Tennessee football has a recent history of sudden turnarounds.
After the 1988 team stumbled through a 5-6 season, the Vols rebounded to win 11 of 12 games in their next season. Following a 5-6 season in 2005, the next team bounced back to go 9-4.
Combine that history with all the enthusiasm engendered by first-year coach Lane Kiffin and his staff, and UT fans have reason to be optimistic about the upcoming season. Surprisingly, that optimism isn't fostering unrealistic expectations.
Most UT fans envision improvement from last year's 5-7 disaster. But I haven't heard of anyone making plans for the SEC championship game in Atlanta.
And if they're conscientious enough planners to make bowl reservations six months in advance, they probably have rooms in Memphis and Nashville, not in New Orleans or Florida.
The lowered expectations could make this one of the most enjoyable UT seasons in recent years. A winning season and bowl bid - once taken for granted - could be celebrated.
Since UT won a national championship in 1998, how many seasons have actually been celebrated?
The 1999 season was a disappointment as soon as the Vols lost to Florida. A team that had enough talent to repeat as national champions later lost to Arkansas and was overwhelmed by Nebraska in the fourth quarter of the Fiesta Bowl.
Bowl losses like that occurred more and more often in the last decade of the Phillip Fulmer era, and those post-season defeats invariably obliterated the goodwill built over the regular season.
The 2000 team struggled to a 2-3 start before winning its last six regular-season games. Just when Vols fans were encouraged about the direction of their program, UT was overwhelmed by Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl.
Back-to-back bowl losses to Maryland and Clemson, respectively, following the 2002 and 2003 seasons, had a similar impact on UT fans. So did the Outback Bowl loss to Penn State after the 2006 season.
In the last 10 years, UT fans probably felt really good about their program at the end of two of those seasons - first, after the Vols routed Michigan in the Florida Citrus Bowl to cap an 11-2 season in 2001, and three years later when UT pulled out narrow victories over Kentucky and Vanderbilt to win the SEC East, then thrashed Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl.
UT fans might not need a bowl victory to be encouraged this season. Improvement would be enough, especially if the freshmen from Kiffin's first recruiting class make significant strides over the course of the season.
You can't necessarily measure those strides in the won-lost record. For example, consider Kiffin's football powerhouse role model, Southern California, where he was an assistant under Pete Carroll.
Like Kiffin, Carroll took over a program that had gone 5-7 the previous season. His first team lost five of its first seven games, won its last four regular-season games and lost to Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Since then, USC hasn't won fewer than 11 games in a season.
Nick Saban started similarly at Alabama, going 7-6 in 2007 on the heels of a seven-loss season that cost Mike Shula his job. A year later, the Tide went 12-0 before losing to Florida in the SEC championship game.
I'm not suggesting anything of that magnitude at UT. Both Carroll and Saban took over programs that had considerably more talent on hand. After a transitional year, that talent came to the forefront.
Kiffin isn't that fortunate. He doesn't have a quarterback like USC's Carson Palmer on campus or an offensive lineman like Alabama's Andre Smith. Aside from a few exceptions, he will have to recruit his best players.
So this turnaround won't be as sudden. But it still can be enjoyable.
Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.
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Comments » 73
pms151 writes:
Man you are the most pessimistic SOB on the planet. On top of that you don't know football. You are not a credible sportswriter in anyone's circle.
volfaninwh writes:
we will win 8 this year. good article
vol_chaz writes:
talk about negative...is it that time of the month, pms?
makessense writes:
you have pms
live your own misserable life and dont talk to the rest of us please
life is to short to be this angry
why dont you become a sports writer and put adams out of a job and your problem will be solved
BigOrangeScrew writes:
Expectations should not be low but they should be realistic. I believe this article is dead on. We, as UT fans, need to realize that the program has slipped a bit and we aren't at the top of the heap anymore. Let's all look at this as an opportunity to enjoy the rise back to prominance and not get bent out of shape if we don't win 10 games in a season. I'm not saying that we shouldn't want to win every game we play, but let's try to enjoy the ride a little. Let's focus on our team's effort level and improvement each week and the wins and championships will come. UT is the winningest college football program over the past 75 years after all.
