Pennington: Madness trying to pick first opponent

In just a few hours you'll have your NCAA tournament bracket in front of you. Like the fans of 64 other schools, you, the Tennessee fan, will have convinced yourself that a Sweet 16 run is inevitable.

And it may well be. But it will depend on the types of teams placed in the Vols' four-team pod. Effort always matters, but matchups are deadly important in March.

In the past I've used these pre-selection columns to layout the teams UT might want to face (or avoid) based on the tempo of potential opponents. The faster the teams (like Long Beach State), the better. The slower the teams (like Butler), the more dangerous.

Sure enough, the selection committee did pair the Vols with Long Beach State in 2007 and with Butler in last year's second round.

But this season's Tennessee team is different. The press hasn't been as big a part of coach Bruce Pearl's repertoire. Which means tempo isn't everything.

So if it's not all about tempo this year, what types of teams to do the Vols want to face? And what types of teams do they want to bypass?

Percentage Of Points From 3-Point Range

Unlike last year, Tennessee has a size advantage on many of the teams they play. We'll talk about actually playing "physically" in a minute, but I'm just talking about pure height, the ability to control the paint.

Digging into the numbers, looking for hidden patterns, I found that Tennessee has destroyed teams that live by the three. You know, teams like the previous three Vol squads.

Against teams that rely heavily on 3-point shooting, Tennessee has been dominant. The Vols are 7-2 (.777) this season against opponents that got at least 28.7 percent of their points from beyond the arc.

On the flipside, Tennessee was just 12-9 (.571) against bigger teams that could score more easily inside the arc.

That's a pretty big swing of the pendulum.

So here are some possible tourney teams that scored more than 28.7 percent of their points from 3-point land … teams UT might want to face:

American, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Clemson, Creighton, Illinois State, Miami, (Fla.), Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin, UNLV and Utah.

Butler (not as much of a tempo concern this season) and Louisville (UT is bigger this season) would also fit the bill. So would Temple, who's already proven that even UT doesn't want to catch one of these outside-shooting teams on one of their hot days.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

Here's another hidden stat: the percentage of possible rebounds a team grabs on the offensive end. It's important because those rebounds equal second- and third-chance points in the paint.

Against teams that rank in the top 100 in offensive rebounding percentage (grabbing at least 35.0 percent of all possible offensive caroms), UT went just 2-7 (.222) in the regular season. The losses came to Kansas, Kentucky, Memphis, LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama. Their two wins came against UT Martin and Middle Tennessee State.

Against teams that don't do well on the offensive glass (grabbing fewer than 35 percent of possible offensive rebounds), the Vols were a blistering 17-4 (.809).

The losses came to Temple, Auburn and Gonzaga (twice). That's it.

So even if Tennessee holds a height advantage, they need to rebound well on the defensive end. When they get pushed around and allow second- and third-chance points in the paint, bad things happen.

Here are some teams that own the offensive glass … teams that Tennessee might want to avoid:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Kansas State, Miami (Florida), Memphis, Michigan State, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Providence, St. Mary's, Texas, Texas A&M, Washington, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Xavier, and UCLA.

Did you notice that Cincinnati, Clemson, Miami (Fla.) and Western Kentucky made both lists? They all rely on the three but they also clean the offensive boards. So draw your own conclusions as to whether or not the Vols want to find them in their bracket.

It's The Elite Eight, Not The Easy Eight

I'm not a big believer in the sins of the father theory. Therefore, I don't think Tennessee fans should be passing down past NCAA tournament frustrations to their current head coach.

Ray Mears never won an NCAA tournament game. Don DeVoe and Jerry Green never made it to the Elite Eight. Now some UT fans are applying those previous woes to Pearl's grade. "Let's see him get past the Sweet 16."

It's not fair to hold him to that standard yet.

When you look at a list of the winningest active coaches in America, you'll find that guys like Rick Barnes didn't reach his first Elite Eight until his 16th season as a head coach. Gary Williams (23rd season), Jim Boeheim (11th season) and Jim Calhoun (18th season) weren't quick arrivals, either.

Overall, Bob Huggins has reached just three Elite Eights in 23 seasons as a Division I coach. Boeheim has just four in 32 seasons. Barnes just two in 30 years.

Inside the conference, Florida's Billy Donovan is the only SEC coach out of 12 to have ever reached an Elite Eight.

Pearl is in just his eighth season as a Division I coach and in just his fourth at a major program. So it might be a bit early for the naysayers to be squawking about a lack of Elite Eight trips.

John Pennington hosts the Hall's Salvage Sports Source on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WATE.

© 2009, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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