Pennington: No. 2 will have to try harder

No. 2? How did Tennessee wind up with a No. 2 seed?

I predicted in my Sunday column that Tennessee would get a number one seed in the Midwest … or, if they fell to a number two, a slot in the East opposite North Carolina. One of the panelists on my Sunday television show also picked the Vols into Charlotte, N.C. This shouldn’t have come as a complete shock, in other words.

If I can see it as a logical possibility, anybody can see it as possibility.

And, if you take a look at the overall numbers, it’s not completely surprising that the Vols fell to a No. 2. So let’s look at those numbers and rankings objectively. And we’ll compare the numbers for the eight teams receiving one or two seeds. Let’s start with:

Overall Record: Memphis (33-1), North Carolina (32-2), UCLA (30-3) and Kansas (30-3) all had three losses or less. Tennessee (28-4), Texas (27-6), Duke (27-5) and Georgetown (27-5) all had four losses or more. The first four teams got one seeds, the second four got two seeds. No big shock there.

RPI Rank: North Carolina finished number one, followed by Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas, Texas, Duke and Georgetown. So the top eight seeds in the tourney went to the top eight RPI-rated teams. Tennessee, at number two, was the odd team out when the number one seeds were handed out. (Chalk one up to the conspiracy theorists.)

Strength of Schedule Rank: Tennessee was number one, followed by North Carolina (3), Texas (4), Duke (8), UCLA (14), Memphis (27), Georgetown (32), and Kansas (50). Clearly, strength of schedule didn’t count for as much as the overall wins and losses. UT, Texas and Duke played three of the eight toughest schedules in the country, but they all got number two seeds. (Strength of schedule, is why I would have put Tennessee ahead of Kansas, but this isn’t as big a deal as it’s being made out to be … mainly because of the next stat.)

Conference Tournament Finish: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA and Kansas all won their conference tournaments. Tennessee (semifinals), Duke (semifinals), Texas (finals) and Georgetown (finals) all lost in their conference tournaments. The committee chair can say that tourneys had no impact on seeds, but that would be a switch from every previous year on record … and from the obvious ties shown this year. Again, the hot teams got the top seeds, the losers did not. When it comes to this area, the Vols (and the others) could have taken care of their own business, but they did not.

Regular Season Conference Finish: North Carolina, Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA, and Georgetown all won their conferences and Texas and Kansas tied as champions of the Big 12. Among the two seeds, only Duke finished second in their league.

Wins vs. RPI Top 50 Teams: North Carolina (9-1, 90.0 percent), Memphis (6-1, 85.7), UCLA (11-2, 84.6) and Kansas (8-2, 80.0) all won at least 80 percent of their games against top 50 opponents. Tennessee (11-3, 78.5), Texas (11-4, 73.3), Duke (7-4, 63.6) and Georgetown (6-4, 60.0) all won less than 80 percent of their games against top 50 opponents. Again, the seeding fell exactly along these lines.

When you look at the numbers, the number one seeds were not as random as thought … and Tennessee wasn’t as jobbed as some would say.

To me, the RPIs of all these teams are extremely close, so that’s not a big factor. The strength of schedule, in my book, would have earned UT a number one over Kansas.

At the same time, the tournament finish (one team beat a top 10 opponent and won their championship, the other team lost in their semi-finals while playing zero defense), is at least a legitimate argument for Kansas getting the one-seed (even though I don’t agree with it).

One other thing that probably worked against Tennessee was how they finished the season. The Vols lead the SEC this year in terms of margin of victory, but six of UT’s final seven games were decided by four points or less. And the Vols also gave up 86 of more points in three of their last four.

When the committee is looking for ways to separate teams, hot finishes usually count for something. And UT, it could be argued, has cooled a bit at the end … especially on defense.

Now, there’s also been a lot of talk about the “s-curve.” Supposedly, the best team in the tournament will face the worst of the No. 2s, and the best of the number twos will face the worst of the number ones. I think that IS how the committee initially lays things out, but anyone who studies the brackets year-in and year-out knows that geography and “rewards” still play into this.

Take Tennessee and Texas, for example. Some are saying that the Vols were the eighth overall seed because they’re in the same region with North Carolina, the tournament’s overall No 1. But I don’t buy it.

The same goes for Texas supposedly being the seventh seed going against Memphis (two seed overall in the tournament). Looking at all the numbers above, and taking into account that both UTs were still in the running for one seeds on Sunday, I think that they were actually REWARDED by the committee.

Of course, only the NCAA could reward someone with a rough road.

Tennessee, while they didn’t get a one seed, is still getting games close to home … Birmingham and then Charlotte. Playing North Carolina in Charlotte isn’t fun, but it’s certainly a better opportunity for Vol fans to attend and make noise than Phoenix, Detroit or Houston would have been.

Texas was also in the running for a number one seed until their title game … and they wound up with games in Little Rock and Houston. Again, it’s as though the committee said, “you didn’t get one seeds, but we’ll keep you as close to home as possible.”

If you don’t buy this and still think UT was just getting hosed, look at it from the top two seeds’ perspectives. North Carolina, you’re number one and you’re supposed to get the easiest region. However, you get the number two RPI team in the country (Tennessee) in an arena located between their campus and yours. You also get Louisville (vying for a one seed just three weeks ago) as the three seed. Think Carolina fans are happy?

As for Memphis, the second No. 1 seed overall, the Tigers will have to prove their Conference USA schedule didn’t pad their resume. They’ll have to get through Pittsburgh (Big East tournament champions), Stanford, and Texas (IN HOUSTON!) to reach the Final Four.

Slights are in the eyes of the beholders.

Again, I’d have put Tennessee No. 1 in the Midwest. But many of the numbers used by the selection committee allow you to certainly make a legitimate case for Kansas. And while Bruce Pearl will (and should) use the “eighth seed” talk as motivation for his team, I don’t buy it for a second. The tournament’s top two seeds will have to play the two best number two seeds. Tennessee and Texas may have been number twos, but they’ll be playing pretty close to home in the weeks to come.

© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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