GO VOLS!!!
ArealVolFan writes:
I don't want to be overly optimistic here, but I think John Adams might be under rating the quality of talent on this team in comparison to Saban's first Bama team or Caroll's first USC team. Yes, we have no proven QB on the roster and no one committed yet, but still we have Berry and Brown could become an outstanding back in the SEC along with Oku. I think the talent is better on this team than what either of those two had in their first years. I think 8-4 is where we will land, excluding a bowl. In 2010 without knowing the QB situation or the schedule entirely off hand I would think 10 or so wins would be entirely possible. I think the only reason we might not be able to jump straight up to a 10+ win season in 2010 is the QB situation. With a new QB I think its hard to win that many games. I would expect a 10+ win season in 2011 though.
govols082859#1369959 writes:
If we win 10 games, I say we all get together to tar and feather John Adams!
Anybody with me?
smyrnavol writes:
i'm sure you are trying to live up to your screen name with your nega-post(kinda like naffy does), but adams is just printing facts on this one. i for one think a bowl is a big deal this year. i'll even go so far as to say it's a must if we want to land the elite athletes that are 50/50, or are leaning to other schools. other teams are concerned right now, with what is happening on the hill. if we can come out and hold our own this year, win 8 or 9, maybe even 10 games, and dominate a bowl game. the 4 and 5 star players will come. then the other schools will hate to see the vols on their schedule once again. as far as sportswriters go let's see some of your work big boy. go vols!!!
VolNWA writes:
On the optimistic side, we were after all, only a few plays away from being 8-4 and headed to a bowl game last year!
teampenny#658108 writes:
I see no reason to slam Adams-the article is accurate. We are short on the number of players, middle of the pack in talent in SEC, unproven coach, and tough road trips. Eight win season would be something to cheer about. Wish Vol fans would make up their minds about the Star system on players. When we get highly Starred players they are great and when we get lower ones the coaches can coach them up.. This stuff is funny. Until all the victories come and the coaches really have coached someone up here in Tennessee I will remain realistic about the games we play. As i see it so far: staff has kept players out of trouble and they signed a good class. Go Vols
MidTennVol writes:
Ten wins minimum, plus a bowl victory, to convince me these guys can coach.
We should beat WKU, UCLA, Ohio, Auburn, Georgia, So. Carolina, Memphis, Ole Miss, Vandy and KY.
Losses should be FL and AL.
weliketoliealot writes:
You all like to trash John Adams, but he was 100% on his Phillip Fulmer assesment. He may not know football, but he knows how to create buzz and sell papers. I hate to say it, but I think unless you are an ostrich and have your head buried, winning any bowl this year would be a big deal.
mcever writes:
Well... the only reason I'm forseeing a 10+ win season, is because the upcoming juniors and seniors were recruited to play in a pro style offense... but last year, we changed our offense to a much different scheme. This year, we will be going back to the offense the upperclassmen were recruited for, and should prosper. This should kick our offense off along with the highly touted recruiting class and Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 to allow the backfield to force some turnovers.
ArealVolFan writes:
That is the most ridiculous set of expectations for this team. Fans like you cause good Coaches to loose their jobs. We could easily loose Al, FL, USC, GA, and Ole Miss. Each one of those teams have far more developed talent than we do. I don't think we loose them all, but I think def FL,Al, and Ole Miss. The rest are swing games.
GreerVol22 writes:
It's way too early to be fretting over what might be's and what if's. Just enjoy what has happened to date with the changes.... go buy you a new lucky orange shirt, wax the car the old one cause its sucks, get some tix and get your butts to the game and enjoy it for what it is. It's great to be a Tennessee VOL!
txvolsfan writes:
I really believe that since Coach Fulmer left, Adams articles have been pretty positive and very accurate!!!
AllVol2008#1353998 writes:
Exactly. Exactly. Exactly.
99gator writes:
georgia as a "should win"?
