In a place where college football matters as much as it does here, the offseason is supposed to be one long build-up for the season to come. But the last eight months have been more of a put-down for Tennessee football.
They have featured one setback after another, including the recent announcement by UT athletic director Mike Hamilton that he was canceling the 2011 game with North Carolina. He deemed Buffalo a more suitable opponent for a program scrambling to regain its footing after losing six or more games in three of the last five years.
In between the second-half collapse against Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and the ignominious buyout of North Carolina, the Vols lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Southern California and six potential starters - three of whom transferred, two who were injured and another ( Darren Myles) who was kicked off the team after his starring role in a barroom brawl.
Some build-up, huh?
Even before the losses began piling up at an unprecedented rate, no one had any illusions of a championship season. The Vols lost their four best players to the NFL, and the 2010 schedule looked ominous as far back as the last preseason. It includes No. 1-ranked Alabama, No. 4 Florida, No. 11 Oregon, No. 21 LSU and No. 23 Georgia.
Preseason polls brought more bad news. The Vols were picked to finish fifth in the SEC East (behind Kentucky, a team they have beaten 25 consecutive times). The preseason Associated Press poll provided another jolt. Listed among "others receiving votes" was Middle Tennessee State with two points. UT didn't scratch.
Did you ever think you would see MTSU get more points than UT in a Top 25 football poll?
Against that backdrop, how can UT fans be optimistic about this season?
Since I'm more attune to worst-case scenarios, perhaps I'm not the best guy to ask. But, in what might be considered a startling upset, I have come up with several reasons for optimism, provided, of course, you're starting with realistic expectations.
Reason 1: UT's worst seasons of the last 25 years weren't predictable.
The 2008 team that went 5-7 was a Top 25 pick in preseason. The 2005 team that finished 5-6 was expected to contend for the national championship.
And even though the 1988 team had to rebuild its defense, no one could have envisioned an 0-6 start. The Vols had strung together seven consecutive winning seasons, were coming off a 10-2-1 season in 1987 and returned seven starters on offense.
Reason 2: Given the challenges at hand, coach Derek Dooley is a good fit for UT's program.
He was part of Nick Saban's rebuilding job at LSU as an assistant and spent the last three years as the head coach at Louisiana Tech, which is one of the toughest FBS jobs in the country.
Dooley had two losing seasons at Louisiana Tech, but his second team went 8-5 and won the school's first bowl game in 30 years. Moreover, his teams played some of their best games against superior opponents.
Despite losing eight games last season, Louisiana Tech scored more points (35) than anyone else against unbeaten Boise State, which won by 10. It also lost by only eight points to LSU at Tiger Stadium.
Dooley's first UT team will be an underdog in most of its SEC games. My guess is it will pull off at least one upset.
Reason 3: These Vols will yawn in the face of adversity.
After all the obstacles they have encountered, they're accustomed to running uphill. So what's a few more hills?
Not only have the Vols been hardened by tough times, which include three head coaches in two years, they have as much incentive as any team in recent UT history. For the last eight months, they have been hearing how bad they're going to be - maybe even the worst team in school history.
That's powerful motivation.
Prediction: 6-6.
The Vols might be shorthanded from attrition but they're still good enough to win three of their four non-conference games and beat Vanderbilt. Somewhere along the way, they will come up with one much-needed upset, which will put them within a victory of a bowl bid when they close out the regular season against Kentucky.
I've got 25 reasons why they will beat Kentucky.
John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.
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Comments » 10
chbradshaw writes:
It's cute how John Adams thinks anyone cares about his opinion.
Complete irrelevance in the age of twitter.
Isn't it great how Wes Rucker keeps us up to date with everything UT and John Adams languishes as an old fashioned 1980s era sportswriter?
nwcs writes:
I think he cares less about the opinions of people who enjoy posting on these boards.
Mule_Days_King writes:
7 days.....
CoverOrange writes:
Actually a decent article by Mr. Adams. But, LSU will be out of the top 25 by the time we get to them and Ole Miss will not be considered an upset when do it them.
volman79 writes:
6-6 sounds good to me. Go Vols and mike hamilton is a piece of human waste! GBO
nextyear writes:
I like the article. But I'm thinking 7-5.
BigOrangeJeff writes:
Um, John, don't we need seven wins this year to be bowl eligible - if one of the wins is over UT-Martin?
hueypilot writes:
Nice work John. Good column.
duke.moses#299699 writes:
Not since we haven't used one before. You can't count one every 2 seasons & since this is a 1st well we can use it. Won't need it anyway as we win 8 or 9. Forget Adams he needs to go to USC & visit his sister!
GBO!!
VOLliven2it writes:
The only redeeming factor if we should happen not to win 6(I feel we will)might be that the administration would then consider the possibility that our AD needs to be looked at very closely. But we shall see.
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