As Tennessee wraps up its preseason training camp and looks toward game week, it's an appropriate time for housekeeping. That includes acknowledging the large elephant in the corner.
It's not going away.
Tennessee's first football season under new coach Lane Kiffin is little more than a week away. But the program is still years away.
That's not meant to temper the excitement that has been building within UT fans for the last eight months. They should be excited.
Kiffin has assembled an exceptional coaching staff, made more recruiting inroads than anyone could have expected in his first year, and revitalized a stale program with the energy and work ethic that Urban Meyer has brought to Florida, and Nick Saban to Alabama.
But he's still years behind his most formidable competition. You don't close that gap with one recruiting class or two.
I believe this staff will be successful. I also believe UT won't be capable of winning an SEC championship before 2012. And the reasons are obvious.
n The overall talent is at a low ebb. Check the last NFL draft (when one UT player was taken) or the last UT season (when the Vols went 5-7).
n There's uncertainty at quarterback. Regardless of whether Jonathan Crompton or Nick Stephens is at quarterback, UT won't rank near the top of the SEC at the most important position.
There's also quarterback uncertainty beyond this season. I expect UT to sign a good quarterback in this recruiting class, but it still will have to develop him.
And how many teams win conference championships with a true freshman quarterback?
n The league's two best programs are at the top of their game, and UT has to play both Florida and Alabama every season.
Florida won the national title last season, and Alabama finished sixth in the final Associated Press poll. That's the first time both teams have finished in the AP top 10 since 1994.
n The SEC schedule will work against the Vols.
Take the 2010 season, for example. Florida and Alabama should still be top-10 programs. Georgia should be, too. And South Carolina will return more starters than any other team in the league.
Also, UT drops Auburn and picks up LSU from the West. That's not a plus. And it gets the Tigers on the road. That's not a plus, either.
Not only will the Vols play more good teams. They will play most of them back-to-back.
UT will play Oregon and Florida in back-to-back home games in September, then take on LSU and Georgia back-to-back on the road in October. After an open date, it will play back-to-back games against Alabama and South Carolina.
The 2011 season is only slightly easier. In September, the Vols will have back-to-back road games against Florida and North Carolina. In October, they will have four consecutive games against Georgia (home), LSU (home), Alabama (road) and South Carolina (home).
Then, in November, UT will pick up Arkansas in Fayetteville. Based on what coach Bobby Petrino did in his first season, the Hogs will be a bigger challenge then than they are now.
So it's likely that in both 2010 and 2011, UT will have to play the top three teams from the West.
Those are the kind of obstacles UT will have to overcome in the next three years.
I realize college football rarely proceeds according to form. Programs lose key players to injury and early entry into the NFL. Coaches go pro, too.
And the way Kiffin has recruited can speed up the timetable on UT's rebuilding. In fact, just one freshman player can shake up the established order or at least prop up a sagging program. Freshman Herschel Walker turned Georgia into a national champion in 1980. Freshman Peyton Manning saved UT from a potentially disastrous season in 1994. Freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin helped Florida win a national title in 2006.
Imagine where UT would have been in 2000 if Casey Clausen hadn't been ready to play as a true freshman. You could say the same for 2004 when freshman quarterbacks Erik Ainge and Brent Schaeffer played well enough for UT to make the SEC championship game.
Kiffin's first recruiting class obviously has tremendous potential. His second class is shaping up nicely. But Alabama and Florida aren't exactly struggling in recruiting themselves.
And they had a head start.
Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.
© 2009, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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Comments » 206
the10sevol writes:
trying to fan the flames, ja, or flame the fans?
GBO
TommyJack writes:
TJ says 2011
Ironcity writes:
I say 2011. But I am not writing this team off just yet.
