewarded for it by the comittee....I think they should send a message and give us a 1 seed, but I'm biased; actually we deserve it more than Memphis (given our schedule vs theirs and our beating them on THEIR court), but I know that's not gonna happen.....GO VOLS!!!
Posted by FatherVol on March 16, 2008 at 3:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I'm expecting a #3 (NOT saying we deserve it) so whatever we get above that will make me happy.
Posted by murrayvol on March 16, 2008 at 3:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Excellent article John. Always enjoy a look inside the #s. Wish you had gone one more step & named the top ten teams in Final Four trips.
The 78% wins @ #1 doesn't surprise me. If you're good enough to get a 1 seed, you're good enough to win a bunch of games beyond the vs 16 gimmee. And you can usually throw a blanket over the next 6-8 teams.
Posted by rabidvol1998 on March 16, 2008 at 3:18 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Let's take the 2 and go to Charlotte. We still have to win 3 games against similar competetion to get to the Elite 8 for the first time.
As for the statistics on 1 versus 2 seeds. it's hard to interpret since by definition, 1's are better teams than 2's. If the top 8 teams were assigned randomly to the top 8 seeds, then the stats would mean something.
Posted by yabadabadoo1026 on March 16, 2008 at 3:20 p.m. (Suggest removal)
ggriggs939, take your constant conspiracy theory and shove it
Posted by bowerst on March 16, 2008 at 4:03 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Re: the comments that Pennington should be the sports editor, you first need to be a sports writer. Just being a New England Patriots fan, having an affinity for researching stats and no ability to handle the slightest criticism won't take you very far.
Posted by alfrizzle097 on March 16, 2008 at 4:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Everyone seems to be in agreement on the point guard thing. What I find baffling is that Ramar was so good last year and Jordan was good up until the midpoint this year. Hope springs eternal, but the defense has to become a strength again.
Posted by yabadabadoo1026 on March 16, 2008 at 4:18 p.m. (Suggest removal)
bowerst, you can not be serious accusing HIM of being oversensative to criticism, thats the very trademark of posters on this board----thats the most insane comment I've read here lately
Posted by VolCane7979 on March 16, 2008 at 4:47 p.m. (Suggest removal)
We are now #2 in the rpi by .002 after UNC's win today. Might give the committee reason to drop us. Our #1 SOS and RPI had been our saving grace.
Posted by VolCane7979 on March 16, 2008 at 4:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
C'mon yaba, lighten up man. You're gonna blow a blood vessel if you don't (yes, I agree with you that the conspiracy theory is ridiculous).
We all want Tennessee to get a 1 seed. In reality, Tennessee will probably end up a 2 either in Kansas/Texas' Detroit region or in UNC's Charlotte. Really, we should worry about making it to the elite 8 first. That will be an accomplishment in and of itself based upon our declining half-court defense as of late. Let's get it done, boys.
Posted by 55Vol on March 16, 2008 at 10:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Pennington for fritter lover of the month....
Posted by bowerst on March 17, 2008 at 2:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Hey, yabadabawhatever, Insanity is my middle name. I remember when Mr. Pennington was a full-time contributor to this site and that he walked away after several critical remarks about columns. I like John's columns just fine, and he sure hit the nail on the head in this one. But I think he would tell you he is not the creative writer that Adams is.
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