AllVol2008#1353998 writes:
Why not? Cox is unproven. Our defense will be strong, and it's at home. Any offense at all from us, and it should at least be close in the 4th quarter.
ethanfrome writes:
The only thing that I didn't agree with was Adams' description of the 2000 season. I certainly never felt good about it. All I remember thinking was that we were very young, that it was a rebuilding year, and that we only got a New Year's Bowl game because of our name. I knew K-state was going to whip our butts.
TommyJack writes:
Seven wins and a bowl game would be a good start for CLK.
chbradshaw writes:
Please do not associate the city of Memphis with a bowl game reward and a successful season.
The Liberty Bowl is a joke and should be allowed to die a peaceful death.
The city itself hates Tennessee and lives with a perpetual chip on its shoulder.
No good Tennessee football season concludes in Memphis. Memphis is where bad teams are punished at the end of the year.
rockytopatl writes:
How can you not know how to spell a four-letter word? I'm at a loss.
TommyJack writes:
..........wow, CH. You hate Elvis too?
movol77 writes:
JA is at it again. He is notorious for twisting stats against Tennessee and sweetening the opponents.
"Tide went 12-0 before losing to Florida in the SEC championship game." That should read "Tide went 12-2 after a great start but lost the last TWO games of the season." Two losses doesn't fit the story line so he ignores the last game as if it never happened.
Notice the negative slant against TN when he says, "UT pulled out narrow victories over Kentucky and Vanderbilt to win the SEC East, then thrashed Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl." Notice how JA wants clarify that TN "pulled out narrow victories" over two traditionally weaker teams before winning a big bowl victory. Winning out the season doesn't fit the story line.
ThurmondEppy writes:
Off topic, I love the BigOrangeScrew username. When I went to UT, that was the phrase everybody used every time there was a campus snafu. If you didn't get the class you wanted at "drop and add" you got the big orange screw. If you missed getting your football tickets, it was the big orange screw. If the administration did something we didn't like, it was the big orange screw...etc etc ad infinitum. Funny stuff.
tngeoff2 writes:
Good column John. Very well thought out and true.
GerryOP writes:
JA is dead on. Joy in Tennessee football has been a long time coming ... and we may have to wait another year or two. A few good wins this year will help recruiting, but how the guys play will be more important.
Last year the team was often beaten by the end of the 1st half and had no pride. No pride in themselves and no pride in our University. Saw more emotion and excitement in the O & W game this year than at any time during the entire '08 season.
54 -- Fear The Kiffin...
lildhoss76ut#638162 writes:
8-4 with a bowl win and i would be dancing in the streets. The recruits would take notice and 10 win seasons would become the norm after that. Have faith in the coaches,thats all we can do.Go Vols!
Bigger_Al writes:
I'm with you, but I don't want to wait for the 10 games.
theoldbear writes:
When I look at the schedule for next year, I only see three games that I think we WILL win. There are three others that we SHOULD win. There are two others that we COULD win.
The first Vol game I saw, Doug Atkins played.
Frankly, in nearly sixty years of watching Vol football, this may be the lowest point in my memory. Even when we've had bad teams in the past, we players that were outstanding. Eric Berry is probably the only real "star" on this present roster. We've got some touted freshmen, but they haven't played a minute of SEC football.
The quarterback situation was abysmal last year, and I see no hope for improvement this year.
Nor has Lane Kiffin ever been a head coach in an SEC football game.
I was there when a young coach named Doug Dickey took over.
I watched his first team struggle to beat a mediocre Army team. And I was there when he led us, briefly, to a Number One ranking and the cover of Sports Illustrated.
And I was there when a young coach named Bill Battle took over. He has never coached again since he left Tennessee.
I will be there when Lane Kiffin coaches.
And if I live long enough I'll be around for his replacement.
I don't see things much differently from Adams. In fact, I may not be as optimistic as he is.
Go Vols! Beat somebody!