SportoVol writes:
Typical Adams. Nothing much else to say, so let's take one more shot at Fulmer. Look, you got what you wanted and he was replaced. Let it go and let's see what the new staff can do with the players they have. As usual, go with the negative and you can say I told you so if it comes true. If not, you will just get on the bandwagon and hope everyone forgets about this column. And trust me, with the usual drivel you post Adams, your columns are mostly forgettable.
davethevol writes:
JA certainly made a valid assessment. But, I still think the Vols have the ability to surprise a lot of folks this year and next now that they do have some playmakers on offense that they were lacking the last year or so.
Pdiddy10 writes:
what kind of article is this?!? why say this?!? try to get us fired up not saddened
BerryPick6 writes:
Just remember that the same year that Appy State beat Michigan; Michigan beat Florida in a bowl game. Anything can happen. That is why we play the games.
volspaws writes:
In his new book 'On Rocky Top', Clay Travis refers to Adams as 'short and portly'..Adams should be acknowledged from this point forward as "S&P"....hey S&P, stay out of the media food line at Neyland this year.sounds like you need to hit the treadmill instead
warriorman86#667191 writes:
You think his job his to get fans fired up? This isn't the UT PR Dept.
VOLS4LIFE writes:
"That's why you play the game...." took the words right out of my mouth. Why are you always so negative Adams? Can KNS get Wes Rucker from the Chattanooga Times? At least he's an alum.....Go Vols!
Witch_Doctor writes:
Witch Doctor believe Adams missed mark. Witch Doctor say recruiting class before Kiffin were in top 5-10 with Fulmer..Witch Doctor say last 3 recruiting classes filled with Big time players. Witch Doctor say reason of failure was clearly coaching/preparation/play-"clawing"(as in Clawson/Fulmer) Witch Doctor believe talent there, Witch Doctor say we see next week if they have bought in, Witch Doctor have every reason to think they have. Witch Doctor say now we see if cocky coach can back it up. Witch Doctor say bones say all coaches from NFL not leave if they not believe. Witch Doctor say before and say again, hang on this gonna be one wild ride. Bones never lie
*Witch Doctor know post long but trying to convey point.
bhjohnso#207063 writes:
he's not being negative....just realistic. he's calling it as he sees it, and i think he's right. of course you have to play the games, and anything can happen, but he's just laying out the facts. and it's not "taking a shot at Fulmer" saying 1 NFL draft pick and 5-7 record last year, because those things actually happened. i think his main point here is to call for a little patience with this staff, so fans don't throw them under the bus if they haven't won an SEC title in the next couple of years.
tweetdriver63#346474 writes:
I'm curious about the whole "overall talent at a low ebb" thing. Just for some perspective, I wonder how Adams feels about the overall talent level at Ole Miss, who I'm sure he, like almost everybody else, sees as one of the top teams in the West.
According to Scout.com, UT's recruiting classes 2005-2009 ranked 1, 24, 4, 35, and 8. Ole Miss' ranked 29, 15, 31, 38, and 17. Obviously Ole Miss' talent level is worse than ours, so why all the love for them, and all the doom and gloom for us?
I get all the arguments about the schedule being tough for the next few years, but when is it not tough?
798orange writes:
What is the point of trying to predict beyond this year? Its pointless because there are way too many variables with every team. John claims it is obvious they won't win the SEC until 2012, but later in the column states "I realize college football rarely proceeds according to form."
spvol writes:
S&P is a HACK.
Witch_Doctor writes:
Witch Doctor friend told Witch Doctor back in younger days at press conference Adams "took" an egg intended for Fulmer. Witch Doctor friend tell Witch Doctor Adams never been same since. Witch Doctor believe Adams afraid to love again. Bones never lie
veinsoforange writes:
JA has a definite problem. Even if his prediction comes true, what's the point in publicizing such a negative article. I bet you don't see such a terrible article EVER come out of the Gainesville Times. That would be unheard of. I sure wish JA would transfer to gatorland or some other forbidden place!
ncvol17 writes:
Adams is a soothsayer.. we need a QB who is wise beyond his 18 yrs to spearhead our resurgence. it won't be this year and very tough next year...darn I'm getting too old to wait too many years...
david.roe#232850 writes:
john,
makes sense. on any given day teams that play with heart win. the vols hearts are growing. 11' with some 9' 10' big wins. you gotta believe! give me a w - with bama first - starting in 09'
RJ_Vol writes:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football...
