Adams: Vols still have outside shot at Outback

The middle class might be struggling nationally. But it's thriving in the SEC, whose three-tier structure has a significant bulge in its mid-section.

Upper class: Florida and Alabama, unbeaten and leading candidates for the national championship.

Lower class: Vanderbilt, which needs only a loss to Tennessee on Saturday to complete a winless conference season.

Middle class: Everybody else.

You might want to quibble about Mississippi State's status since it stands 4-6. But the Bulldogs lost to No. 1-ranked Florida by only 10 points, came within inches of upsetting 10th-ranked LSU, and lost close games against nationally ranked Georgia Tech and Houston.

Also, the Bulldogs still have a mathematical shot at becoming bowl eligible. They would have to pull off back-to-back upsets against Arkansas and Ole Miss. That's not likely, but it's at least a possibility.

In fact, nine of the SEC's 12 teams could finish 6-6, 7-5 or 8-4. No one is more aware of the burgeoning middle class than the SEC-affiliated bowls, who will have to make sense of it all in a couple of weeks.

At 5-5, UT is as middle class as you can get. But there's room for upward mobility.

While watching the Vols futilely chase Ole Miss' Dexter McCluster for the better part of Saturday afternoon, I might have overreacted to their defense's rendition of slapstick comedy. The Vols looked as though they were slipping on banana peels every time they tried to tackle McCluster.

My conclusion: No way they could play in a New Year's Day bowl.

By the end of the day, I had changed my mind.

That's not implying that I suddenly deemed the Vols capable of tackling McCluster. My revised assessment reflected the outcomes of other SEC game.

If UT wins its last two games, it still could be the second-most attractive team in the SEC East. And that keeps it in the running for the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla.

"We're wide open," said Mike Schulze, the bowl's director of communications and sponsorships. "There are so many possibilities."

UT is still one of them. Schulze said his bowl would have a representative at Saturday's UT-Vanderbilt game.

You know Alabama and Florida are headed for BCS bowls. The winner of Saturday's LSU-Ole Miss game becomes the favorite for the Capital One Bowl. The loser would be the favorite for the Cotton Bowl, unless the bowl is opposed to inviting the Rebels in back-to-back years. In that case, Arkansas might be a possibility for the Jan. 2 bowl in Dallas.

East teams Georgia (6-4) and Kentucky (6-4), who play each other Saturday in Athens, have better records than UT but that could change.

If Georgia beats Kentucky but loses to seventh-ranked Georgia Tech as expected, it would finish 7-5. A 7-5 UT team with a 45-19 victory over Georgia would have more bowl appeal.

Even if South Carolina beats Clemson next week and finishes 7-5, it also would be less attractive to bowls than UT at 7-5 since the Vols have a convincing victory over the Gamecocks. The Outback Bowl could go outside the East and pick Auburn, which is 7-4 but has an almost-certain loss coming against Alabama.

So if UT wins its last two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky, it still could be the hottest SEC team available to the Outback Bowl.

Sports editor John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.

© 2009, Knoxville News Sentinel Co.
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