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Pennington: Turnovers led to Vols' demise
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There are two questions that I’ve heard again and again since Tennessee’s Sweet 16 loss to Louisville on Thursday night:
“How can a team without a pure point guard win 31 games,” and “What happened to this team after the Memphis game?”
Scouring the boxscores and stat sheets from a season’s worth of basketball, I’ve found that both questions can be answered in a single word: turnovers.
Let’s start with the basics. There are flaws to be found with every team in America. Each system, each style of play has strengths and weaknesses. UT coach Bruce Pearl’s system is designed to mask many possible flaws. And at Tennessee, the Pearl style has turned basketball from an also-ran to an SEC champion in just three short years.
But this year, there were several issues that the system had to try to cover up. First, the Vols lacked consistent point guard play all season. The situation seemed to get worse late, forcing Pearl to tinker with small forward J.P. Prince at point guard on four occasions in the last eight games.
Second, Tennessee lacked dominating big men inside. Wayne Chism can play at a very high level for stretches, but he is not a shot-blocking, rebounding tower of power in the old school mold. That’s simply not his game. He’s just as happy to pop a three from outside as he is to bang for a lay-up inside.
Tyler Smith, the Vols’ most-talented player, proved his unselfishness on numerous occasions, passing up shots in the paint to get the ball to teammates on the perimeter. That’s a great attitude, but there were times that the Vols sure could have used a go-to guy from twelve feet and in.
So with no real distributor and with no dominant giants inside, it’s no secret that Tennessee’s half-court offense was a problem on many occasions (last year’s team, with better guard play, didn’t suffer that woe).
In 2007-08, the Vols had the ultimate “SportsCenter” offense. Lots of highlight threes and dunks, but very few “run of the mill” plays that bring consistent two-point scoring.
So how did Tennessee reach the heights they reached with an inconsistent half-court offense? Turnovers.
When the Vols were forcing turnovers, swiping possessions and creating easy buckets, the alley-oops, no-look passes and pull-up 3-pointers were Globetrotter-esque. But when turnovers didn’t come, the Vols often looked out of control and lost.
Turnovers masked UT’s weaknesses in the half-court game. Because of that, the Vols couldn’t afford to waste their own possessions, and it was imperative that they create “extra” possessions with their defense.
Here’s an oversimplification of the value of turnovers. With the clock rolling, there are only so many possessions in a game. If a Vol opponent has the ball, they can, at best, knock down a three-pointer. But if UT forces a turnover, brings the ball down and hits a three of their own, that’s a six-point possible swing off of one turnover.
Now, let’s look at UT’s turnover margin up to and through the Memphis game. In those first 27 games, UT devastated their opponents by forcing 525 turnovers. That’s a whopping 19.4 turnovers per game average.
Over that same 27-game span, UT also took care of the ball, turning it over on the offensive end just 355 times (13.1 turnovers per game). That’s a plus-6 turnover margin per game. That’s a possible 36-point swing in every game in favor of the Vols. That’s taking it to the extreme, but you get the point.
Even if UT made just two lay-ups, hit two 3-pointers and missed two shots off of those six “stolen” possessions, they were still tallying an extra 10 offensive points per game off of turnovers.
With the advantage created by that kind of effort, it’s no wonder that the Vols ascended to number one in the nation. UT was the best in the business at creating possessions for themselves and taking them away from their opponents.
But then … things changed. In the Vols’ nine games after Memphis, Tennessee forced just 132 turnovers. That was a huge drop, down from 19.4 to 14.6 per game.
On offense, the Vols’ own number of hiccups climbed by a hair to 119 (13.2 per game). In other words, Tennessee went from plus-6 in turnover margin to plus-1. That’s a lot fewer easy baskets. And more pressure on a limited half-court offense.
Not surprisingly, the average score in UT’s games went from about 83-69 through Memphis to 77-73 after Memphis. Fewer swiped possessions equaled much tighter games.
Things only got worse when tournament play began. The Vol defense forced just 77 turnovers (down to 15.4 per game) in their five SEC and NCAA tournament games.
To make matters worse, the Vols turned the ball over 79 times (15.8 per game) in that stretch. You read that right. A team that was plus-6 in turnover margin for 27 games had a MINUS turnover margin during tourney play.
For those wondering what caused the Vols to become more careless on the offensive end and less tenacious on the defensive end post-Memphis, well, that’s anybody’s guess. With no major injuries to speak of and a schedule that was murder from start to finish, it would appear that the problem could have been mental.
Perhaps UT reached too many goals too soon. Perhaps, like so many teams before them, they celebrated their achievements a bit too much. It’s hard to maintain your drive when nets are being cut down and everyone’s telling you you’re the greatest.
Whatever the cause, turnovers are the fuel that make Tennessee go. And the Vols’ big turnover advantage disappeared as the regular season wound down and the post-season cranked up.
For those still asking the question, “What happened to the Vols after Memphis,” there’s your answer.
John Pennington hosts the Hall’s Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE.
© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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Posted by teedub on March 29, 2008 at 5:42 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Jordan's slump really hurt us. I'm sure it hurt no one worse than Jordan, but not having him in the lineup speaks to John's point. He was pretty solid handling the ball, but just missed too many easy shots down the stretch. Only Bradshaw was good enough to be on the floor without actually scoring.
Posted by DenmarkVol_aka_Mbumburu on March 29, 2008 at 7:18 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Interesting insight, John, and you've presented a compelling case. Would love to hear BP's thoughts on the turnover ratio...and what happened after Memphis.
Posted by maples on March 29, 2008 at 7:20 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Hope we can recruit a fundementally sound point guard for next year. One that can hit free throws would be a big plus. Great season, but a disappointing run to close it.
Posted by 02champs on March 29, 2008 at 7:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Pennington's an idiot.
Posted by a92vol on March 29, 2008 at 7:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The real issue hasn't been turnovers, although that has been a side affect. The underlying issue has been poor shot selection - jacking up outside shots that we aren't in position to take, especially when no one is in position to rebound. That leads to too many one shot possessions followed by a frantic race to catch up later in games. That was the script we saw play out again and again following th e Memphis game. If we want to get past the round of 16, we're going to have to get more patient and disciplined on the offensive end of the floor. (And a real point guard sure wouldn't hurt)
Posted by creepykev on March 29, 2008 at 8:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I like Pennington and catch his show on occasion. It would have been nice to see this team advance, but man, they sure were entertaining all season long and I refuse to get down on them.
Posted by bmaples on March 29, 2008 at 8:43 p.m. (Suggest removal)
As a Vol fan who lives in Louisville (and who also cheers for the Cards, at least when they're not playing UT), I can pass on an interesting take on this story from this end:
One of the stats Pitino keeps is deflections. His goal for his teams is 35 deflections per game. That had dropped before the tourney, so he challenged them to get it back up.
Against Tennessee, the Cards had 38 deflections.
I think this article is dead on, and the stats back it up. I also think the team got tired mentally and emotionally.
Most of all, though, I think it was still a great year, and I'm already looking forward to next year.
(Written while waiting to watch the Cards take down the 'Heels. <g>)
Posted by richvol on March 29, 2008 at 9:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Pennington is exactly right. I also agree with a92vol that shot selection ( with no rebounders in place ) is a part of it. I've been saying for weeks we have got to value each possession. We got used to it not being important since we got so many more opportunities than the teams we played due to the turnovers.
As a season runs it's course other teams got better at protecting the ball and the competition got tougher in tournaments. At tourney time basketball IQ is so important and you can't play out of control like Tennessee has become accustomed to. This became so obvious that we looked,and played sloppy. When you play conference champions in the NCAA tourney they expose you.
When Coach Pearl gets enough higher quality players with better smarts this system will still work and should still drive opponents crazy.
However,these young men achieved a tremendous amount this year and we should all be grateful to them for their efforts.
Posted by johnlg00 on March 30, 2008 at 10:05 a.m. (Suggest removal)
richvol, you are exactly right. You said, in way fewer words(;-P), what I have been saying all season. 02champs notwithstanding, I found Pennington's analysis compelling. The numbers he cited matched my subjective perception. a92vol was also correct when he cited quick, careless shots, and richvol correctly pointed out why this was so much more important later in the season. The simple fact was that, without the extra possessions generated by forced turnovers, this year's team didn't have enough weapons to score consistently, especially with Chris and Jordan off their games. I think CBP did an outstanding job with what he had to work with. I hope Daniel West, incoming freshman point guard, is at least part of the answer, but JP, Ramar, Brian, and Duke MUST make themselves more of an offensive threat in the off-season if next year's team is to match this year's accomplishments. I hope we can get something out of the incoming freshmen, but the returnees are going to get the majority of the playing time, at least early, so the time for them to start getting better is NOW.
Posted by Plasticman on March 30, 2008 at 10:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)
A solid point guard and big inside presence will help wonders. We did not have a half-court offense , mainly due to these 2 deficiencies. Hopefully Williams will improve and Jurick can contribute while West can run the point with Ramar (if he gets more under control and learns to hit FT's) Need Hopson to provide an outside shooting threat, otherwise, teams will pack in a tight zone against us next season.
Posted by murrayvol on March 30, 2008 at 12:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Great article John. Love it when you run the numbers. I'm guessing Pearl wouldn't disagree w/these conclusions too much.
"Controlled chaos" is a good basketball concept that when properly "staffed & implemented" generates turnovers, excitement, and a lot of points. After the Memphis game as Pennington points out it too often became.....well, simply chaos.
Posted by oldbasshead on April 3, 2008 at 10:49 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I commented about half-way through the season that the Vols did not have much of a half-court game. I also noticed that the Vols were very locked into either taking a 3 point shot or driving the rim. They hardly ever took the pull up jump shot(except for Tyler). In addition, I thought UT was one of the weakest teams I saw in setting the pick to free up a perimeter shooter. I did notice that the Vols were not getting as many turnovers late in the season, but thought that was by design because they started going inside more.
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