I wonder what Scroggins is thinking about right now...
paden312 writes:
You're also assuming that none of those teams have bad years...you of all people should know that football works in cycles just like everything else in life. Look at the teams of the past, a few good years, then a few bad years. USC is basically the exception...but if I'm not mistaking, they had some "off years" in the 90s. You never know when some key players will go down and cause the season to go downhill. Complete waste of your time Adams in writing this, and waste of my time in reading. Use the whole brain next time, instead of just half of it.
sleiii writes:
CONTRADICTION IN TERMS?
"And how many teams win conference championships with a true freshman quarterback?"
***
"In fact, just one freshman player can shake up the established order or at least prop up a sagging program. Freshman Herschel Walker turned Georgia into a national champion in 1980. Freshman Peyton Manning saved UT from a potentially disastrous season in 1994. Freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin helped Florida win a national title in 2006."
jaylit writes:
Damn it, according to the Mayans the world will end in 2012 so we will only be able to enjoy an SEC championship and not a national one.Now I won't even be able to enjoy the next three years because I know we have zero chance of winning the SEC against the mighty Urb or Saban and when we finally do win it will be for naught.Thank you John Adams for setting me straight, I will now lower my expectations and I apologize to anyone who I may have offended with my unrealistic goals of winning sooner rather than later.
stayingorange writes:
I'll say this is maybe 50/50, just like any predictions 2 years out - it might happen and it might not. I don't think the UT talent level is too low and I think Adams has repeatedly said the team was not performing to its talent level. Just because Carolina returns more players doesn't mean their any good. Petrino? I'd rather bet he's gone from Arkansas in 2 years. I could keep breaking this apart but I think the most obvious reason to discount any long-term predictions is this:
Two years ago UT was an interception away from winning the SEC and I truly believe that even by this year the Vols will be a better team than that one, let alone the 2010-2011 team.
Navalorange writes:
I don't know what his intent is, but to make a statement like that is just conjecture. The Walker comment went against his whole point. The talent gap is more narrow and will close quicker than he is predicting. I get the QB argument, but get someone like a Scroggins in here now, and you can't say we're three years away from the SECCG with any certainty.
BolivarBob writes:
Well hell DC, we shouldn't even play these next two years.
I haven't read any posts yet. This is just my initial, gut reaction to the article.
RJ_Vol writes:
LOL. I hear there are some shamrocks carved on a Mayan temple w/ a package of Oscar Meyers next to them. I'm not into ancient texts, but that 2010 next to that drawing might ought to have the Gators worried. It could be worse...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090826/a...
mbible1utk#324980 writes:
i think we have the best coaching staff in the country... which can speed up the turn around process. No doubt we got tough sledding, and I think we'll be better this year than next... but I have no reason to not believe we can be a pretty good team this year. We return a great defense, the offense will be the question, but without Fulmer in control, we should improve.
BolivarBob writes:
Yatzee
TurboFan writes:
I really really really hate to say it but I see JA's point. The SEC may be the toughest conference top to bottom but UF and UA are on a different tier than the rest of the conference. Lane will beat those he's suppose to beat and be competitive with the rest based on determination, heart, work ethic and discipline. But to be competitive with those two at the top more talent is needed and that talent then needs to be seasoned. That isn't to say that Meyer or Saban might not slide back due to complacency, ala Fulmer circa 2002, but you can't count on it.
I feel dirty now.
