John Adams: Bowl will gauge UT's improvement

No one questions that Tennessee has improved over the course of a season that began 2-6 and has progressed to 6-6. The debate lies in the degree of improvement.

That's why Thursday's Music City Bowl against North Carolina could be enlightening.

The Tar Heels won't remind you of Oregon or Alabama. But they won't remind you of Vanderbilt or Memphis, either.

They're somewhere in between the best and worst of UT's regular-season opponents, who ranged from unbeaten Oregon to one-win Memphis. They're also an improvement over anything UT has encountered during its current four-game winning streak.

Of UT's last four opponents, only 6-6 Kentucky qualified for a bowl. All four staggered across the regular-season finish line.

The Wildcats lost six of their last nine games. Ole Miss lost six of its last seven. Vanderbilt finished the season on a seven-game losing streak. Memphis lost its last nine.

Some foursome, huh?

To UT's credit, it beat all four by double-digit margins. Also to its credit, it scored more points on Ole Miss than anyone else did, and matched Florida in holding Kentucky to a season-low 14 points, a commendable feat in that the Wildcats managed at least 31 points in eight games.

You can't deny the improvement. You can wonder about the extent of it, which is where the Tar Heels come in.

North Carolina has suffered so much attrition through injuries and eligibility issues, it's a pale imitation of the possible Atlantic Coast Conference championship team it might have been. Three offensive starters presumably suffered season-ending injuries, though leading rusher Johnny White might be able to play against the Vols. Two other offensive starters, wide receiver Greg Little and fullback Devon Ramsey, were ruled ineligible following NCAA investigations into agent-related benefits and academic improprieties. Five defensive players also were ruled ineligible, and an injury to linebacker Bruce Carter deprived the Tar Heels of another starter.

While the losses kept the Tar Heels from making a championship run, they revealed the program's depth of talent assembled under fourth-year head coach Butch Davis. North Carolina still produced a winning record, beat three bowl teams and lost three other games to bowl teams by a total of 16 points.

With its full complement of players, North Carolina could have had a top-10 defense. Losses aside, it ranks 32nd nationally, which is noticeably higher than any of UT's last four opponents, whose averaging national ranking in total defense is 84th.

Since UT's running game is little more than a token gesture, North Carolina's defense against the Vols' recently productive passing attack could be a pivotal match-up.

In UT's last five games, it's averaging 320 yards passing. And you can't attribute that solely to lower-caliber opponents. Kentucky ranks 18th nationally in pass defense, giving up an average of only 183 yards per game. UT quarterback Tyler Bray passed for 354 yards against that defense.

North Carolina's defense will present more of challenge. So will its offense.

"It's going to be a great test for us," UT defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox said. "They're a very physical team. That's something we've had trouble with."

The Tar Heels aren't just big up front. Dwight Jones (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) heads up a tall group of receivers, all of whom have benefited from quarterback T.J. Yates' career year. The Yates-Brown combination could be scary for a defense that has been exploited by big wide receivers like Julio Jones of Alabama and A.J. Green of Georgia.

But that exploitation occurred in October, when the Vols were wobbling through the heart of their SEC schedule. They have tightened up their coverage and increased their pass rush since then.

Just how much? That's for the Tar Heels to determine.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com. Follow him at http://twitter.com/johnadamskns