"Don't you know that you are a shooting star?" - Bad Company

Last week, after writing that Tennessee was in the midst of a downward trend, I was asked by a couple of Vol fans (who happened to believe that this year's team will turn things around) just when I thought UT's "downward trend" began.

I immediately said 2002.

After a minute or two, they countered, "But Tennessee's had three 10-win seasons since then." True enough, but in the world of 13- and 14-game seasons, 10 wins aren't what they used to be.

But for the sake of argument, here's why I think 2002 marked the start of the slide: Peyton Manning's influence had dissipated by that point.

From the time Manning stepped onto the UT campus in 1994 to the time the last of the recruits connected to Manning left campus in 2001, Tennessee was as dominant as any team in the nation.

Number 16 was a huge recruiting draw for the Vols. Some players came to UT to play with him. Others came because they watched the Vols dissect opponents in 1997, under the direction of Manning.

The last players to make fall visits to Neyland Stadium during The Manning Era were the class of 2002, who visited during Peyton's senior season (when the Vols went 6-0 at home with an average win of 34-14). Those guys signed in February of 1998. They were freshman that fall, sophomores in '99, juniors in 2000 and seniors in '01.

Had numerous juniors not left early after the 1999 season, you can bet that Tennessee would have finished better than 8-4 in 2000. In fact, the only four-loss seasons between '94 and '01 were 2000 and 1994, a season which didn't come into focus until Manning, a true freshman, became the UT starter.

But since 2002, the best the Vols have mustered were a pair of three-loss seasons. There have been two four-loss seasons, a five-loss season and the 5-6 debacle of 2005. If Tennessee loses two more games this season, UT will have lost at least five games in three of the last seven campaigns.

You can see the numbers for yourself. Since 2002, when there were no more Manning-connected players on The Hill, Tennessee has seen a drop in productivity.

"Here you come again, just when I'm about to make it work without you. You waltz right in the door, just like you've done before, and wrap my heart around your little finger." - Dolly Parton

Georgia was embarrassed by Tennessee last year. Now the Vols are having to travel to their house on a date that's been circled on the Bulldogs' calendar for a year.

Sounds like Florida versus Tennessee in reverse doesn't it? And you know how that turned out … the calendar-circlers got lit up again.

On paper, there is no reason to pick Tennessee in today's football game. And that's exactly why I'm going to do it. Not because of backs against walls or "putting it all together," but because they've done it to Georgia before.

Phillip Fulmer has coached his teams up against Georgia. In 1992, as an interim coach, he bested Georgia with a bruising running game. Same thing last year. In 2006 he kept his team focused and led them to a 51-33 victory despite falling into a 24-6 hole in the first half. Even in 2002, he played sixth-ranked Georgia to an 18-13 loss in Athens with James Banks running his offense.

This Tennessee team dominated both lines of scrimmage in last year's game. The offensive and defensive lines for both teams are almost the same. If Tennessee is going to beat either Georgia or Alabama (and Fulmer needs to beat one of them), this is the Vols' best chance for a win.

Lastly, there's also the Dracula Factor. Every time the talk-radio and chatroom Van Helsing's think they've got the stake just above Fulmer's heart, he turns into a bat and flaps away.

So all the people openly speculating about who Tennessee's next coach will be might want to wait a few weeks to see how things play out. Fulmer is a fighter and a survivor. The last laugh has been his on many occasions.

"I gave my last chance to you. Don't hand it back to me, Bitterblue." - Cat Stevens

So Johnny Majors said on Paul Finebaum's radio show this week that hiring Fulmer was his biggest mistake. So what?

The man continues to be baited by us in the media, and if put in the same situation, I don't know of a single person who would have good things to say about an employer who had fired them. Or a subordinate who had replaced them.

I, too, wish Majors would stop commenting on the situation, but when he's pressed again and again on the subject, do you really expect him to hold his tongue? Why should he? Because you and I don't want to hear about it anymore?

Put yourself in his shoes. Whether he was partly to blame for the poorly handled coaching change of 1992 or not, he's not going to see it that way. And neither would you.

Let Majors be Majors. The man gave a lot to UT. He rebuilt a program that had seriously slipped. And then, due to one factor or another, he was fired and replaced by a man that he had hired and promoted.

If you think you wouldn't be bitter over a situation like that, you're crazy. And this is America. Right or wrong, he can speak his mind. Even if you and I wish he wouldn't.

John Pennington hosts the Hall's Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE.

© 2008, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.