BigEVol writes:
Win SEC in 2012? Ha! I expect a National Championship in 2 years. Oscar Meyer got it in year 2, and Nick Satan nearly did. Yes, Florida was loaded when Meyer got there, but Alabama's talent level was no better than TN's now - Satan recruited well and played a ton of freshmen. The expectation has already been set. Be optimistic - expect greatness! Get on the train! Go Vols!
vw writes:
Come on JA, Im against all the JA hate comments but you didnt help your cause with this one. We shall be competing next year. LSU with Miles is a trainwreck in the making. Im with WitchDoctor on this one, though he needs to go back to nashvilles craigslist
VOLuptuous writes:
I was looking over the schedules today, and the same thought occurred to me....the SEC is freaking brutal....still excited, though
teampenny#658108 writes:
Gators have been to 17 straight bowl games-no losing seasons. That is a long cycle.
DennisVols writes:
Adams: And how many teams win conference championships with a true freshman quarterback?
Adams:Imagine where UT would have been in 2000 if Casey Clausen hadn't been ready to play as a true freshman. You could say the same for 2004 when freshman quarterbacks Erik Ainge and Brent Schaeffer played well enough for UT to make the SEC championship game.
Seems like he answered his own question.
"The overall talent is at a low ebb. Check the last NFL draft (when one UT player was taken) or the last UT season (when the Vols went 5-7)."
When you finish 5-7 and have the kind of year UT had few players are going to be on the NFL Radar. Foster was a 2nd round NFL pick had he left following his Jr year.
This team was so poorly coached it overshadowed the talent that was here. Most of the existing players on this team were part of top 10 recruiting classes so the overall talent level is not down as Adams would suggest. They are in fact very thin at certian positions. They do need to recruit a top level QB in this class but both JC and NS where highly rated when they were recruited. The fact that the previous coaching staff failed to develop either of them into elite QB's does not mean this staff cannot accomplish this.
As far as the scheduling goes, if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. The last time I looked every football field is 100 yeards between the goal lines and 50 yeards wide so no matter where you play there is no difference in the field. Great teams win on the road.
Adams logic is flawed and of poor reasoning. This year will determine just how quick UT is back in the championship hunt. Marked improvement in the offense and a overall improvement in the competitive way this team plays will boost an already good recruiting class into a great one and Kiffin, unlike CPF, has no problem making freshmen game ready.
2010 UT has a outside shot at winning the east and by 2011 will be considered one of the favorites.
Keeping it Real
Go Vols!!!
tenmanjonez#561272 writes:
Adams, last time I checked, the last time a team came close to winning the SEC championship with a true freshman was... hmm who was it?....
oh right... IT WAS US with Mr Erik Ainge.
We came pretty damn close to beating, who i think was the best team in the nation, auburn in that game as well. Granted we had a pretty good run game, but never the less, it was still a true freshman bolstered team.
Down_The_Field writes:
blah.....blah.....blah....why don't you show up to the vol locker room and tell them they CAN'T win. you may find yourself trying to pry a football out of your nose.
i'll bet you were just another media punk that predicted the vols to loose in 1989 after a disastrous 1988 season. i remember the 1998 team wouldn't make it either due to a new qb and injuries on the d-line.
i'll also bet you sided with moscow over the 1980 USA hockey team too.
GO VOLS!
andy112382#209793 writes:
Funny thing, people were citing the same things when Ainge had his meltdown his sophmore year, yet we played (and very well could have won) for the SEC title just two seasons ago. How could we be so far away when we are not far removed at all from our last SEC title game appearance???
If anything, we have even more exciting players ready to hit the scene. Gerald Jone and Denarious Moore have tons of chance to be big time players once they are healed up. Bryce Brown - 'nough said. Richardson and Teague and highlights waiting to happen. Brandon Warren stepped up to the challenge from the sounds of it, and...well, Eric Berry, once again 'nough said there. Now they have a staff that will actually fire up the sidelines and fanbase.
99gator writes:
you all may not like it, but i think adams is dead on.
2009....ain't happening.