Go4Two writes:
All you guys picking us to win 9 games must have forgotten about the QB play from last year. Today's football is a QB driven game if your QB can't make plays you could lose to just about anyone. I would say the over and under is 6 with the Auburn and UCLA games deciding the bowl fate.
hotrodvol writes:
Come on Dane, give CLK a chance. We should beat WKU,UCLA,Ohio,Auburn*,SC*,Memphis,Vandy,and KY.
Swing game Georgia.
Losses should be UF, Ole Miss,and bama.
(*)Could be losses.
Prediction, 8-4 with a good bowl game, because our fans will travel to see our team play this year.
DennisVols writes:
UT will have at least one upset win this season against UF, UGA or Bama. There will be improvements in all areas including QB performance.UT will be bowl bound come the end of the season.
The biggest improvement I am expecting this year is in competitiveness throughout each game. No more sideline shots of players sitting down, heads bowed looking like they are in a prayer meeting instead of a football game.
The defense will be stout and will keep UT in every game, including UF. I expect the offense will not lose us games like we saw last year with turnovers deep in our own end or worse in our own end zone.
So to sum it up a strong defense, a offense that doesn't appear clueless and being competitive is my expectations.
That alone will get some of the top verbal commentments to other schools to change their minds and choose UT on signing day giving CLK and Co another top 10 class to continue to build on. I know some of the players we are after are on a "wait and see" basis concerning this new staff. So a good year with improvements will persuade some to change their decisions.
Keeping it real.
Go Vols!!
Psychovol writes:
The Vols will have 9 wins this season and one will be a signature win they can hang their hat on for next year. They will go to a bowl and win the game unlike the Fulmer era. The coaches will create a recruiting factory by 2011. The Vols won't be great for a while but they will be good and in a fews years they'll return to the dynasty status of the 90's. The Great Pumpkin has been retired. Where's the Witch Doctor? He'll tell you.
bigtangerine writes:
The 2001 season was a huge disappointment to me. We took a Rose Bowl team, choked and settled for a win in the Citrus against one of the worst teams Michigan has had in the last 20 years.
It was a disgrace. How can you enjoy NOT being in the national championship game when the talent is in place and you have LSU on the ropes but can't stop the quaterback draw with a backup on the field.
Pitiful. We haven't place in a BCS game since January 2, 2000. That's NINE YEARS people. We haven't seen the Citrus and Orlando since January of 2008, EIGHT YEARS.
This is not an elite program anymore.
jack_2222#231746 writes:
In 1999 UT was on course to play for the national champoinship- again- until Arkansas got them in Fayetteville. To say the season was a disappointment immediately after the close florida loss is a typical ridiculous Adams overstatement- sure the loss was disappointing but the season was definitely alive and well.
And Adams found the 2007 season end disappointing, UT having won the SEC East, played eventual NC LSU close in the title game and beaten Wisconsin in a bowl?
Typical Adams-- attempting to make things look better or worse than they really are to suit his agenda. Half truths and distortions are his tools.
Go4Two writes:
We haven't seen the Citrus and Orlando since January of 2008, EIGHT YEARS.
Sums up this post
RJ_Vol writes:
J.A. is already running a "front" for the new coach. I expect UT to compete for the SEC title this year - not in two years. I think CLK would concur. Why would we expect anything else? This article is a fraudulent, backhanded swipe at the state of the program. What a steaming pile of doublespeak! Geaux home.
DennisVols writes:
You must be a P Fulmer boot licker yourself. You know so little about UT history that it would take weeks to explain it to you.
So why don't you go back in your room and dream about a Fulmer Christmas. You know how that goes? You believe every year this is the year you are going to get what you always wanted but all you get is a promise in the end that it will get better.
RJ_Vol writes:
LOL...
TommyJack writes:
Bulletin: There's a difference between what you hope for and what is likely.
RJ_Vol writes:
Things in UT's favor this year:
1. UGA w/ a new QB.
2. Outstanding talent at RB position. Maybe the best depth ever? Time will tell.
3. According to Athlon, best skill position recruiting in ten years.
4. "Coach'em up" philosophy.
