On one Saturday, Alabama looked invincible in taking apart Florida. On the next, it looked ordinary in a two-touchdown loss to South Carolina.
The dramatic swing from one week to the next cautions you against making assumptions in college football. That’s why, despite watching the formerly No. 1-ranked Tide tumble against South Carolina, I’m hesitant to assume the SEC’s streak of national championships will end at four.
Oh, I know how it looks. Although LSU and Auburn are still unbeaten, neither seems capable of finishing that way. Offense is a guessing game for LSU, and Auburn’s defense just gave up 34 points to Kentucky. Moreover, both teams have to play three nationally ranked teams, including each other.
And the way the first half of the season has unfolded, there appear to be too many unbeaten teams with favorable schedules for a one-loss SEC team to play its way into the national championship game.
But the conference’s championship chances have appeared just as unlikely before.
LSU qualified for the national championship game with two regular-season losses in 2007. Two of the SEC’s other national champions in the streak had one loss.
Sure, it would take a series of unexpected outcomes for that to happen again. But college football is all about unexpected outcomes.
In the Big 12, you might expect a championship game matching undefeated Oklahoma and Nebraska.
The Sooners already have taken care of Texas. And their toughest road game is at Oklahoma State, which has given up 28 or more points in four consecutive games against Troy State, Tulsa, Texas A&M and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Yet how confident can you be about the Sooners when they have beaten Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati by a mere 12 points combined?
Nebraska has the advantage of a good defense in a conference woefully lacking in defense, it’s running the ball like the Cornhuskers of old, and it has an accommodating schedule. But can speedy quarterback Taylor Martinez stay healthy running the ball as often as he does?
No one questions Oregon’s offense. However, the Ducks have given up 31 points in two of their three Pac-10 games, and there are plenty of more challenges ahead. Four of the Ducks’ last six opponents already have upset nationally ranked teams.
Ohio State and Michigan State are unbeaten in the Big Ten, but both have to play at Iowa. Ask Penn State what an obstacle that can be when you are driving toward an unbeaten season.
Non-BCS powers like Boise State and the Utah-TCU winner might finish unbeaten. But you have to question whether top-25 voters would place them ahead of an SEC champion with a 12-1 record.
Outside forces might not be the SEC’s biggest concern. Unbeaten Auburn and LSU aren’t the only ones with imposing conference schedules in the second half of the season.
South Carolina has to play Arkansas and Florida on back-to-back Saturdays. Alabama has to play LSU and Auburn in November.
But those challenges offer hope as well. Any team that makes it through the SEC schedule and a conference playoff game with one loss still has a shot at playing for the national title.
Never mind that several BCS teams have breezed through the first half of the season. Breezes can die quickly.
Alabama will vouch for that.
John Adams may be reached at 865-342-6284 or adamsj@knoxnews.com.
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Comments » 8
huntined#565710 writes:
Just can't see a SEC team in it this year..too many good teams out there.
stevefrommemphis writes:
Does SEC give winner of Auburn - LSU the benefit of doubt on all close officiating calls in November -- the same way they did for Bama last year? That would suit me fine, since the Tide has to play both LSU and Auburn in November.
BlakeyWakey writes:
what makes me mad is when a team like Texas or USC were #1 and they loss they dropped like 3 spots! but an SEC drops almost out of the top 10
marinevol writes:
I just don't want to see a Boise State or TCU beat out the SEC Champion. After winning a conference championship over teams like Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU, South Carolina and Arkansas, you should not lose out to a team that goes undefeated, beating teams like Toledo, La Tech, Wyoming, Fresno State and New Mexico State, and plays on a blue field.
Timed_vol (Inactive) writes:
Same old cr@p for the SEC; without a playoff, we have to contend with teams from weak conferences.
HOWEVER: as a conference, I feel we are 'down' this year. UF has been horrible. LSU is a walking 'luck' machine. Bama?? I still think the QB is below-average.
If ever there was a year to demonstrate the need for a playoff, this is it. No really dominant teams, and it gets more to who has the easiest schedule. That is NOT how championships are supposed to be..yet
Georgia Tech, BYU, and (almost) Michigan-Ohio State have all benefited from the nonsense in place now. The SEC has proven itself the toughest contender time after time, but that isn't enough.
paradisetaxi writes:
"“We have so much development that we have to get. We’re so far behind fundamentally,” Dooley said. “We have such little experience in so many areas, that we need to go out there and block and tackle and go against each other at a fast pace and go play.” is he talking about the coaching staff...lol
Lizardgrad89 writes:
There are a lot of factors involved in how far a team rises or falls in the polls. If one or two other top 8 teams had lost, Bama might have found themselves at 4 or 5.
It is what it is, and 8 is where I pegged them to fall to, based on the poll situation and what else went on around the nation.
DRORANGELOVE writes:
Don't bet on it Steve. NOBODY in the SEC gets the preferential treatment that Ala and Florida gets, especially when either one of them is in the hunt for the Nat Championship. But Hey!!! Look at it on the bright side, last weekend was a GREAT weekend, ALA lost, FLA lost, and our little candy striped boy LANE lost his 2nd game in a row. Its great to be a VOL, even in a rebuilding year like this one. GBO
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