2010....you will be younger than you are this year. who will be playing qb and who will the o-lineman be? eric berry will be gone.
2011.....at alabama and at florida. assuming meyer and saban are coaching at that time, winning on the road against either school is a chore.
these are all under the assumption that alabama, florida, georgia, lsu, continue to recruit as they have.
this is also under the assumption that tennessee can recruit at the level lsu, florida, georgia, and alabama have.
paden312 writes:
yes...but they weren't at the same level that they are now. Look at the Zook years or the last years of Spurrier. Sure they went to bowl games, but they weren't going to the Nat'l Champ or going to the SEC everyone of those years previously noted. Not every team is championship caliber EVERY year. You can surely put that together. AND If there is no way UT can win maybe they should stay in the hotel and not even come out.
pj_volnindy writes:
Just read that USC (as in S. Cal) is starting a true freshman quarterback. I guess Pete didn't call Adams first...or maybe lowered his expectations.
99gator writes:
it's not a matter of whether winning the SEC earlier than that is impossible. of course, anything is possible.
the main idea of the article is that the odds are long for various reasons.
1. a talent gap. (which exists. for the people who keep mentioning where recruiting classes were rated.....at some point, crompton stops being a 5* qb and has to be considered a bad college qb)
2. no qb
3. scheduling problems.
and IMO, he's exactly right.
06143831 writes:
Well Mr. Adams, I really can't express how dumb I think you are after this article. Overall talent is at low ebb. because 1 player went to draft last year, right. I have one question for you. How many of our players were graduating last year at a starting position? The ratio doesn't seem that bad now does it? Put that in your pipe and smoke it Adams. It would be nice if you would pull Tebow's c0ck out of your @ss and start writing like you are a writer for UT, not UF.
06143831 writes:
on yeah, you can blame last season on bad coaching, an offensive playbook meant for yale graduates, lack of fire, and mixed messages sent from coaching staff. Sometimes "trying like heck" and "dog gawnits" don't get it done.
newtonrail writes:
The sky is falling. Chicken Adams, move over.
Vols033 writes:
I see his point. We have to be realistic guys. We probably won't be in contention until 2012 unless we have a very special player step forward for our offense before then. I know most of you will say "we have Bryce" but at one time we had Jabari Davis and before him we had Brian Darden. They were two highly rated running backs who were huge bust. Our success will ultimately depend on how well Nick Stephens can learn the offense and produce next year. We will not win a championship with a true freshman at quarterback, and anyone who says we will needs to take off their orange sunglasses and be realistic. I am a huge Vols fan and i bleed as much orange as everybody else, but in reality we are a 7 or 8 win team this year, and considering our needs on our team (quarterback and brand new offensive line) we won't be much better next year. I hope I am wrong but that is just the way it is.
CRFVols writes:
Why even write this article? We know that the possibility is low, but why put it out there in the media? What if our boys see this article from one of "our" reporters? I don't think we need this negativity right now, we had enough of it just getting through the season last year.
tweetdriver63#346474 writes:
Actually, the Mayans didn't put that much importance on the 2012 date. The thing about Mayans is, unlike other ancient civilizations that have disappeared, Mayans are still around, still speak the language, and tell the stories that have been handed down for centuries.
I'm a lot more worried about Dec 31st, 2009 than I am about Dec 21st, 2012. I've noticed the calendar in my kitchen ends on that day! I'm thinking appocolypse!
I did read some interesting bible codes, though. In one area considered by scholars to be significant, are the words: "Superman" and "closet," then "Lizards" and "Suck," and finally, "Trophy" and "Berry."
GBO!
movol77 writes:
As GVX wraps up its preseason coverage and looks toward game week, it's an appropriate time for housekeeping. That includes acknowledging the small mouse in the corner. JA.
volzcrushm writes:
LISTEN TO THE WITCH DOCTOR. The talent is there. If our new coaches are for real, then we will give everybody fits this year....and next year could be contenders.
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