5. WKY. They won't roll over, but at least we don't play UCLA first.
6. Bama' w/ a new QB.
7. The secondary - period.
8. As "m-ash" said, unpredictability. I will definitely not miss the running play into the strength of the defensive line.
9. Assistant coaching staff.
10. Monte. He get's his own number.
11. The fans.
Wild cards...
1. D-Line. Could be surprisingly good.
2. Special teams. It can only get better. W/ speed coming in w/ recruits, our return game could get much better.
3. Kiffin's lack of experience in big game coaching situations as HC.
4. NCAA secondary violations.
5. South Carolina
Negatives...
1. I think Chavis's loss will loom large. Again, will not miss the third-and-long completion for a first down, nor the Mustang defense.
2. Lack of depth at LB. Lack of LB's in general.
3. @ Florida. It will be a large upset if UT wins that game. Florida is more experienced and talented. BUT, it's the end of the trend. That program will peak next year, w/ a quick bubble burst in the following years IMO. Miami is getting better and FSU will follow once Bowden leaves. In other words, Florida is about to split its recruiting base.
4. Kicking game - both punting and place kicking. Thank goodness we have the nation's no. 1 placekicker coming in 2010.
UTVol39 writes:
I'm almost speechless at this post. Wait a minute...no I'm not, I've got plenty to say. You must be writing this post from Amsterdam, cause you obviously are smoking something. It's going to take 10 wins to convince you these guys can coach??????? You're expecting them to double the amount of wins from last year, after not even 1 full year on the job? Wow!!! Simply amazing.
Do I think 10 wins is completely out of the realm of possibilities...not necessarily. Do I think it's probable...nope. The most likely scenario is 7-5 (losses vs FL, AL, GA, Ole Miss, and SC)with another probable scenario of 8-4 (losses vs FL, AL, GA, and either Ole Miss or SC). Getting to 9 or 10 wins would most likely take an act of God.
I would love a 10 win season, but it's time to start being realistic and stop thinking with your heads up your butts. Some people just make me shake my head.
GerryOP writes:
All of you guys dwelling on what happened last year, or even what happened since 2000, come on out of your caves. With a 100% turnover of coaching staff; around a 35% squad turnover; and a 1000% improvement in attitude, enthusiasm, and dedication, nothing we will ever see again will bear a resemblance to last year or the past 8 years of Tennessee football.
Stop looking back ... move forward.
The '09 record? No one has seen the Kiffin Vols play football. What we do know is that the Kiffin Vols will not lay down by the half and rollover and play dead by the end of the game. Just like the zero arrests and the improvements in GPA, improvements in attitude, dedication, and enthusiasm will go a long way towards improving the record on the field.
54 -- Fear The Kiffin...
Orangebrewbasher writes:
Pessimistic = Realistic
Nice article again John
hotrodvol writes:
8-4, 3rd in the east. This is what most of the media is picking UT. I agree, and I hope for more.
http://blogs.ajc.com/barnhart-college...
chad_t31 writes:
As a realist, there won't be a BCS bowl for us this year. But the ritzcracker/johndeerelawnmower.com bowl in Kalamazoo, Michigan won't fly over well with any true vol fan. Also, magicman, you need to lay off the crack. If we win only one game this year, it will be against Kentucky. That's just a ridiculous statement...the streak will continue. 1984-................
oldervol writes:
We could go 8,9,10,11,. The attitude, and all that go with it are in place! Mark it down!
jeremyinitalia writes:
Amen. Out side of the '96 Rose Bowl year with Keyshawn, USC was in a much bigger funk than UT has been in. Carroll had Palmer (who had thrown more INTs than TDs in each of his previous years as QB), but not much else. SC's talent on defense was horrible, and they had rbs that could not get separation behind a suspect O-line. (kind of like UT last year). SC was frustrating to watch and was always out of sync. I remember the biggest "3rd and Chavis" game ever when SC played UCLA with Cade McNown. It seemed like SC had them 3rd and 18 every series and they would convert it. SOOO frustrating.
I think Kiffin will have more success at UT than Carroll had in his first year at SC. I think Kiffin inherits more talent than Carroll did at SC.
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